The Whiteboard: The two-faced Lakers

I can't figure out the Los Angeles Lakers.

Granted, I can't figure out a lot of things — long division, how to put a fitted sheet on my bed, black holes, credit cards — but I don't have to talk about any of those at my job, so I've been fine to this point.

If you only watched the 26 Lakers wins this season, you'd confidently proclaim them contenders in the West. Recent wins against Boston and Golden State were extremely convincing; in the Boston game, three players scored over 20 points and Dalton Knecht and Gabe Vincent pitched in great bench minutes. Two days later against Golden State, the Lakers completely shut down Steph Curry in the second half and won in the Bay.

If you only watched the Lakers 18 losses, you might think they're a bottom-dweller in the Western Conference. Their twelve double-digit losses are most among any of the top ten teams in the West, and their -15.8 net rating in losses is third-worst in the NBA — only Portland and Washington lose worse when they lose.

And while the 26-18 Lakers definitely aren't in the basement of the NBA — in fact, they're currently No. 5 in the West — some of those wins might be deceiving, too. If history is to be believed, these Lakers are facing an uphill climb in the postseason if they keep down the path they're on now.

I think these Lakers are good; but it's hard to believe in them when looking at how teams like them fared in the past.

Los Angeles might not be convincing enough in wins

The blowout losses are pretty bad... but, surprisingly, I want to talk about how the Lakers look in wins.

Although Los Angeles has some solid victories on their resume, they aren't nearly as dominant as contenders tend to be in wins. In LA's 26 wins, the Lakers have a net rating of +9.0. That sounds pretty good... until you look at all the other true contenders in the NBA.

Boston, New York, Oklahoma City and Memphis all have net ratings over plus-15.0 in wins. Denver, Cleveland and Milwaukee are all over plus-13.0, and the Rockets are the lowest of teams I believe to be contenders, at plus-12.2. In other words, the best NBA teams win going away. LA doesn't; their mark of plus-9.0 is 23rd in the league.

In a competitive NBA, close games are to be expected, so this might not be a death sentence. These are still wins, after all, and there's still plenty of season left to play.

But historically, a plus-9.0 net rating in wins is the kind of number posted by the worst teams in the NBA — not a team with two All-Stars and deep playoff aspirations. Since 2010, only three teams have finished above .500 with a net rating in wins of plus-9.0 or worse—the 2015-16 Bulls (42-40) the 2016-17 Wizards (49-33) and the 2022-23 Heat, who went 44-38.

Those Heat are the only NBA team with a net rating of plus-9.0 or lower in wins to make the conference finals in the past 25 years. Plus, as we know, those Heat were pretty much a statistical outlier in every way possible. That's not exactly who the Lakers should attempt to model their season after.

So what's the takeaway here? That Los Angeles wins close and loses big?

Yes — but more than that, the takeaway is that despite a good record, the Lakers as currently constructed probably aren't dominant enough to make a deep playoff run. Eventually, you have to overpower opponents, and I don't think these Lakers can overpower any of the West's best. Can that change?

Sure! Maybe this team will start blowing opponents out. Maybe adding Zach LaVine or Walker Kesller or Bradley Beal or Jerami Grant will push them over the top. But if Rob Pelinka and the Lakers front office decide the current roster is enough to compete in April and May... history will not be on their side.

Perhaps contrary to what you just read... I think this team is pretty good. JJ Redick is a legitimately good coach, Anthony Davis posted 42 and 23 last night, Austin Reaves can pace an offense, LeBron still has some juice (most nights) and the supporting cast is pretty balanced.

I should also mention that if the season were to end right now, the Lakers, Suns, Pistons and Hawks would all end the season with a net rating in wins of plus-9.0 or worse. That signals, to me, that an NBA full of parity gives a better shot to teams like the Lakers, who aren't rolling over the rest of the league... but are doing enough to stay afloat in a deep, messy Western Conference.

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NBA news roundup

• After dismantling a hot Kings team 143-120, the Knicks... dismantled a hot Grizzlies team, 143-106. With the Nuggets, Lakers and Rockets up next, Tom Thibodeau has his team rolling. With the Cavs cooling off and the Celtics (somewhat) slumping... this Knicks team is playing like a team that can win the Eastern Conference.

• Earlier in the season, I said that Jimmy Butler on the Suns is the funniest outcome. I was wrong — Jimmy Butler back on the Sixers would be, by far, the funniest outcome.

Dillon Brooks is on a redemption arc

As far back as I can remember, I do not recall an NBA team being so outright about not wanting to bring back an NBA player as the Grizzlies were with Dillon Brooks a few years ago. They said under no circumstances would they bring back Brooks.

Harsh!

Well, Brooks is living his best life in Houston now. After tying a Rockets franchise record with 10 3-pointers on Monday, Brooks is now shooting over 38 percent from deep, a career-best. He's an invaluable part of a Rockets team that just beat Cleveland twice then Boston on the road. These guys are legit, and Brooks is a huge part of their ascension.