The Thunder had (almost) nothing to play for.
It was an outlier shooting game.
Ultimately, nothing really changed.
And yet, the Lakers’ win over the Thunder on Sunday brought some questions.
Until a team actually does the thing and climbs the highest mountain to win the NBA title, there will always be reservations about their ability to do so, especially when they’re as young as this Thunder team.
We can argue about experience, 16-game players, and the like in 14 days when the playoffs begin, but Sunday’s 126-99 win by the Lakeshow showcased a bigger problem for OKC.
The Thunder this season allow the highest 3-point attempt rate for opponents, league-wide. They allow a 45 percent 3-point rate defensively. They also hold opponents to the lowest 3-point percentage in the league.
Analytics folks believe, by and large, that 3-point opponent percentage is mostly luck-influenced. The idea is that you can’t actually make that much of an impact on an open 3-point shot attempt. OKC is trying to prove that wrong.
Now, if you watch OKC, you’ll believe it’s not luck. They close out with precision and intensity, forcing misses and often even blocking those 3-point attempts. They make second efforts and extra rotations like they are part of a sequential computer code.
But still, how can the Thunder defense be this historically great if they allow that many 3-point attempts in a league where 3-point attempts have never been more vital to team success?
On Sunday, the Lakers got up 42 3-point attempts, a rate that would be third-highest this season if sustained over the course of the season. The Lakers hit an outlier amount to be sure by making 22-of-40. That’s an outrageous shooting performance.
But here’s the problem: if you give up that many attempts, you open the door for those kinds of performances.
The counter is, understandably, that a team can’t shoot that well vs. OKC four times out of seven. But they don’t need to. Just one or two of those performances can flip a series if matchups or homecourt decide another two to three games.
One of the strengths of OKC is that they force the shots from teams from shooters they want to shoot. Second Spectrum data suggests that OKC is funneling the shots to the shooters they prefer.
Except in the playoffs, sometimes there is no good answer for who to allow to shoot, and even if there is, sometimes that player goes off because it’s the playoffs, and history is littered with role players having huge shooting performances (like PJ Washington last year).
This Thunder team reminds me so much of the 2019 Bucks. That team won 60 games with the best point differential in the league, but when they faced the Raptors, they ran into an outlier shooting performance by Fred VanVleet and shot terribly in their own right.
This isn’t to say that the Thunder can’t or won’t win the title. But for how strong their overall record and profile is, Sunday provided a reminder that in this era of parity, every team has flaws and weaknesses and all it takes is the right matchup and a little bit of shot variance to open the floodgates.
The Thunder are dominant.
But they’re not unbeatable. The Lakers proved that on Sunday.
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NBA news roundup:
- The Rockets beat the Warriors to slow down the supernova-hot dubs and clinch a playoff spot. The Rockets are now 96 percent or better by projections to clinch the 2-seed and have homecourt in the first two rounds. Alperen Şengün beasted the Warriors on the outside, and Draymond Green acted a fool. What else is new?
- The Nuggets lost their fourth in a row, their first four-game losing streak, as the Pacers walked out of Denver with a win. There’s now a very strong chance that the Nuggets wind up in the play-in tournament. To make matters worse, Jamal Murray’s hamstring injury is more severe than originally thought and there’s a chance that he misses the start of the playoffs according to Michael Malone.
- Jalen Brunson returned for the Knicks as they beat the hapless Suns. The now full-strength Knicks will hope that OG Anunoby’s resurgent play and Mitchell Robinson’s addition will help them find the right defensive balance before the playoffs.
Most likely playoff matchups
PACERS-BUCKS (4-5): Yes, again. The Pacers are 0-2 vs. the Bucks with two to play and one back in the loss column. It looks like we’ll see a rematch of the first-round upset last year, with Giannis back for the Bucks this time.
KNICKS-PISTONS (3-6): If the Bucks get the 5-seed, then the Pistons fall to six and take on the Knicks. This is either going to be a proving ground for the Knicks or a first-round upset. Cade Cunningham in the Garden could be electric.
ROCKETS-WOLVES: Minnesota has the tiebreaker over the Clippers and are likely to win a Play-In game against another team. This would be a fascinating defensive battle.
LAKERS-WARRIORS: Because of course, we need one last showdown of Steph vs. LeBron.
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