Wait, you think this last bit of the regular season doesn’t matter?! Welllllll you’re mostly right. I’m not here to defend March NBA basketball, but I am here to point out that some things still matter.
Beyond the obvious playoff seeding races, here are three things I’m watching in the final three weeks of the season.
1. How does Jonathan Kuminga fit in with the Warriors?
It’s been a bit of a slow roll to integrate Kuminga to the new-look Warriors. He missed more than two months with an ankle injury and, in that time, the Warriors overhauled everything by trading for Jimmy Butler.
Kuminga played well in his first game back two weeks ago, but it hasn’t been as smooth since. There have been frustrating moments, like when he went 2 for 10 and had twice as many fouls than made shots against the Bucks last week, or when he was limited to just six minutes down the stretch against the Hawks over the weekend.
“I think the biggest thing, honestly, is we are a different team,” coach Steve Kerr said recently in a radio interview. “We're a completely different team now since before his injury, and it's obviously because we have Jimmy Butler, and Jimmy is the best ISO player in the league, by analytics. So our style has shifted a little bit. We're playing through Jimmy and Steph. We have to have spacing, and we're doing different things now, so it's an adjustment for JK.”
Curry’s injury complicates things, but it’s hard to see lineups featuring Kuminga, Butler and Draymond Green succeeding even with Curry’s spacing. Kerr has mostly used Kuminga as Butler’s backup, but he doesn’t have the same feel, patience or 1 on 1 isolation ability as Butler. Kerr will also have to limit Butler’s minutes with Green in the playoffs because of spacing concerns. If those two are separated in the rotation, then where does Kuminga fit in?
Kuminga has shown he can be a game-changing talent at times. If the Warriors are going to make a sustained run, it feels like Kuminga would have to be part of it. But for someone who has struggled to adjust to Golden State’s system and mid-season changes through the first four seasons of his NBA career, this is something to keep an eye on.
2. Can the Lakers get their swag back?
The Lakers have lost three in a row, including two straight, against the Bulls and Magic, with LeBron James and Luka Doncic back in the lineup. After riding high after the Luka trade and goading talking heads into picking them as the Western Conference favorites, the Lakers have lost some of the wind in their sails.
The Lakers are a talented team, but they are also a vibes team. LeBron and Luka are more than elite basketball players, they are also the sort of guys whose presence embue confidence in their teammates. Coach JJ Redick talks the talk so much that his Common Projects sneakers tend to lead in that direction.
When things are going well, LeBron downright seems like the best teammate in the league to play with. Ditto for Luka. When things aren’t going well, the body language for both stars tends to go in another direction.
With the cupcake portion of their schedule out of the way, the Lakers will need to mine some of that good energy out of one of the league’s toughest remaining schedules, starting tonight with the Pacers.
Upcoming games against the Grizzlies, Rockets (twice), Warriors and Thunder (twice) won’t be easy, but they’ll also give the Lakers a chance to measure themselves against teams they could face in the playoffs. Win enough of those, and the Lakers could be feeling good when the postseason comes around.
3. Will the Nuggets defense show some fight?
The Nuggets have slipped to 22nd in defensive rating for the season and aren’t going in the right direction as they approach the playoffs. They are 25th in the last 10 games and just gave up 127.7 points per 100 possessions in a loss to the Bulls.
Probably because of stuff like this. Ugh.
I realize that Coby White is Michael Jordan now, but still.
This was a particularly bad night for Denver’s defense but not all that different than what its been all season. Yes, they were without Nikola Jokic for the fifth straight game, but they’ve also had Jokic most of the season and have still stunk on that end.
The Nuggets have never been en elite defensive team, but they were good enough when they won the championship in 2023. They ranked 15th in DRTG that season. They were eighth last season and were a tough matchup away from another appearance in the Western Conference finals.
They are much worse now. The loss of key vets and more playing time being divied out to younger players accounts for some of the slippage, but Jokic is also posting his worst advanced defensive metrics since the title.
It doesn’t help that Aaron Gordon hasn’t looked the same, in or out of the lineup, as he’s dealt with a nagging calf injury this season. But Gordon alone can’t fix Denver’s defense.
Maybe this is a case of been there, done that, and the Nuggets will ramp it up in the postseason. But I’m not nearly as confident in Denver’s defense as I am their offense. They don’t need to be elite on that end, but they need to be much better.
Bonus: When does Jayson Tatum return? Celtics coach Joe Mazzulla didn’t seem too concerned after Tatum sprained his ankle on Monday night. But we also see an injury impact the title race almost every season.
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NBA news roundup
- Jimmy Butler on Tuesday night returned to Miami for the first time since the trade. Then his Steph Curry-less Golden State Warriors got routed by the Miami Heat. Bam Adebayo was sensational, out-scoring Butler 27 to 11 and defending his former teammate for most of the game. Heat fans booed Butler every time he touched the ball.
- Damian Lillard has been diagnosed with a blood clot (medical term: deep vein thrombosis) in his right calf that will sideline him indefinitely, the Milwaukee Bucks announced. Reports indicate that there’s optimism that he can play again this season. The Bucks, once in clear control of the No. 4 seed, are at risk of falling to No. 6 for the playoffs.
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored 32 points, and the Oklahoma City Thunder became the first team to reach 60 wins this season with a win over the Sacramento Kings.
The NBA All-March Team
This isn’t necessarily a team of the very best players in March. Like, we’re not gonna but Shai on it. You already know he’s awesome. Think of this more as a fun way to give some shine to some players having a remarkable month.
G: Coby White: He’s averaging nearly 30 points on 50 percent shooting while the Bulls are 8-4 with him in the lineup this month. Only Giannis Antetokounmpo has scored more total points this month.
G: Jalen Green: The Rockets are 9-4 this month and surging back up the standings in large part because of Green’s shotmaking over this stretch. He has scored 30 in two straight games and 26 or more in five of his last six games. If every month was March, Jalen Green would be a first-ballot Hall of Famer.
F: Quentin Grimes: The pride of Philadelphia is putting up nearly identical numbers to Anthony Edwards this month, averaging 28 points on 52 percent shooting, 5 rebounds and 5 assists.
F: Deni Avdija: He’s averaging 23 points, 10 rebounds and 5 assists while shooting 51 percent overall and making the Trail Blazers look respectable. All for a couple of meh first-round picks. What a trade for Portland.
C: Ivica Zubac: The Clippers have out-scored opponents by 122 points with Zubac on the floor this month. (Only Naz Reid has a better mark.) He’s the backbone of the league’s second-best defense and routinely goes head-to-head with elite bigs and holds his own. It’s time we put Zubac in that conversation.