NFL eliminates ‘probable’ designation on injury reports

NFL injury reports are fairly easy to understand, but the league has made it more challenging by eliminating an official designation.

NFL teams often guard injuries like a state secret, in order to keep opponents in the dark as long as possible. But the league has made sure injury reports are easy to understand, so the thirst for information from fans, fantasy football owners and gamblers can be quenched.

With the start of the 2016 regular season fast approaching, the NFL has now made a rule change that will affect injury report listings. Armando Salguero of the Miami Herald has passed along the details.

Fantasy football owners stand to be particularly challenged by the elimination of the “probable” injury designation. Instant access via multiple devices makes last-minute lineup changes easier to do, but there may be far more tough decisions to make based purely on when a game kicks off.

Pro Football Talk has passed along an anecdote from the NFL, declaring that approximately 95 percent of players listed as probable in prior years played in the game. While that stat conveniently fits the league’s narrative, it does convey a common sense reason for eliminating the probable designation.

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Changes to the definition of “questionable” and “doubtful” have also come. Questionable once reflected a 50-50 chance a player would play, and now it simply means “it is uncertain as to whether the player will play in the game.” Doubtful used to convey a 75 percent chance a player would not play, and now that will be defined as “it is unlikely the player will participate.”

Listing someone as probable has often meant nothing. The best evidence comes when the New England Patriots, who listed Tom Brady probable with a right shoulder injury for essentially three full seasons from 2005-2007 while he never missed a game. Of course karma came back to get them, when Brady was not on the injury report for Week 1 of 2008 and he then suffered a torn left ACL in the game.

For those that monitor injury reports with a vested interest, practice reports from during the week will now have greater importance. Until official inactives are declared for a game, a player’s activity level in practice will help tip the scales one way or another on a questionable tag. Injuries are typically a guessing game in the NFL, and the league just made it a little harder to play.