If the Milwaukee Bucks don’t trade Giannis Antetokounmpo, they’ll be stranding him in a limbo tantamount to stories from the Old Testament. During the middling Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis era, the Bucks were stuck in the middle as an 8-seed with no upside. Jabari Parker flamed out, but their franchise trajectory was saved by a two-time MVP being scooped in the middle of the first-round.
The Bucks are back in developmental hell, but the pit is deeper this time. Trading Khris Middleton before the All-Star break was the beginning of the end. Benching Andre Jackson.Jr., plus trading AJ Johnson and Marshon Beauchamp was a signal that they were going all in on the present at the expense of the future. For the next few seasons, the Bucks will be a League Pass team — for the teams that control their first-rounders. Why do the Bucks need to embrace a rebuild? Because putting a deer out of their misery is sometimes the humane thing to do.
Milwaukee doesn't control their draft picks
It takes seven years for negative information to disappear from a credit report. Start the clock for the Milwaukee Bucks. They owe picks or swaps on each of their first-round picks until 2031 which means winning the draft lottery would only benefit their former trade partners.
Their 2025 first-round pick was shipped out five years ago in the deal that landed Jrue Holiday! Ultimately, it was worth it, but things get dicey from here. The Pelicans are flush with talent in a stacked Western Conference, but own pick swaps with Milwaukee in 2026 and 2027. The 2028 pick swap is a convoluted swamp involving multiple teams. The Blazers own another pick swap in 2030.
Jon Horst has trademarked mortgaging the future to capitalize on the present since becoming a general manager. Milwaukee doesn’t have a single homegrown rotation player on their roster. Of all the trades Horst has made as general manager, he outdid himself when he traded Middleton and a 20-year-old wing with promise for Kyle Kuzma. The coffers are empty and they aren’t a free agent destination like L.A. or New York. It’s best this happens now and not in three years when Antetokounmpo is disgruntled and souring on ownership.
The Bucks are saddled with aging one-dimensional role players
This is an aging roster populated by an inflexible ensemble. Golden State is old, but a majority of Steph Curry's rotation supporting cast have been chameleons who can take on any role depending on the matchups or the lineups. The Bucks are anachronistic. Bobby Portis is an exceptional scorer off the bench. Brook Lopez defends the paint but is a blow-by candidate when he has to step outside his office space.
Kuzma functions in a single-minded score-first role and doesn’t even do that well. He is a volume shooter with double vision, who offers no secondary playmaking upside and little value as a switchable defender. These Bucks fit the mold of a contender from 2013, not 2025 when teams have multiple shooters surrounding the arc who can also operate as secondary playmakers and defend 1 through 5.
In Game 1 against Indiana without Lillard, Kuzma delivered his Tony Snell meme magnum opus by becoming the first player in NBA history to play 20 minutes and record 0 points, rebounds, assists, or steals in a playoff game. By the end of the season, Kuzma’s trade value was damaged goods. By the time Milwaukee was eliminated, his resale value was nil.
Gary Trent Jr. is their best trade asset as a floor spacer who can be entrusted to defend ferociously for extended minutes. He’s also playing on an expiring contract and still 26. The Bucks swingman would be a skeleton key for any top-four team in the east or west, but Milwaukee would be wasting his prime years on a team on a downward slope.
The Damian Lillard injury
Lillard’s injury was essentially a coup de grâce to the Bucks' odds of constructing a title contender around Giannis. Lillard won’t play next season. If he does, it will be in limited minutes well after the All-Star break. Lillard’s game isn’t centered exclusively around his quick-twitch athleticism or a nimbleness, so his decline may not be as dramatic as John Wall’s after he ruptured his during the 2019 season. However, he is also older than Wall was. Lillard is not as impossibly long as Kevin Durant. He’ll be two years older and recovering from a devastating injury by the time he plays significant minutes again.
Waiting two years would be a risk worth taking if the Bucks were already a championship contender. However, they were winless against the top-3 seeds in the East and the Pacers growth spurt has them looking down on Giannis and the Bucks. Lillard’s injury gives the Bucks permission to embrace a rebuild that it became apparent was needed for much of this season.
The unholy trinity of Doc Rivers, Jon Horst and Jimmy Haslem
His coaching acumen, stagnant offenses and rotations left something to be desired. At a time when free-flowing, motion offenses have swept the league, Milwaukee executes a ball-stopping scheme that requires Lillard and Antetokounmpo to create open shooters or simply do it all themselves. Those issues reflected back at them in crunch time in Game 5 against Indiana.
The Bucks were the NBA's third-worst clutch time offense this season behind only the Miami Heat and Toronto Raptors. Milwaukee's 101.4 offensive rating in the last five minutes of close minutes was 18.3 points worse than Indiana's. Their only saving grace was the defense that led the league in points per 100 possessions. He’s the head coach that co-owner Jimmy Haslem advocated for over Kenny Atkinson.
The unholy trinity of Haslam, who has been running the Cleveland Browns into the ground for a decade, Rivers, and Horst cannot be entrusted with salvaging Antetokounmpo’s golden years. His presence has smoothed over their incompetence for years, but it would be wise if both parties part amicably before they realize how much deeper the bottom can be.