1 reason why every NFL playoff contender can win it all

Few teams are still considered Super Bowl contenders. Here's how each one can lift the Lombardi Trophy in February.
Super Bowl LVIII - San Francisco 49ers v Kansas City Chiefs
Super Bowl LVIII - San Francisco 49ers v Kansas City Chiefs / Michael Owens/GettyImages
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The NFL regular season is winding down, meaning we're close to seeing who the true contenders are and who will be left out of the big dance. Some teams that came into the season as contenders, like the Dallas Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers, now face the fact that the season didn't go as planned. Other teams, like the Washington Commanders and Minnesota Vikings, understand that their goals have grown since Week 1.

With all of this set in stone, there are probably six true contenders in the NFL. Some of these teams remain long shots, but there's always room for a surprise. Here's why every team still alive in the playoffs can win it all, along with a power ranking of the contenders — from least likely to win it all to most.

14. Cincinnati Bengals - Winning via shooutout every week

The Cincinnati Bengals are one of the biggest disappointments in the league, but a wild series of events have them still in the postseason race. The biggest longshot, but a playoff berth is not impossible. They need the Denver Broncos to lose against the Kansas City backups, and they need the Miami Dolphins to lose to the lowly (but talented) New York Jets. If they win their game and both Denver and Miami lose, the Bengals are in.

Nobody in the league wants Cincinnati to get in. The Dolphins or Broncos are likely to be one-and-done “contenders” in the postseason — they just aren’t good enough today to make a run. The Broncos are on the cusp of being really good, but aren’t there yet. However, the Bengals — with Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Chase Brown pushing the offense to new heights — are the scariest team of those outside contenders.

If the Bengals get into the playoffs, would anyone be that surprised if they took out one of the top dogs in the conference? They hung 34 and 38 points on the Ravens, 38 on the Steelers, 27 on the Chargers, 33 on the Commanders and 25 on the Chiefs. This team can score on the best defenses in the league. 

The Bengals are at the bottom because they’ve lost most of those games. Their defense continues to fail them time and time again. So, the real way they can make a run is to ride the momentum that comes from a good old-fashioned shootout. They might need to score 50 points a game to win in the playoffs, but this team could do it.

13. Houston Texans - Joe Mixon

This has quietly been a rough season for the Houston Texans. Yes, they are a playoff team, but it feels like barely. Maybe this is recency bias, but how can one even call them a true “contender” after the 31-2 drubbing they suffered at the hands of the Ravens on Christmas Day? We suppose you can call it a scheduled loss (they had to play Wednesday after playing Saturday),\ but it’s still hard to make this argument. 

The one X-factor the Texans have is Joe Mixon. He’s been incredible this season in his first year in Houston. Much of the offensive firepower, like Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs) will miss the playoffs with injuries. CJ Stroud is steeped in a sophomore slump. But Mixon is still clicking. 

The issue is teams know how important Mixon is to this offense. Teams are stacking the box to take Mixon out of the situation. That's where head coach DeMeco Ryans and offensive coordinator Bobby Slowick have to get creative with how they use Mixon. Put him on the outside with another running back in the game. Let him line up in the slot. Put two running backs in the backfield. 

The Texans are currently in line to play the Pittsburgh Steelers in the first round. Mixon knows what it takes to beat a Mike Tomlin defense. If the Texans gain some momentum with a playoff win, who knows what could happen next. It all starts with Mixon.

12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Injured players returning to health

Technically, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are not "in" yet. They need to beat the New Orleans Saints this weekend to get in. The Atlanta Falcons losing to the Commanders has them on the brink, so we’ll discuss the Bucs here. 

Tampa Bay has been the Little Engine That Could the last few years. Lose Tom Brady after he finally retires? No worries, they still make the playoffs. See Baker Mayfield come back to Earth for much of the season after giving him a huge contract? No worries, he’ll become a superstar by season’s end and they will still make the playoffs. Lose so many players to injury, including Mike Evans, Sterling Shepard, and Chris Godwin? No worries, they are still about to make the playoffs.

And now, players are getting healthy at the right time. Evans returned to the top of his game, and he’s looking to get 85 yards in Week 18 to break 1,000 yards for the 11th-straight season. Godwin won’t come back, but other important pieces like safety Antoine Winfield Jr, tight end Cade Otton and possibly Jamel Dean back before the playoffs begin.

The Bucs also added an unexpected star in Shaq Barrett. He might not be what he was at his peak, but he’s an interesting addition to this defense after his release in Miami.

11. Washington Commanders - Heroics from Jayden Daniels

We’ve seen it all season. The Washington Commanders are living and dying by what Jayden Daniels can provide. The frontrunner for Rookie of the Year has the Commanders in the playoffs for the first time since the COVID season in 2020. The Commanders haven’t won a playoff game since Joe Gibbs was head coach. We’re not kidding. Next year would be 20 years since the Commanders won a playoff game.

This team needs a hero, and last season's Heisman Trophy winner can be that hero. He’s done it multiple times this season. Daniels, of course, had the Hail Mary to beat Caleb Williams and the Chicago Bears as time expired. In just his second game, he had a two-minute drive to win the game as time expired against the Giants. He threw a touchdown to Jamison Crowder with six seconds left to beat Philadelphia a few weeks ago. Last Sunday, Daniels drove the Commanders down the field and hit Zach Ertz for a touchdown in overtime to keep the ball away from Michael Penix and send the Commanders to the playoffs. 

Daniels has been doing this all season. When the game is on the line, Daniels is the man for the job. He’s as clutch as any quarterback in the league, and he’s a rookie. This is huge for the Washington market, a market that has been starved for good football for a long time. Can they finally get the playoff win they’ve so desperately needed? If they do, Daniels will be front and center as the reason why.

10. Los Angeles Chargers - Defense returns to early-season dominance

We’re going to say the quiet part out loud; the Los Angeles Chargers defense hasn’t been good in a while. It hasn’t been a storyline around the league for whatever reason. Maybe it’s because the Chargers didn’t have huge expectations, or maybe it’s because Justin Herbert has been really good lately. However, Herbert won’t have a chance to beat the likes of Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson and maybe Joe Burrow without a great defense. 

Ignoring that dreadful New England Patriots team, the Broncos scored 27 on them, the Bucs scored 40, the Ravens put up 30, and the Bengals scored 27. This has all been since November 17th. Prior to that, no team had scored more than 20 points against them. If this team could figure out its offense under Jim Harbaugh, they could be a sneaky contender.

Can the defense lock in and find the dominant ways it had earlier in the season? That’s how this team wins. It’s Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack causing chaos on the lines. It’s Derwin James making plays in the secondary. We’re looking for fantastic play-calling that drives opposing offenses insane.

The Chargers will call this season a win just by making the playoffs after the disastrous Brandon Staley tenure. If they want to make it further, they need to regain that early-season defense.

9. Los Angeles Rams - Puka Nacua

It’s not often that a wide receiver has as much impact to a team as Puka Nacua has on the Los Angeles Rams. He might be single-handedly keeping this team from a true rebuild, and he might be the reason Sean McVay is no longer trying to find his way to a broadcast booth. His arrival to the Rams has been a breath of fresh air for a team that seemed like they went all in to get their 2022 championship.

He got hurt in the first game of the season and missed a month and a half, but he’s still on the cusp of 1,000 yards. He hasn’t scored as much as last season, but he’s been a fantastic volume receiver. He’s going to break 80 receptions despite the missed time.

In the playoffs, Nacua can thrive. Last season, he had nine receptions for 181 yards and a touchdown against the Detroit Lions. He was the reason the Rams were going toe-to-toe with one of the best teams in the league. This season, that first game won’t be nearly as hard. Right now, they would face the Commanders in the first round. 

Nacua should be getting more hype as one of the best receivers in the league. He should be squarely in the conversation with Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson. He’s at least in the top five of receivers when he’s on the field and he will be there for Matthew Stafford this postseason, maybe helping LA go on a run.

8. Pittsburgh Steelers - Defense wins championships

This mantra is as old as football as a sport. Defense wins championships. It might be hard to believe in the year 2024 (soon to be 2025), but this idea remains true. Look at the Kansas City Chiefs last season. Stopping the San Francisco 49ers in overtime from scoring a touchdown is the reason they lifted the Lombardi Trophy. Can the Pittsburgh Steelers find something that shows they can play a similar style and win it all?

It’s been a rough stretch for those who think the Steelers have a shot. Losing by double digits to the Philadelphia Eagles, Baltimore Ravens, and Kansas City Chiefs in succession made most analysts write off the Steelers completely. That’s fine. While the results are not what the Steelers want, the consequence is. Pittsburgh doesn’t want to be on the radar. They like staying under the radar. 

Of course, the defense has to play better, but they do have some reinforcements returning. T.J. Watt looks to be completely healed from his early-season injuries. Joey Porter Jr. has been out but should be returning soon. That will really change how this secondary plays, and he might singularly change how teams approach them with their passing offense. 

We are seeing the Steelers' defense dominate in spurts, but the inconsistency has been taken advantage of by their opponents. If they can come together, this is a scary team to face. Even with Russell Wilson at QB, the defense will win or lose games in the playoffs.

7. Green Bay Packers - Jordan Love takes the next step

The Green Bay Packers were seen as sneaky contenders up until this past week. Now, people are focusing more on the big deficit the Packers faced against the Vikings instead of their furious comeback. The game ended 27-25. That was basically a game of inches and was competitive until the end.

The issue here is Jordan Love didn’t look great. He finished the game with 185 yards and one touchdown while Darnold had 377 yards and three touchdowns on the other side. If the Packers got the Love they thought they were getting this season, they win this game. Honestly, the Packers probably win their last Lions game (207 yards, 1 TD), the Eagles game (260 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INTs), and the previous Vikings game (389 yards but 3 INTs). 

Every single loss can be attributed to Jordan Love being not quite good enough. He’s close, but no cigar this season. Think about the team they have around Love. Josh Jacobs has been one of the best running backs in the league, possibly just a tier below Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley. Jordan Reed has stepped up as the star wideout Love needs. The Packers defense has been fantastic too, ranking third in the league with 16 interceptions.

So, if the Packers are going to be contenders in the playoffs, Jordan Love has to be the guy we saw last season in the playoffs. If he can repeat that performance, a performance that convinced the Packers to give him a $220 million extension, they can legitimately win it all. We just haven’t seen that guy this season.

6. Minnesota Vikings - Turnovers

The Minnesota Vikings just keep winning. Most thought they would have fallen off by now, but it’s just not happening. They just beat the bricks off the Green Bay Packers on Sunday before a 15-point blitz at the end almost got the Packers back in the game. However, the game lived and died off two plays, and they were turnovers. The Packers were driving to start the game, but Josh Jacobs fumbled the ball to leave them without points. The Vikings would build a 20-3 lead before Sam Darnold threw an interception, which led to the Packers' first touchdown of the game. 

The Vikings are sixth in turnover margin this season. This comes after they were the second-worst team in turnover margin last season. Brian Flores’ defense has been going hard after the ball on every play. They lead the league in interceptions with 22. Byron Murphy Jr. has six interceptions to lead the team, but 10 different players have at least one pick on their stat sheet. They’ve also recovered nine fumbles, which puts them right in the middle of the league.

Minnesota has been careful with the ball. Darnold has 12 interceptions, which is not terrible contrast with his 35 touchdowns. What’s really impressive is their fumble numbers. Darnold has only lost a fumble twice, and Aaron Jones lost three. C.J. Ham is the only other person on the Vikings to lose a fumble. 

This team is dominating on possession, and it’s because of the turnover margin. They should keep this up in the playoffs, and it makes them hard to beat. 

5. Baltimore Ravens - Control the clock, control the game

The Baltimore Ravens’ offense is as good as we’ve ever seen. Lamar Jackson is a legitimate MVP candidate, which is insane when we think of the season Josh Allen put together. One could even argue that Derrick Henry also deserves consideration for Offensive Player of the Year. These two have given the Ravens as good a rushing offense as any. Saquon Barkley might break Eric Dickerson’s rushing record, and the Ravens are basically in lockstep for rushing stats. 

And that’s how the Ravens can win the Super Bowl. This stupendous rushing attack will help the Ravens control the game if used correctly. If they receive a kickoff, they could go for a 10-minute drive if they wanted to. They’d just have to tell Henry to not go for a huge run. Teams haven’t been able to stop Henry, who is averaging 5.8 yards per carry, has 16 plays of 20 or more yards this season. On top of that, he’s hit paydirt 14 times.

Lamar Jackson is averaging 6.6 yards per rush. He himself has eight rushes of more than 20 yards. He’s not just doing this to get to the first-down marker and get out of bounds. Jackson is weaving in and out of traffic to get extra yards, and he’s finding openings in opposing defenses. 

The Ravens also have big-play makers on the outside, led by Zay Flowers and his first 1,000-yard season. Mark Andrews had a great second half of the season. The Ravens have too many weapons and opposing teams can’t stop them on third down. Baltimore is converting on 48% of its third downs. This is how they win. Control the clock, and you’ll control the Lombardi Trophy.

4. Philadelphia Eagles - Saquon Barkley

We just mentioned Saquon Barkley in the Ravens piece because of how dominant Barkley and Henry have been with their new teams, but there’s a difference here. Henry is dominant on a team full of stars. Barkley is dominant on an offense in turmoil. We’ve heard about angry wide receivers who are upset with the passing offense, coaches who are overwhelmed, quarterbacks who are injured and sometimes ineffective, a tush push that stopped working, and enough controversy to fill a season of The Kardashians, but the Eagles just keep winning. And that’s almost strictly because of Barkley.

Here’s the issue with that: does Barkley have enough juice to do it in the playoffs? He’s touched the ball 378 times this season. His 345 carries is 50 more than he’s ever had in his NFL career. Is there a world where Barkley loses steam in the postseason?

To be fair, we haven’t seen any evidence of that. Barkley had one “weak” game in the second half of the season, and it was a blowout win against the Steelers. Outside of that, he’s had at least 100 yards in every game since November 10th. He’s averaged at least 4.7 yards per carry in all but four games, and two of them were Weeks 1 and 2.

The Eagles opponent in the playoffs will have one gameplan: stop Saquon Barkley. If A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith beat them, so be it, but they have to take out the obvious. If Barkley can still produce, the Eagles will win. It’s that simple.

3. Buffalo Bills - Josh Allen Beast Mode

Many thought that the Buffalo Bills step back. Coming into the season, it was a narrative that made sense. The Bills front office was forced to gut much of the roster due to salary cap issues. They had to take their lumps this season so they could have cleaner cap sheets down the line. It was just one season, and Josh Allen has a long career ahead of him.

Fortunately for Bills fans, that didn’t work for the Allen. He has been great this season, and he’s the odds-on favorite to win MVP. He has 28 touchdowns and six interceptions this season. He’s won 13 games and easily got the Bills to the top of the AFC East. He also rushed for 531 yards and 12 touchdowns. What more could the Bills ask for?

The Bills did not get the number-one seed, as the Chiefs just couldn’t lose, so they do have to play in Week 1 of the postseason. They will either have an easy matchup (Broncos, Dolphins) or a scary matchup (Bengals) in the first week. Either way, they need the very best of Allen if they are going to go far.

Think about the AFC this season. It’s a gauntlet. These are great teams. The Ravens are stacked, the Chargers have stars at positions across the roster, the Steelers could surprise, and the Chiefs can’t lose. If Allen is even going to make his first Super Bowl, he has to play the best football of his entire career.

2. Detroit Lions - Defense does just enough

The Detroit Lions game against the San Francisco 49ers on Monday night might have been “meaningless” in terms of the standings, but we learned a lot about what could make life hard for this team in the playoffs. The Lions defense did not step up to the plate against an insanely flawed 49ers offense. Brock Purdy looked like a god in the first half, and he was flipping fantasy championships. A few awful throws led to easy interceptions for the Lions, but the issues with the Lions’ defense were hard to ignore.

This defense couldn’t stop the stars this season. That’s what we saw on Monday night when George Kittle looked like the best player in football. This defense has always been a little spotty, but its been holding it together since Aidan Hutchinson got injured. The Lions also have multiple injuries to the linebacker group but have opened up the middle of the field to opposing teams. These underneath passes have killed them.

The Lions offense might be the best in the league, but they are in shootouts every game because of their weak defense. Hopefully, some of these players can return, but they might have to do it with their current depth chart. A bye week would really help this team try to get healthier than they are now, but if they are going to be a true contender, the defense has to do enough to win, just like it did Monday night.

The Lions won’t know what seed they get until they play the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday Night Football, the last game of the regular season. The winner of that game not only wins the NFC North, but they also get the only bye in the NFL Playoffs. 

1. Kansas City Chiefs - Chiefs find a way

What else can we say about the Kansas City Chiefs this season? Has this been the most impressive coaching job of Andy Reid’s regular season career? The Chiefs theoretically lost a lot this offseason, losing L’Jarius Sneed, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Willie Gay Jr. and others. On top of that, they faced serious injuries to Rashee Rice (who had himself an offseason as well), Isaiah Pacheco and Hollywood Brown. Despite this, the Chiefs have lost just one game this year. 

Patrick Mahomes has been just good enough. The defense has shut down opponents. Reid’s coaching has been interesting at times, but it always seems to work. There’s nothing else to be said about the Chiefs.

Why can the Chiefs win the Super Bowl? Because that's just what they do. They are back-to-back Super Bowl champs based on situational dominance. When the team absolutely needs a touchdown, they score a touchdown. When they need a defensive stop, they get a defensive stop. It’s almost like they are saving their best football in clutch moments.

Mahomes has produced a weird season. His team has one loss, and he’s still considered the best quarterback in the league by many, but he won’t get even one MVP vote. That’s because his stats are mediocre, and he’s looked bad at times. And he's still only lost once. Now, he looks like he’s revving up again. Everyone should be scared of this team, and the Chiefs should be the favorites to win it all because there’s no reason not to have them there.

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