Voter Fatigue: Why is Lamar Jackson not the MVP favorite over Josh Allen again?

The Associated Press has presented an award recognizing one player for the best individual regular season performance since 1957. Since then, the awards presented by the nonprofit news outlet have been recognized as the NFL’s de facto official awards.

Despite being decided by a neutral third-party source, the voting process for the league’s annual honors is far from perfect — particularly when it comes to deciding the NFL Most Valuable Player. Over the years, the prestigious award has become less true to its name. Rather than determining the player who was truly the most valuable asset in the league, the award has been subject to media bias.

Although the 2024 NFL Most Valuable Player won’t be announced until the NFL Honors award show, the race for the coveted award has dwindled down to two finalists: Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson and Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen.

Is Lamar Jackson falling victim to NFL MVP voter fatigue?

Allen is currently the betting favorite to win the award with -250 odds and Jackson is second on the list with +160 odds, according to BetMGM Sportsbook. Heading into the final games of the regular seasons, debates have raged about which quarterback deserves to win the coveted award, and some have suggested that Jackson is being slighted due to voter fatigue.

Both quarterbacks were selected in the first round of the 2018 NFL Draft. Jackson, the reigning MVP, has already won the MVP twice in his seven-year career. Allen, on the other hand, has yet to earn the distinction.

Jackson has arguably had the more impressive campaign — and he’s certainly been superior in terms of statistical output. Through 16 games, Jackson has 3,955 passing yards for 39 passing touchdowns and four interceptions to go along with 852 rushing yards and four rushing scores on 130 carries. He became the NFL’s all-time quarterback rushing record during a dominant 31-2 victory against the Houston Texans on Wednesday. Through 15 games, Allen has posted 3,549 passing yards for 26 touchdowns and six interceptions. He’s added 514 rushing yards and 11 scores on 97 carries.

Understanding why Allen is favored for the award requires looking beyond the statistical output. Entering the 2024 season, the Buffalo Bills were considered to be in a rebuilding phase. Allen lost his most trustworthy target in wide receiver Stefon Diggs, and Buffalo underwent significant turnover in the offseason. Still, Allen has carried the Bills to a 12-3 record and the AFC’s No. 2 seed. Allen has also defeated the league’s top teams in both conferences. He handed the Kansas City Chiefs their lone loss of the season in Week 11, and he dismantled the Detroit Lions in Week 15. Allen suffered a head-to-head loss against Jackson’s Ravens in Week 4, but it’s no secret that Baltimore entered the season with a more talented roster than Buffalo. 

Voter fatigue — and voter bias — is not a new phenomenon for the NFL’s annual awards. An objective assessment would have awarded head coach Bill Belichick as Coach of the Year more often than not during his 24-year tenure with the New England Patriots. After winning the award three times in his first 11 seasons, Belichick led New England to eight consecutive AFC Championship Game appearances and three Super Bowl titles. Yet, the all-time great coach didn’t win the Coach of the Year award in any of those seasons. Kansas City Chiefs head coach Andy Reid is facing similar fatigue — despite leading the NFL’s reigning dynasty, the coach has not won a single Coach of the Year award during his tenure in Kansas City.

Ultimately, the decision could come down to how the quarterbacks perform in their final games of the season. Regardless of which quarterback wins, there’s bound to be some backlash from the fanbases. 

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