NFL mock drafts for next year’s class a week after the draft concluded are never a good idea. They are truly speculative and merely blend last season’s hype with overreacting on the college football players that could have big seasons.
So paying attention to any mock drafts right now and taking them to heart is just setting yourself up to be let down this time next year. There’s a lot of hype around Arch Manning and his pending declaration for the NFL Draft. But how likely is it he actually declares for the draft after his only season as the starter at Texas.
Look at the mock draft for the 2025 NFL Draft. Carson Beck was supposed to be the first quarterback taken, per PFF, and he opted for the transfer portal and landed at Miami. Shedeur Sanders was supposed to be the second quarterback taken at No. 9 and he fell all the way to the fifth round.
Quinn Ewers was expected to be the third quarterback taken and at No. 25 and he ended up being a seventh-round pick. I say all of this to say, mock drafts this early are nothing more than a ploy to drum up hype on a player that may or may not pan out.
That could be the case with Manning, assuming he even decides to declare for the NFL Draft at that.
Arch Manning should learn from Quinn Ewers and forgo the 2026 NFL Draft
Manning should learn from the fact that Ewers probably got terrible advice to declare for the draft instead of staying in college for another year. This has nothing to do with NIL money or winning a championship. Ewers’ final season at Texas was marred with injuries and the Longhorns feeling pressure to prematurely turn to Manning.
Beck realized he wasn’t the premier draft pick he was at the beginning of the season and knew he needed another year of college football to prepare for the draft. That’s the same dilemma Manning will be faced.
He has to see the value of experience in college. I’m not saying he has to be Dillon Gabriel or Tyler Shough and be older than 25 years old before finally exhausting all of his eligibility, but he could probably benefit from another season.
Anthony Richardson is a player that had a lot of potential, was taking inside the top 5 and now the Indianapolis Colts aren’t fully committed to Richardson, regardless of how much they dodge the topic. Does Manning really want that for his NFL career?
Probably not. There’s value in returning for another year of college football and Manning should take careful consideration before he enters the draft. Ewers thought he would possibly be a second round pick and he was almost an undrafted free agent.
Let's not forget that Arch's uncles, Peyton and Eli, all spent more than two years as a starting quarterback for Tennessee and Ole Miss, respectively. Arch is entering his first season as Texas' starting quarterback, so it's not exactly a given he'll jump to the NFL immediately afterward.
Mock drafts before a game has even been played is a dangerous game. But after the season, if Manning doesn’t declare for the draft, don’t be shocked. He could avoid the same fate as Ewers or even Richardson.