Key Points
Bullet point summary by AI
- With A'ja Wilson and Breanna Stewart dominating the MVP landscape the past few years, several players are poised to challenge their reign this season.
- Key contenders must elevate their performance while overcoming injuries and team dynamics to secure votes.
- The race could hinge on individual statistical leaps and team success, offering a potential shift in the award's historical pattern.
At this point, the WNBA MVP award should be renamed the A'ja Wilson-Breanna Stewart MVP Trophy, because the two seem to have a stranglehold on the award. They've won five of the last seven MVPs, and have combined for 67 percent of all first-place MVP votes over that time.
Stewart seems to have fallen off just a bit lately, but Wilson still stands out as the top MVP candidate, especially considering Napheesa Collier is set to be out to open the season, hurting her case. Aside from Collier, who else might be able to challenge in the MVP race?
Caitlin Clark, Indiana Fever
I mean, I have to lead off with Indiana Fever star Caitlin Clark, right? In her only full WNBA season, Clark finished fourth in MVP voting on a Fever team that went .500 on the year, so if she can bounce back to her 2024 level of play — and cut out some of the turnovers from that season — while leading the Fever to something like a 26-win season, then she should be right there.
Of course, that relies on Clark bouncing back. Her 2024 season was incredible, considering it was her rookie campaign and it was accompanied by huge expectations, but last season, injury limited Clark to 13 games, and her numbers took a big dip in those 13 games.
I wouldn't bet actual money on a Clark MVP award this season, just because there's so much uncertainty about how she'll look when she gets back out there, but she's a good bet to get one in the near future and end the Wilson/Stewart reign, even if 2027 is more likely than 2026.
Alyssa Thomas, Phoenix Mercury
It feels like Alyssa Thomas consistently comes up just short in the MVP voting. The triple-double machine has finished in the top four of the voting in four consecutive seasons, including posting a third-place finish last season.
With Satou Sabally now in New York, Thomas has a simple MVP case in 2026: Phoenix needs to still be as good as it was last season while Thomas averages about the same as she did last year in points, rebounds and assists. Do that without Sabally to siphon off some of the credit, and Thomas might actually walk away with MVP for the first time.
The flipside of this is that Thomas' physical play style can't last forever. Her shoulder issues make it hard for her to hit a jumper, so her game is all about driving inside and forcing the issue. It feels like something that's said each year, but this might be Thomas' last chance at winning the award.
Allisha Gray, Atlanta Dream
I really debated which Atlanta Dream player to put here. See, there's a very good chance that the Dream wind up as the third-best team in the league, and if that's the case then three players should potentially have an MVP case: Angel Reese, Rhyne Howard and Allisha Gray.
So, why pick Gray over the other two? Because if the Dream are as good as they potentially could be, Gray is going to be the most important part of that because of her shooting ability.
Atlanta has major spacing concerns. Like...they might end up starting three non-shooters next to Howard and Gray, and Howard's not a great shooter either, even if she's the second-best in the projected starting five. Gray will need to be efficient on a high volume of looks while also playing great perimeter defense if she wants to be the one who gets credit for Atlanta's success, but I think that since she has to do that for the Dream to win, then she'll be the one getting MVP votes if the team is good.
Kelsey Plum, Los Angeles Sparks
I think the Los Angeles Sparks could be the biggest surprise in the WNBA. After barely missing the postseason a year ago, the team brought back Nneka Ogwumike, a franchise legend who instantly gives them one of the league's most interesting frontcourts.
But it's likely going to be Kelsey Plum who gets the bulk of the MVP attention if the Sparks are good. Last season, she showed she can be an effective lead scorer at this level after years of sharing that role on a crowded Las Vegas Aces team, averaging 19.5 points per game.
If she ups that into the low 20s while improving on last year's 42.2 field goal percentage — her lowest since 2019 — while the Sparks easily make the playoffs, then Plum will be a viable MVP candidate. Her case might be a bit more speculative than the other three players mentioned here, but there's definitely still a case.
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