The Whiteboard: The secret sauce to the Cavs’ historic offense

Let’s talk about what is quietly becoming the most important part of the NBA court: The non-restricted area mid-range.

Now, I know everyone is talking about 3-point shooting and how much of it there is, and winning the 3-point battle is still a great predictor of success (teams win 74.6 percent of their games this season when they make 20 or more 3s). But I’d like to buck the trend and talk about an overlooked area from where the NBA’s best team is dominating. 

Yes, the Cleveland Cavaliers are making a higher percentage of their 3s than any team in the league, and that has a lot to do with their success. But there’s a reason why the Cavs still have a winning record in the rare contest they struggle from beyond the arc. That’s because the Cavs squeeze every bit of juice from the shots that defenses willingly give up in the non-restricted mid-range.

Not only do the Cavs lead the league in 3-point shooting percentage, they are also dominating from 5-14 feet, the area outside the restricted area but below the free-throw line.

Two percentage points separate the Cavaliers from the second-best 3-point shooting team, and they also have a two-percentage-point lead in our sweet spot. The Cavs are making 53.2 percent of their shots from in the non-restricted area paint, according to NBA.com’s database. In the heat maps below comparing the Cavaliers and Portland Trail Blazers, you can see the difference between an elite paint-shooting team and a poor one. Portland makes layups at a fine rate, but Cleveland is shooting at the same or better rate further away from the basket. 

As NBA defenses have developed to take away the mid-range, this area has become a field of low-hanging fruit. Defenses routinely leave this area open, preferring to drop their centers to take away layups and chase ball-handlers off the 3-point line. Teams that can turn what is considered an inefficient part of the floor into an efficient shot create a sizeable advantage. In other words, taking what the defense gives them, and beating them with it.

The Cavaliers are owners of the league’s best record and top offense. They look every bit a contender. According to NBA.com’s John Schuhmann, who ranked the Cavaliers first in his weekly power rankings, the Cavaliers have one of the best offenses in league history when compared to the league’s average efficiency.

“The Cavs have now scored 9.2 more points per 100 possessions than the league average (112.5), which would be the biggest differential in the 29 seasons for which we have play-by-play data, topping that of the 2003-04 Mavs (9.0). Their effective field goal percentage of 59.7% would be the best mark in NBA history by a huge margin.”

As Jared Dubin wrote in his “Last Night in Basketball” Substack, Cleveland’s offense is in the same company as the 73-win Golden State Warriors. Of the seven previous teams in the same company, five of them won the championship, including last season’s Boston Celtics.

This is a ginormous leap from an outfit that ranked 16th in offensive rating last season and did not change its personnel. Darius Garland often goes overlooked among the league’s best point guards, but his bounce-back season is the biggest driver of Cleveland’s humming offense. 

Garland is a non-restricted area midrange assassin. Garland is making a league-leading 65.9 percent of his shots from this area of the court (among players taking at least two such attempts per game). Jarrett Allen is third, at 62.7 percent. For reference, the NBA’s best offensive player, Nikola Jokic, is making a still-elite 55.5% of his shots from this area.

The trick is that Garland doesn’t need to get all the way to the basket to essentially shoot a layup. This shot from Monday’s win over the Warriors was technically from 10 feet away. He makes it look easy.

As Garland drives into the paint, the natural instinct for a defender is to back up and wall off the basket. But Garland’s floater is deadly accurate, and defenses are continuously baited into giving them to him uncontested.

That’s an enormous advantage for an offense. Every defense in league history starts with the premise of taking away layups. Modern defenses have paired that with running shooters off the 3-point line. As a result, players like Garland, who can turn inefficient shots into efficient ones, are among the most valuable in the NBA. Lemons into lemonade. Water into wine. Etc.

Not every team can be 3-and-D personified like the Celtics. Even if the Cavaliers’ outside shooting cools off, they have multiple ways to score. That doesn’t mean they are or should be favorites over the Celtics. After all, the Dallas Mavericks made last season’s Finals using a similar formula, with Luka Doncic also ranking among the best non-restricted paint area shooters, and lost in five games. Still, there’s no out-Celticsing the Celtics.

Can the Cavs do what the Mavs couldn’t and beat the Celtics in the postseason? Who knows? I’d love a playoff series between two elite teams to find out.

Stats accurate before Dec. 31’s games.

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NBA news and rumors roundup:

• A promising start to the season for the Pistons hit a major obstacle as guard Jaden Ivey had to be stretchered off the court after suffering a leg injury Wednesday against the Magic. There are no additional updates at this time but it seems extremely serious and could be season-ending.

• Retirement seems to be on the horizon for LeBron James but he wants everyone to know that when he leaves it will be a choice. Speaking with reporters on Monday he said, "To be honest, if I really wanted to, I could probably play this game at a high level probably for about another — it's weird that I might say this — but probably about another five to seven years, if I wanted to. But I'm not going to do that."

• As his career winds down, those of his sons are just ramping up. Bronny is currently TK and LeBron's younger son, Bryce, has just committed to the University of Arizona. The No. 47-ranked shooting guard in his class, Bryce will be a freshman for the 2025-26 season.