The WNBA playoff picture is coming into focus, but it's not all the way solidified yet. With its current win streak propelling the team back over .500, Las Vegas looks like a virtual lock for the No. 6 seed, joining the Lynx, Liberty, Dream, Mercury and Fever as the for-sure playoff teams.
But the seventh and eighth seeds are still up for grabs, and four teams have a shot at earning one of those: Golden State, Seattle, Los Angeles and Washington.
So, who will it be that gets those final postseason spots? Let's take a look at the case for each team to make the playoffs.
The case for the Golden State Valkyries
Golden State has been playing above its station all season. What's to stop the Valkyries from simply continuing to do that? Everyone thought they'd fall off once Kayla Thornton went down, but the team just keeps chugging along and winning games, going 6-4 over the past 10 games.
The defense has stepped up, holding the team's past two opponents under 60 points, and the 77.1 points per game allowed by Golden State this season ranks second-best in the WNBA. The issue is that the team ranks 11th in scoring offense and is currently in the midst of an eight-game stretch of failing to hit the 80-point mark.
One major concern for Golden State? Strength of schedule. The Valkyries have the hardest remaining schedule in the league, with their final 13 opponents having a 53.3 percent win rate. In a playoff battle this close, the fact that the Valkyries play such a difficult schedule has to be a major roadblock on the path to the postseason, especially if the team is unable to find a way to generate offense.
The case for the Seattle Storm
I don't think anyone would argue against the idea that of the four teams competing for a playoff spot, the Seattle Storm have the most high-end talent. The issue is that high-end talent seems to be wearing down as we get later into the season, largely because the lack of bench depth has prevented the team from being able to give the stars their needed rest.
The Storm have now lost five in a row following Sunday's 94-91 loss to the Los Angeles Sparks, the second loss to the Sparks in that stretch. Losing games to the team that's right behind you in the standings isn't a good recipe for making a playoff run.
But Seattle adding Brittney Sykes at the trade deadline is a potentially huge move. It hasn't quite paid off yet as the team hasn't won with her on the roster, but the offense played well in both of her appearances with Seattle so far. She was the best player moved at the deadline, and while Seattle still has frontcourt depth concerns, the Sykes addition helped shore up one major issue of concern.
The case for the Los Angeles Sparks
No team has been hotter over the past month or so than the Sparks, but does that mean the hot streak will continue?
The Sparks have won nine of their past 11 games, going from a potential threat to land the No. 1 overall pick next year — which they'd just have to turn around and give to the Storm because of the Kia Nurse trade — to a pretty scary team. And they aren't just beating scrubs, as the team has wins over New York, Vegas, Indiana and Seattle over this span.
It also helps that the Sparks have the fifth-easiest remaining schedule. The team gets to face the Dallas Wings three times still over the rest of the season, for example, so its path to making the postseason feels less bumpy than other teams. The Sparks also play the Mystics twice, giving them chances to eliminate Washington from this playoff battle.
The case for the Washington Mystics
The Washington Mystics are still very much alive in the playoff race, but they're still the longest shot to make it of these four teams. But even if Washington misses out on the postseason, the team deserves massive credit for how well it's played this season.
Washington kind of waved the white flag on making a real playoff run at the trade deadline, when the team traded Brittney Sykes away. It was a great move for the future, but losing your best veteran player isn't a recipe for making a playoff run. Rookies Sonia Citron and Kiki Iriafen have played very, very well for Washington, but Citron is going to be forced into even more of an on-ball role over the rest of the season and having to start a backcourt of Jade Melbourne and Sug Sutton isn't really what you want from a potential playoff team.
So, who gets the last two WNBA playoff spots?
Let's go ahead and eliminate Washington. Great job this season by everyone in that Mystics organization, but 2025 isn't their year.
That leaves Golden State, Seattle and Los Angeles. While the Valkyries are first among those teams in the current standings, I just think strength of schedule and the lack of offensive production are going to work against the team too much. Adding Sykes in Seattle is enough to get the Storm back on track. The easy Sparks schedule mixed with just how well they've been playing is enough to get them the No. 8 seed.
I know I've been saying it all year and it hasn't been the case yet, but at some point, this run for Golden State has to come to an end. The team being in the playoff race this late is a win for an expansion team, but this final stretch of the year just feels like it's going to be working against them too hard.