The Milwaukee Bucks have spent 90 percent of their season operating in uncertainty. As the weeks drift away before playoff action tips off, the Eastern Conference standings midseason has become the hub of movement. In some respects, it’s the most unstable position to be in.
Milwaukee is neither in contention with the Cleveland Cavaliers or Boston Celtics, nor are they bottoming out. They also aren't ascending like the Detroit Pistons or New York Knicks. While the Cavs and Celtics float above the Eastern Conference jambalaya, Milwaukee is riding the currents toward an approaching waterfall. The pursuit of New York for the three seed has cooled due to Milwaukee’s inability to take advantage of Jalen Brunson’s absence. However, their focus has shifted to regaining the fourth seed and towards their first-round matchup.
Currently, the Bucks own the East’s fifth-best record. It’s a far cry from where they expected to be but a few factors govern their short-term outlook. Foremost among them are the first-round matchup they get stuck in. There are three likely opponents for Milwaukee in the opening round. Here’s how they rank from most formidable opponent to punching bag.
New York Knicks
In two matchups so far this season, the Knicks emerged victorious in both of them. Defensively, the Knicks have had no answers for Karl-Anthony Towns when Brook Lopez or Bobby Portis are on him. Lopez is a gargoyle when Towns sneezes by him when he gets drawn out to the perimeter for contests.
The Bucks are one of the league’s best 3-point shooting teams, while the Knicks' porous perimeter defense has made them susceptible to barrages from opposing teams. Yet, in two head-to-head matchups, the Bucks have made just 17-of-64 triples, a 26 percent rate compounded by their equally poor free throw shooting.
The one caveat is that Milwaukee’s poor shooting against the Knicks this season may even out in a playoff series and that both meetings with New York took place before they traded for Kyle Kuzma. Antetokounmpo has also struggled to get going offensively against the Knicks, and in a seven-game series, Rivers may ask him to expend energy on the defensive end locking down Towns.
Detroit Pistons
Since the calendar flipped to the New Year, the Pistons have wreaked havoc as the No. 2 defense in the entire NBA, allowing 109.7 points per 100 possessions. Their net rating in that period has been fifth in the league, and twice Milwuakee’s. They’re second only to Oklahoma City in defensive rating and Detroit’s stifling paint defense has been the soul of that turnaround. While that physicality has flustered many mortals, Antetokounmpo throws thunderbolts.
Antetokounmpo can take a lick and keep on tickin’, whips out an UNO Reverse card, and ends up doing the physical punishing himself. In two games against the Pistons this season, Antetokounmpo has scored 87 points. The only reason they aren’t the most desired matchup is because Cade Cunningham is solidifying into a sublime offensive engine. However, the supporting cast around him still features too many erratic offensive checkers pieces to consider them a threat yet.
Indiana Pacers
Last year’s first-round matchup against the Indiana Pacers produced deceptive results. The Bucks were steamrolled, but only after losing Antetokounmpo and Lillard before the end of the series. Indiana is incapable of slowing down Antetokounmpo inside. Rick Carlisle has put in the work coaching up a defense that was the league's worst a year ago into a league-average group of defenders, but the Pacers have one glaring flaw in regards to defending the paint. They rank 27th in the entire NBA in opposing points in the paint.
Over the last two seasons, "the Greek Freak" has bludgeoned Indiana’s porous defense. He hasn’t replicated his 64-point career-high against Indiana this season, but he averaged a 30-12-7 in four games against the Pacers. Out of those four head-to-heads, the Bucks have won three of them and would have had a clean sweep if they hadn’t taken their eye off the ball in the final seconds of a March 11 loss against Indiana.