During his first MLB start against the Cubs in Japan, Los Angeles Dodgers' top international signing, Roki Sasaki, flashed brilliance but was pulled after just under three innings due to some command problems. However, after his last start on Saturday, alarm bells began ringing loudly.
Sasaki was quick to allow four walks and three hits. Unable to shake his jitters, the young fireballer was pulled before he could finish the second inning. Sasaki gave up two runs to the Detroit Tigers. In just under five innings pitched on the season, Sasaki has issued an MLB-worst nine walks and owns a rather frightening 5.79 ERA. What was even more telling in the eyes of most was the tears Sasaki shed after taking his spot on the bench.
Fans, former players, analysts and commentators alike were quick to pounce; some calling him soft and others speculating that he could be sent to the minors or relegated to the bullpen. But before we jump to conclusions, let’s take a step back and assess Sasaki’s situation.
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Is Sasaki really the star we thought he was over the offseason?
If we were halfway through the season and Sasaki had been repeating Saturday’s performance on a regular basis, the critical chatter we have been hearing would be more than valid (besides the soft allegations; he’s not the first pitcher to cry in the dugout). However, this is just one start. For just about any other pitcher, this is just chalked up as a bad start.
While Sasaki was shaky in his first start as well when he gave up one run over three innings, it was still a solid outing. However, when considering his walk rate, there are some legitimate concerns about his command. Nine walks in less than five innings are never delightful, yet there is one basic fact we can’t ignore. This is Sasaki’s first few starts in the MLB. We can expect him to be rattled a few times as he adjusts. To get a better idea of what we should expect from Sasaki going forward, let’s explore his problem in more detail and try to determine if this sample size truly reflects his MLB potential.
In the MLB, Sasaki’s current walks per nine innings number (BB/9) stands at 17.4. Over his entire four-year career in Japan, this same stat stands at 2 walks per nine innings. At a glance, there is a massive disparity between these two figures. And while there is a difference between the NPB and the MLB, the large gap between these numbers suggests that we haven’t yet seen Sasaki at his best. So, it is likely safe to assume that Sasaki’s walk rate will even out at least to an extent. But beyond this glaring issue, there are some hidden qualities to like in his metrics.
While still a small sample size, according to Baseball Savant, Sasaki has been proficient in pitching to weak contact. His opponents’ average exit velocity is recorded at 81.5 mph. Thus far, Sasaki has allowed four hits, none of which went for extra bases. In his last outing, it was a soft-hit infield single that produced trouble. So, beyond his command problem, it seems he had some bad luck play into his struggles. And while his command woes are still concerning, it is way too early to panic. Sasaki has explosive potential, and it is likely only a matter of time before we see it.