Key Points
Bullet point summary by AI
- Three WNBA teams are emerging as title contenders with rosters hungry for their first championship — the Wings, Dream and Valkyries.
- Each team carries distinct strengths and weaknesses that could define their playoff runs.
- The Dream's manageable roster concerns and established talent give it a slight edge over the others.
This wasn't really supposed to be a wide-open WNBA season. The Las Vegas Aces and New York Liberty were going to dominate and make a run to the WNBA Finals to face each other, right? Well ... not so fast. The Aces are good, but New York is struggling to figure out its roster, and the fit after adding Satou Sabally in free agency feels not only imperfect, but imperfect in a way that might haunt the team all season long.
That's opened the doors for other contenders. Right now, the Atlanta Dream, Dallas Wings and Golden State Valkyries are all playing some very good basketball. All three teams are also searching for their first WNBA championships. (Note: the Dallas franchise technically won three in Detroit, but considering that was multiple relocations ago, let's not count it.) Which is more likely to take home its first title? Let's make the case for all three and then we can decide.
Atlanta Dream
Entering this season, a lot of people — this writer included — viewed the Atlanta Dream as the league's third-best team. It turns out that may have been an underestimate, as the Dream are a league-best 4-1 on the season.
The addition of Angel Reese has paid off, and the major concern about this roster — its complete lack of 3-point shooting — hasn't impacted the wins and losses ... yet.
That remains the big worry, though. Look at Sunday's 82-80 win over Phoenix, in which three of the team's starters failed to make a shot from deep. Players like Isobel Boriase and Te-Hina Paopao provide solid shooting off the bench, though I wonder how this winds up looking once they have to fit Brionna Jones back into the rotation.
Dallas Wings
The Dallas Wings sit at 4-3 on the season right now, but the growing impact of No. 1 overall pick Azzi Fudd suggests that this team won't be stuck in a fight to finish over .500 but will instead be a playoff lock.
Fudd and last year's No. 1 overall pick Paige Bueckers have worked well together and Arike Ogunbowale hasn't been the negative that many thought she'd be in a lineup with those players.
Net Rating | |
|---|---|
Ogunbowale ON | +5.4 |
Ogunbowale OFF | -0.7 |
The biggest concern right now is that center Alanna Smith has struggled. The Wings have been a disaster with her on the floor, with defense notably being an issue, which isn't ideal considering last year's co-DPOY was expected to solve many of the team's defensive woes. Is Smith just not playing at full strength right now and that's the issue? If so, Dallas can have hope in the situation improving. If not, a major hole at the five is something that will be hard to overcome.
Golden State Valkyries
Last season, the Golden State Valkyries had the team's best scoring defense, but offensive struggles doomed the team. This season, the team is scoring 85.8 points per game, up significantly from last season's 77.7 per game, and the defense is still delivering. It's turned the team into a contender.
Golden State's chances at this stage rely on this offensive improvement being real. Is it? Ehh. The six players with the most minutes played per game are all shooting under 40 percent from the floor, which is certainly concerning, and what's more concerning is those numbers are mostly low due to 2-point field goal issues, not 3-point issues.
Luck will probably catch up at some point, right? Then again, the offense doesn't need to be great if the defense is, and we have the entirety of last season as evidence that Golden State's defensive showing is sustainable.
Which team stands the best chance of winning the title?
All three teams have concerns that can prevent them from winning a title, but Atlanta's concerns seem the most manageable.
Atlanta is just 11th in the WNBA in offensive rating, but getting Jones back should help with that, and the defense should continue to play well. You can also argue that the Dream have the talent edge here, as a big three of Reese, Rhyne Howard and Allisha Gray with Jordin Canada at the point is a really, really talented group.
Dallas just feels a bit too young, and the Valkyries' offensive improvement doesn't feel as sustainable as you'd like to see. That's not to say those teams have no shot at winning a title, but the Dream feel a step closer to that tier than the others at the moment.
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