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Prediction Machine predicts the College Football Champion

By Andrew Melnick

Jan 6, 2014; Pasadena, CA, USA; Florida State Seminoles quarterback Jameis Winston (5) holds the Coaches Trophy after defeating the Auburn Tigers 34-31 in the 2014 BCS National Championship game at the Rose Bowl. Mandatory Credit: Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports
Jan 6, 2014; Pasadena, CA, USA; Florida State Seminoles quarterback Jameis Winston (5) holds the Coaches Trophy after defeating the Auburn Tigers 34-31 in the 2014 BCS National Championship game at the Rose Bowl. Mandatory Credit: Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports /
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With college football nearly here (the South Carolina Gamecocks and Texas A&M Aggies will kick-off in two weeks), the predictions are pouring in.

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PredictionMachine.com, a sports simulator recently ran the college football season 50,000 times and were kind of to send over their results.

In the most likely College Football Playoff, ACC and defending National Champion, Florida State, tops Big Ten champion Ohio State, by a score of 39-27 in the Rose Bowl (one of two bowls hosting the College Football Playoff Semifinals). In the Sugar Bowl, Oregon, the second-best team in the country based on the Predictalator’s analysis, wins a shootout over Alabama, the most likely SEC champion, by an average score of 38-34. Meeting for the first ever College Football Playoff Championship in Arlington, Texas, Florida State wins its second-straight title, this time over Oregon and by a score of 41-34.

There is some subjectivity to this analysis (as there tends to be in any college football conversation). Interestingly, Wisconsin wins the second most regular games among FBS teams (after Florida State), yet loses the most likely Big Ten Championship game and ranks just eighth in our initial Power Rankings. Baylor, the most likely Big 12 winner in this analysis, could be on the outside of the playoff looking in as the only “Big 5” title winner not in the four-team playoff. Not only do we expect a down year for the Big 12 (relative to where it was throughout the last decade), the lack of conference title game could be a problem. A one-loss Big 12 champion will have a tough time getting into the playoff over a one-loss Big Ten champion that also wins its conference championship. This is all theory, though, and not quite as easy to project as the win, losses and conference title game results.

In conference championship games, Florida State dominates UNC, 42-17 to cruise to another ACC victory. Alabama wins a close game over South Carolina to claim the SEC crown. Oregon topsUCLA, 45-33 for the Pac-12 title. Ohio State gets by Wisconsin 33-30 in the Big Ten finale. And in non-“Big 5” conference championships, Marshall edges UTSA, 28-24, for the C-USA championship,Toledo bests Bowling Green, 27-24, to take the MAC and Utah State gets by San Diego State, 29-23 to win the Mountain West.

You can read more about Prediction Machine here.

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