Nylon Calculus: The Cavaliers did flip the switch in the playoffs

The season may not have ended the way they hoped, but the Cleveland Cavaliers still put together an incredibly strong playoff run. They dropped just one game through the first three rounds of the playoffs and, although they couldn’t keep up with the Warriors, their offense was absolutely incredible. They finished the postseason having scored 118.1 points per 100 possessions, the best mark for any team in the playoffs over the past 15 years.

Going into the playoffs, the question was whether the Cavs could shore up their abysmal regular season defense. The Cavs seemed confident and most of the playoff preview conversation was about whether Cleveland could “flip the switch.”

Cleveland’s defense ranked 22nd in the league during the regular season, one of the reasons they had just the eighth-best net rating and statistical projections systems like the one at 538 saw them as underdogs, contrary to the conventional wisdom. The Cavs’ Finals has overshadowed this to some degree, but Cleveland did flip the switch.

Or, at least one of the switches.

Cleveland’s defensive efficiency was actually slightly worse in the playoffs, although the degree to which that was true is something of an accomplishment considering they played the 15th-best, sixth-best, eighth-best, and then the best regular season offense in succession. However, their offensive efficiency surged leading to a jump of 6.9 points per 100 possessions in their point differential in the playoffs.

Since the playoffs went to four seven-game series for the 2002-2003 season, just 23 of 240 teams have been able to improve their point differential in the playoffs. Despite a pair of blowout losses to begin the Finals, no team in that time span increased their playoff point differential it by as much as the Cavaliers did this season.

As I mentioned, it’s extremely rare for a team to improve their point differential in the playoffs. They’re playing a multi-game series against an opponent who has rest between games and the time to scout and exploit weaknesses. But, mostly, we’re removing the 14 worst teams in the league, so there are no cupcakes to fatten your stats with.

You know, that last graph showing the top ten but doesn’t really do justice to the way the Cleveland’s improvement this postseason towers over the rest of the field. Why don’t we zoom out a little and include all 240 playoff teams going back to 2002-03.

I will admit to being skeptical about Cleveland’s ability to hit another gear in the playoffs, but they absolutely did. Unfortunately, Golden State did as well.