Buffalo Bills (+3) over Indianapolis Colts
Andrew Luck is the trendy preseason pick for NFL MVP and the Colts are an obvious choice to emerge as the best team in the AFC this season.
Fade them.
That isn’t to say that I’m a detractor from Luck and the Colts, and I actually believe that Indy has all the makings. However, going to Buffalo is never a pleasurable task for the opposition, and even without Marcell Dareus, the Bills have a stout defense. Rex Ryan had the entire offseason to prepare for Luck and this offense, and regardless of what you think about Ryan as a personality, he is one of the better defensive minds in the NFL.
More than anything, though, this is a “fade the public” selection. 77% of the action (according to Vegas Insider) is on the Colts at this point, but the line is already threatening to drop, and that is a sharp indicator of smart money on Buffalo. Home underdogs are generally a sharp side, and even if it may seem tough to ride with Tyrod Taylor against Andrew Luck, it’s the play.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5) over Carolina Panthers
We’re going to be on the Jaguars a lot this season. Prepare for that.
Jacksonville, along with Oakland, continually occupies the basement of the league in terms of interest level, and that often pushes the Jaguars into favorable situations with regard to handicapping. That isn’t to say that the Jags will be good this season (they probably won’t be), but value will be there based on the fact that the public is terrified to back Jacksonville, and we’ll take advantage.
The first instance of that comes in Week 1, as the banged-up Carolina Panthers are laying more than a field goal on the road. Even if Cam Newton’s offense was completely healthy, this line is too high, and when you factor in that the Panthers will go to battle with Philly Brown and Ted Ginn as starting wide receivers, things come into focus.
The jury is firmly out on Blake Bortles at this point, but if you’re going to give me more than a field goal at home against a potentially mediocre opponent, I’ll claim that line and run.
Next: Rams over Seahawks