The Oklahoma City Thunder are having one of the best seasons in NBA history. They may finish with the best net rating, point differential and SRS (point diff vs. strength of schedule) in NBA history.
We can debate if this young team is going to live up to the unreal expectations they’ve set with their performance. There will be time for that.
For today, let’s talk about the rest of the West and how they’re both all capable of making the Finals if OKC slips somehow and how they’re all capable of losing in the first round. No one knows what’s going to happen… and that’s awesome. Let’s go team by team.
Houston Rockets
Best stats: Fourth in defense, schedule-adjusted. 12-7 against teams over 60 win percentage (at time of matchup), 19-15 against teams over .500 for the season.
Biggest question: Can a team without a closer close games? Maybe Jalen Green is secretly a 16-gamer. Maybe Alperen Sengun is. Maybe FVV has one more run of that in him? But if not, how many series can you win with ferocious defense without having the best player on the floor at any time in a series?
Denver Nuggets
Best stats: Third in schedule-adjusted offense, best offensive rating league-wide among qualified players when Jokic is on the court, second best net-rating in clutch-time.
Biggest questions: Does defense matter? Like, at all? Denver is an elite fourth-quarter defense, so the idea is that they have a switch. But every other number, from opponent 3-point rate to opponent points in the paint, to points allowed off turnovers and transition defense and the good ol’ eye test, tells us this team can’t stop a cold. If Denver has no defensive floor, and has a bad record vs. good teams, can they really make a run?
Los Angeles Lakers
Best Sstats: Leads the league in “traded for Luka Dončić for almost nothing, second best pick-and-roll defense, second in free throw rate
Biggest questions: Can you really just throw together a half-built roster and win? Luka’s awesome but hasn’t been awesome since the trade by his standards, at least in terms of efficiency. The defense was incredible for three weeks and has been rotten since. Is the scouting report out on them? Can you win multiple rounds with Jaxson Hayes at center? Is anyone, and I mean anyone, going to actually try and attack Austin Reaves or just let him run over you? The Lakers are the team I believe the most in from this group.
Memphis Grizzlies
Best stats: Were pretty much awesome all over until about January 15, elite transition offense, positional versatility.
Biggest questions: Are they just cooked? The whole team fell apart leading to Taylor Jenkins being fired. The team looks disconnected and lost. What are they elite at, at this point? The defense is 28th over the last few months. I don’t know what an inspired run from this team would even look like at this point.
Los Angeles Clippers
Best stats: Elite defense at all levels, rim protection, tough shot making, Offensive rating with Kawhi Leonard on the floor: 117.
Biggest questions: The Clippers have all the makings of a dangerous squad. Star power with Kawhi, Harden, and a terrific season from Norman Powell. The defense is nasty with Ivica Zubac and Kris Dunn. They have role players who can deliver. Is Kawhi going to be available? Is this all regular season smoke and mirrors? Here’s maybe a bigger problem: the Clippers are 28th in 3-point attempts per 100 possessions, 26th in makes. They might just get math’d out.
Golden State Warriors
Best stats: Elite defense, fourth-best net rating since the trade for Butler (including second best defense), lead the league in “having Steph Curry”
Biggest questions: This is going to sound weird but they can’t really … shoot? They’re 17th even since the trade in effective field goal percentage, 21st on the season. They take and make a bunch of threes but hardly shoot at the rim (21st in rim rate) and don’t make a lot when they do (21st in field-goal percentage at the rim).
Minnesota Timberwolves
Best stats: Still a beast defensively, don’t foul and contest everything. Third in 3-point makes per 100 possessions.
Biggest questions: Minnesota should be better by all accounts. They have been in 21 3-point games and been on the wrong end of a lot of coin flips. But at some point you are what the record says. Are they a sleeping giant or just a paper tiger?
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NBA news roundup
- The Cavaliers reached the 60-win mark with a solid win over the Clippers (no Kawhi Leonard). They are unlikely to reach the 67-wins all-time franchise wins mark, which would require them to go undefeated, but this will go down as one of the all-time Cavs teams, along with the 2009, 2015, and 2016 teams.
- The Houston Rockets annihilated the Phoenix Suns, and to make matters worse for Phoenix, Kevin Durant suffered an ankle injury. Sunday might have been the nail in the Suns’ play-in coffin.
- The Warriors took over the 6th spot in the West with the Clippers’ loss and their blistering of the Spurs. Some big matchups are on the horizon for Golden State to determine their playoff seeding.
- A kerfuffle broke out in Pistons vs. Cavs that saw multiple players and coaches ejected. The Pistons, already without Cade Cunningham, lit a fire in the Wolves as Minnesota stormed back for a big win. Expect suspensions from the fracas that spilled into the fans and knocked over a kiddo courtside. (He’s fine, Alex Rodriguez got him a Naz Reid jersey.)
Top-5 reasons Taylor Jenkins got fired, No-Joke Edition
1. Ja Morant has been unable to stay on the floor and return to his former level of performance.
2. The defense dropped off a cliff over the last three months despite still ranking top 10 on the season.
3. Zach Edey didn’t get enough touches and minutes because when you want to win, playing a plodding rookie is not going to help you.
4. Santi Aldama and Desmond Bane yelled and shoved each other on the bench one time.
5. Expectations for NBA coaches have reached absolutely ridiculous standards that result in great coaches getting fired.