With all the outside noise surrounding the WNBA this week, some may have forgotten that there is still an entire series left to play. Okay, we didn’t forget, but it’s time to bring the conversation back to the court. The WNBA’s first seven-game series kicks off Friday night between the Phoenix Mercury and Las Vegas Aces.
3 keys to winning Game 1
Shutting down the opponent’s stars: The two stars of this series are undoubtedly A’ja Wilson for the Las Vegas Aces and Alyssa Thomas for the Phoenix Mercury. Each team will try to force the other to succeed without Wilson and Thomas, doing their best to lock them down. Wilson, a huge 30+ point threat and dominant in the post, and Thomas, a triple-double queen who can get it done at every level, will be the most defended players. Each team’s best chance of winning each game will be if these stars struggle to perform. Of course, each team also has other talents that they will turn to, but it will be hard to win without Thomas and Wilson at their best.
Not losing momentum in the second half: These playoffs have seen teams lose substantial leads in the second half and ultimately lose the game. Obviously, exhaustion has been rampant in the postseason after a tough regular season. Part of not losing momentum late in the game will be tapping into the depth of each team. Dana Evans made a huge shot late in Game 5 for the Aces that helped them secure their place in the finals. Getting that kind of production from the bench late in the game can help preserve the starters’ energy and help in close game situations.
Showing up big in big moments: Similarly to Dana Evans, Dewanna Bonner was huge for Phoenix down the stretch in their final game against Minnesota. She made a few clutch 3-point shots, stopping the Lynx’s momentum as they tried to keep even with the Mercury. It’s showing up in those moments that bring the edge in playoff games, that separate the championship caliber players from the rest. This is where experience really comes into play, and there is a lot of playoff experience across these two teams. Of course, the Aces have most of the same core as they did when they went back-to-back in 2022 and 2023. Loyd, one of their newer players, has two championships with the Seattle Storm. Kahleah Copper won Finals MVP when the Chicago Sky won the championship in 2021, and while Thomas doesn’t have a championship yet, she has played deep playoff runs with the Connecticut Sun. Dewanna Bonner also played for Phoenix the last time they won a championship in 2014.
2 dark horses for WNBA Finals MVP
Satou Sabally, Phoenix Mercury: Satou Sabally being the third option on a team means that team must be really good, which has landed the Mercury in the Finals. While most guesses for Finals MVP may be on Alyssa Thomas and Kahleah Copper, Sabally could be a dark horse. “The Unicorn,” as she is called, can take over a game and will be a huge part of slowing down Las Vegas’s talented front court. This is Sabally’s first trip to the WNBA Finals, after she was traded to Phoenix from Dallas. After spending the beginning of her career on a rocky Wings team, Sabally was ready to move on this season, immediately seeing the positives of that move.
Jackie Young, Las Vegas Aces: Maybe not as much of a dark horse, Young has been crucial for the Aces’ postseason. It was Young who made that key play at the end of Game 3 versus Seattle to help Las Vegas Advance to the second round. It was Young who stepped up big in Game 5 versus Indiana to make sure the Aces won their semifinal series. While Wilson is their No. 1 option and the favorite to win MVP if the Aces win this series, Young is also a great option. She has never won Finals MVP, as Chelsea Gray won in 2022 and A’ja Wilson won in 2023.
1 championship prediction
Maybe the toughest series to predict this entire postseason, this year’s Finals are going to be gritty. We are lucky it is a seven-game series, because these two teams may need every second of all seven games (and maybe more) to decide who will win it all.
Both teams have a great case to win — the Aces went on a tear to end the regular season after being at the bottom of the playoff picture. The Mercury were a top team all season, but their confidence has been off the charts in the postseason.
Going out on whim, the prediction here is going to be Phoenix will win the championship in seven games. I still think Alyssa Thomas wins Finals MVP, but every member of this incredible underdog Mercury team will play a factor in winning this series. It’s going to be such great basketball, and continue on the tradition of the WNBA, giving us unforgettable Finals series.