The Mercury have their backs to the wall after A'ja Wilson's epic game-winner put them in a 3-0 hole. We're looking back at their longshot hopes, the best moments of this Aces season, and what to expect from maybe the wildest offseason ever.
3 most impressive parts of the Las Vegas Aces’ 2025 season
Their mid-season turnaround: At the All-Star Break, the Las Vegas Aces were barely in the playoff picture. Between A’ja Wilson missing games in the early season due to a concussion, a lack of defensive energy from the team, and several injuries/absences, the Aces found themselves lingering around the No. 8 spot. Knowing the dominance this team has sustained in the past four seasons, even in the one season they didn’t win the championship, people were already eulogizing the season and this iteration of the Aces. With most of the team’s core set to become free agents in the upcoming offseason, it was assumed the team would just blow it up if the season was not going well and this team could not get it together.
After a particularly embarrassing loss to the Minnesota Lynx, where the Lynx won 111-58, the Aces got their act together. That shook them up, and they did not lose another game the rest of the regular season. They went on to beat the Seattle Storm in three games in the first round, the Indiana Fever in five games in the second round, and now face four potential elimination games against the Phoenix Mercury to win the championship.
A’ja Wilson’s fourth MVP run in five seasons: The Aces' success runs through A’ja Wilson. She is truly the best player on this team, in this league, and possibly in the world. Her dominance and ability to control games, regardless of the point in the season or the pressure, is why she is now a 4-time MVP. She’s the reason for their postseason success as well, as exemplified by her buzzer-beater fadeaway in Game 3to bring the Aces to a two-point victory over the Mercury — avoiding overtime and sealing the fate of the game. This season, Wilson has played a career-high 11 playoff games so far, and is averaging a career-high 26.5 points per game in the postseason, per Her Hoop Stats.
Their ability to finish close games in the playoffs: This postseason has been full of close game situations for the Aces. Their Game 3 against Seattle, their Game 5 against Indiana, and now a pair of close games in the finals. Yet, while some teams may not be able to close again and again in these one-possession game-ending situations, the Aces have. It’s been a mix of going to A’ja Wilson and Jackie Young in big moments. We know Wilson can handle them, but it has been fun to see Jackie Young really step into her light and get some of those big shots for herself.
2 big predictions for the WNBA offseason
A top-10 star moves teams: With over 80 percent of the league heading into free agency this season, there is discourse on social media about whether we should expect a lot of big moves or not. Will people just opt to re-sign with the teams they previously played for, or is this a chance to shake it up and change teams? As has been the pattern over the past few years, the prediction of a top-10 WNBA star moving teams isn’t a huge swing. With two new expansion teams, plus factoring in how well Golden State played in their first season, those three teams are now potential signing locations. Other teams are also stepping it up in terms of player facilities and treatment, and it is no longer secret which teams have an easy time retaining players and which do not. So, it seems like a great time for someone to make a big change if they feel like it.
One of the expansion teams makes a big signing: In the same vein as the previous prediction, one of the three new expansion teams (when you include Golden State here) could make a splash in free agency. As the Valkyries proved in 2025, there is no timeline for success for these new teams. The Valkyries were able to have a winning record, make the playoffs, and almost won a game in the postseason. There is no guarantee these expansion teams all have to be bad. Plus, with new locations unlocking in the WNBA, people may be tempted to move teams based on location — that’s especially prevalent when you think about the potential of Canadians going to sign with the Toronto Tempo.
1 thing to watch in game 4: Can Alyssa Thomas give the Mercury some hope?
The time for the Phoenix Mercury to attempt to even out the series passed when A’ja Wilson sank that buzzer-beating tiebreaker in Game 3. Now, the Mercury are going to be playing from behind for the rest of the series. While comebacks of this nature are extremely rare, it wouldn’t be shocking for the WNBA to give us one of the greatest comebacks in sports history. That comeback would have to come through Alyssa Thomas’s leadership.
Thomas had scored 15+ points in every postseason game leading up to the finals, yet in these three games so far, she has reached that threshold once. While Thomas isn’t as much of a high-volume scorer as Wilson, her impacts come by way of assists and rebounds. In the finals, Thomas hasn’t reached her average in those stats either. She has also been charged with more fouls in the finals than in the other games prior, meaning her physicality isn’t matching up as well with the Aces frontcourt as it did against teams past.
Especially as Satou Sabally’s availability is now in question for the rest of the series after she went down with a rough collision, Thomas is going to need to be at 100 percent if the Mercury wants to extend their series.