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Will SMU make the CFP with loss in ACC Championship Game? Seed projection win or lose

A win will get SMU into the playoff, but a loss could have the Mustangs on the brink of elimination.

By John Buhler

Rhett Lashlee, SMU Mustangs
Rhett Lashlee, SMU Mustangs / Sam Hodde/GettyImages
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No team has a greater chance of impacting the College Football Playoff field this weekend than SMU. At 11-1 (8-0), the Mustangs will face the Clemson Tigers in the ACC Championship with two playoff berths potentially on the line — definitely at least one. A win would get either the Mustangs or Tigers in, but even with a loss to Clemson, there is still a chance that SMU could get in. It all comes down to Alabama.

Entering conference championship weekend, eight teams were seen as playoff locks, meaning they are getting in no matter what: Georgia, Indiana, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State, Tennessee and Texas. Boise State has essentially clinched its playoff berth by beating UNLV on Friday night to win the Group of Five. There is no way Army or any other G5 champion can catch them.

Heading into conference championship Saturday, here are the penultimate College Football Playoff rankings.

  1. Oregon Ducks (12-0)
  2. Texas Longhorns (11-1)
  3. Penn State Nittany Lions (11-1)
  4. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-1)
  5. Georgia Bulldogs (10-2)
  6. Ohio State Buckeyes (10-2)
  7. Tennessee Volunteers (10-2)
  8. SMU Mustangs (11-1)
  9. Indiana Hoosiers (11-1)
  10. Boise State Broncos (11-1)
  11. Alabama Crimson Tide (9-3)
  12. Miami Hurricanes (10-2)
  13. Ole Miss Rebels (9-3)
  14. South Carolina Gamecocks (9-3)
  15. Arizona State Sun Devils (10-2)
  16. Iowa State Cyclones (10-2)
  17. Clemson Tigers (9-3)
  18. BYU Cougars (10-2)
  19. Missouri Tigers (9-3)
  20. UNLV Rebels (10-2)
  21. Illinois Fighting Illini (9-3)
  22. Syracuse Orange (9-3)
  23. Colorado Buffaloes (9-3)
  24. Army Black Knights (10-1)
  25. Memphis Tigers (10-2)

After Tuesday night's rankings, these are the 12 teams projected to make the playoff right now.

  1. Oregon Ducks (12-0) (Projected Big Ten champion)
  2. Texas Longhorns (11-1) (Projected SEC champion)
  3. SMU Mustangs (11-1) (Projected ACC champion)
  4. Boise State Broncos (11-1) (Projected Mountain West/Group of Five champion)
  5. Penn State Nittany Lions (11-1) (Projected Big Ten runner-up)
  6. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-1) (Projected national independent at-large)
  7. Georgia Bulldogs (10-2) (Projected SEC runner-up)
  8. Ohio State Buckeyes (10-2) (Projected Big Ten at-large)
  9. Tennessee Volunteers (10-2) (Projected SEC at-large)
  10. Indiana Hoosiers (11-1) (Projected Big Ten at-large)
  11. Alabama Crimson Tide (9-3) (Projected SEC at-large)
  12. Arizona State Sun Devils (10-2) (Projected Big 12 champion)

And for a little bit more context, these would be the first four teams out of the playoff picture.

  • 13. Miami Hurricanes (10-2) (ACC)
  • 14. Ole Miss Rebels (9-3) (SEC)
  • 15. South Carolina Gamecocks (9-3) (SEC)
  • 16. Iowa State Cyclones (10-2) (Projected Big 12 runner-up)

Should SMU take care of business and beat Clemson, here is what the playoff picture will look like.

Where would SMU Mustangs be seeded if they beat the Clemson Tigers?

Whoever wins the ACC is going to be in. SMU is already ranked inside of the top 10 and Clemson is ranked ahead of Army, who just won the American Conference. Obviously, Clemson would not be making the playoff with a fourth loss on the season. But a Clemson loss would also affect others. It may dampen Georgia's playoff seeding a bit since that may no longer be a quality win. It would also officially eliminate South Carolina from any playoff discussion.

Assuming chalk everywhere else, here is what the playoff field would look like after this weekend.

  1. Oregon Ducks (13-0) (Big Ten champion)
  2. Texas Longhorns (12-1) (SEC champion)
  3. SMU Mustangs (12-1) (ACC champion)
  4. Boise State Broncos (12-1) (Mountain West/Group of Five champion)
  5. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-1) (National independent at-large)
  6. Ohio State Buckeyes (10-2) (Big Ten at-large)
  7. Georgia Bulldogs (10-3) (SEC runner-up)
  8. Penn State Nittany Lions (11-2) (Big Ten runner-up)
  9. Tennessee Volunteers (10-2) (SEC at-large)
  10. Indiana Hoosiers (11-1) (Big Ten at-large)
  11. Alabama Crimson Tide (9-3) (SEC at-large)
  12. Arizona State Sun Devils (11-2) (Big 12 champion)

SMU would be seeded No. 3 with an ACC Championship victory, and deservedly so. The Mustangs' only loss on the year came way back in September to BYU before they made a quarterback change. This is a different team with Kevin Jennings as their starting quarterback. The only differences in seeding we would see is Penn State being punished for losing the Big Ten and having no good wins.

The Mustangs would be more than comfortably in the playoff picture in this scenario. However, they would be drawing a brutal quarterfinals matchup in their first-ever playoff game. This is because they would be getting the winner of No. 6 vs. No. 11 matchup between Ohio State and Alabama. Both teams offer a ton of variance, but I would argue that they both have a higher ceiling than SMU does.

Should Clemson somehow pull off the upset, here is how far SMU could drop in the playoff picture.

How far would SMU fall if Mustangs lose to Clemson Tigers in ACC title?

This is the situation everyone is keeping an eye on. No matter what happens in Atlanta or Indianapolis, all four Big Ten and SEC finalists will be getting in. The winners will get the top two seeds, while the losers will certainly be seeded somewhere in the No. 6 to No. 10 range, likely No. 7 and No. 8. The first-round seeding may be done in a way to avoid first-round matchups we have already seen.

Assuming chalk everywhere else, here is how Clemson winning could impact the playoff picture.

  1. Oregon Ducks (13-0) (Big Ten Champion)
  2. Texas Longhorns (12-1) (SEC Champion)
  3. Boise State Broncos (12-1) (Mountain West/Group of Five champion)
  4. Arizona State Sun Devils (11-2) (Big 12 champion)
  5. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-1) (National independent at-large)
  6. Ohio State Buckeyes (10-2) (Big Ten at-large)
  7. Georgia Bulldogs (10-3) (SEC runner-up)
  8. Penn State Nittany Lions (11-2) (Big Ten runner-up)
  9. Tennessee Volunteers (10-2) (SEC at-large)
  10. Indiana Hoosiers (11-1) (Big Ten at-large)
  11. SMU Mustangs (11-2) (ACC runner-up)
  12. Clemson Tigers (10-3) (ACC champion)

Against all odds, SMU would likely still be in the playoff despite a loss to Clemson. They would be seeded No. 11, maybe even No. 12, depending on if the Selection Committee honors the head-to-head victory the Tigers would have in this situation over the Mustangs. The big key here is Alabama would be getting boxed out. Miami, Ole Miss and South Carolina have virtually no chance of getting in here.

When it comes to the helmet argument, Alabama is the bigger brand. The Crimson Tide may have a better chance of pulling off an upset or two in the 12-team tournament, but they lost three conference games, two of which were to what became 6-6 teams. SMU may not have a quality win, but a pair of quality losses and several dominating wins over bowl-bound teams could do the trick.

This would make a lot of Alabama fans mad, but SMU would still be the far more deserving team here.

Next. Where will Texas be seeded after SECCG, win or loss?. Where will Texas be seeded after SECCG, win or loss?. dark

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