Women's college basketball rankings: Projected AP Top 25 after Texas defeats South Carolina

On Sunday, South Carolina lost an SEC game for the first time since 2022, spoiling the team's quest for three consecutive seasons with an undefeated conference record.

But more on that later. First, let's take a stab at predicting what the AP Top 25 is going to look like on Monday. We know that undefeated UCLA will hold the No. 1 spot, but everything beyond that is a bit of a mystery.

How far do the Gamecocks drop? Does Texas jump them? Is Notre Dame the new No. 2?

Below is a projection of what Monday's AP Top 25 poll will look like.

Projected AP Top 25 women's college basketball rankings

1. UCLA
2. Notre Dame
3. South Carolina
4. Texas
5. LSU
6. USC
7. UConn
8. Kentucky
9. TCU
10. NC State
11. North Carolina
12. Ohio State
13. Duke
14. Kansas State
15. Oklahoma
16. Maryland
17. Tennessee
18. Georgia Tech
19. West Virginia
20. Alabama
21. Oklahoma State
22. Michigan State
23. Florida State
24. Creighton
25. Baylor

Texas hands South Carolina a loss...but SC is still ahead in the poll

When Texas and South Carolina met last month in Columbia, the Gamecocks defense completely neutralized Texas, holding star Madison Booker to seven points on 3-for-19 shooting and limiting the Horns to just 50 points.

This time was a different story.

Booker shot just 31.8 percent from the floor, but she made big shots when it mattered, scoring 20 points to lead the Longhorns to a 66-62 win in Austin.

Texas played bully ball all game long, attempting just four 3-pointers and instead focusing on getting to the bucket. The team wasn't afraid of the suffocating Gamecocks defense.

If there was a moment where you could tell Texas was going to hold on for the win, it was after Booker went to the floor while being fouled on an and-1. After initially grimmacing, Booker turned to the camera and confidently flashed a Hook 'Em sign before leaping back to her feet:

But despite the win, I anticipate enough voters keep South Carolina in front of Texas for the Gamecocks to only drop to No. 3 while Texas remains No. 4. Maybe recency bias will win out, but the teams split their two games against each other. South Carolina's only other loss was to the undefeated No. 1 team in the country. Texas's other loss is to the new No. 2 team, Notre Dame.

Honestly, the order the voters put South Carolina and Texas could go the opposite way, but the Gamecocks won't fall farther than No. 4.

LSU moves into the top five

Part of why No. 4 is the floor for South Carolina is that UConn's loss to Tennessee will elevate LSU into the top five. And while the Tigers have one fewer loss than the Gamecocks, the fact that the loss was to the Gamecocks will keep voters from moving LSU up beyond No. 5.

However, don't let that take away from what was a good week for LSU, which defeated Tennessee on Sunday 82-77. The Tigers have now won five in a row since that loss to South Carolina.

The next big test for LSU comes next Sunday when the team goes on the road to face Texas. Will this top five spot be short lived?

Tennessee moves up despite a loss

Despite losing to LSU, Tennessee will move up a few spots because the Vols had one of the week's biggest wins, upsetting UConn 80-76 on Thursday.

The Tennessee defense limited Paige Bueckers and Azzi Fudd, with both shooting under 35 percent from the floor. On Tennessee's side, Zee Spearman had 16 points to lead the team.

This is a tough Tennessee team. Sure, the team has six losses, but four of those are to teams that will be in the top five of this week's poll. The other two are by a combined two points to Oklahoma and Vanderbilt. This is a dangerous team.

Ohio State's rough week

Two ranked teams from last week lost multiple games this week. One of them was Cal, which will drop from the poll after losing to Louisville and Notre Dame.

The other is Ohio State, which falls a few spots but shouldn't drop too far considering the losses were to UCLA and USC.

It's obviously not encouraging that neither loss was close though. The Buckeyes have to bounce back this week against Minnesota and Iowa and show that they just had a couple of really bad matchups this week.

There's clear reason for concern about Ohio State if you look at the team's overall track record this year. Its best win is against Maryland, which happens to be the team's only win over a ranked opponent, barring Michigan surprisingly sneaking back into this week's poll.