The NBA Finals begin Thursday, and many casual fans will actually be learning about these players for the first time.
But while the league hopes to make new superstars from Tyrese Haliburton — and what does a guy have to do at this point — and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander — already MVP and on his way — the matchup might be decided most by some of the role players on both teams.
To get a sense of that, here’s a look at the 10 most important players in Pacers-Thunder based on the matchup of who will decide the NBA Champion.
Tyrese Haliburton, Indiana Pacers, Guard
OK, so we’re not starting with a role player, but that’s because Haliburton is the tide that lifts all boats, and the Thunder are a retention wall that the tide laps harmlessly against. OKC will do a ton to take Haliburton away.
Pre-switches with Jaylen Williams on Myles Turner, ball hawk defense by Alex Caruso, and Lu Dort, weakside doubles just as he turns on screen reversals. With Dort defending Haliburton in the regular season, across 50 possessions, Haliburton had just two shot attempts. He also had just two assists and averaged just 5.5 assists per game vs. the Thunder.
Haliburton is the kind of player who doesn’t want to dominate the ball and rarely just takes over a game outside of the last five minutes. He may have to in this series. Usually, he’ll benefit his teammates by drawing attention and then enabling them to attack the weak side. If he does that here, it is not an optimal outcome because the odds of the Thunder turning Andrew Nembhard, TJ McConnell, or Pascal Siakam are much higher, and that’s doom.
If Haliburton can beat the ball pressure, get downhill without turning it over, and consistently hurt the Thunder with floaters, that will dare the Thunder to bring more help, and that gets them out of rotation.
Haliburton has to be great, and largely mistake-free, against the best defense in 20 years. No pressure.
Jalen Williams, Oklahoma City Thunder, Forward
That’s right, it’s not Shai. We’ll get to him, but long story short: Shai’s going to have a good series, but doesn’t have to. However, Jalen faces coin flip situations all over.
In his natural matchup vs. Pascal Siakam, it’s a pretty even matchup going in. Siakam is a smart, athletic, and versatile player. He’s the type of forward mold as Aaron Gordon, who gave Williams a lot of trouble in the second round. On the other end, he’ll have to guard Siakam in base matchups. If he guards Myles Turner, he has to manage slips for pick and pops or switching onto Haliburton to contain one of the best point guards in the league.
Williams will have 3-point opportunities as the Pacers sink to control the paint and the glass. He’ll have drive and kick opportunities against tough closeouts. You can live with Shai scoring if he’s not generating assists. (Again, we’ll get to that.) You can’t survive if Shai is scoring and JDub is filling all the gaps.
Pascal Siakam, Indiana Pacers, Forward
The Pacers are heavily outmatched here, so their players will be higher on the important list because several Thunder players can have bad series, and they can still win.
Siakam had one of the lowest turnover rates in isolation plays this season in the league, and that’s carried over to the postseason with a 2.9 percent turnover rate. Now that’s vs. human defenses and not OKC’s. But if the Thunder tries to pre-switch with a smaller defender on him, and he can just avoid turning the ball over against the best turnover defense maybe ever, then you can at least pressure the OKC defense to get them out of their comfort zone.
Siakam will have to be a disruptive help defender and play small ball a lot.
If Siakam has an incredible Finals, that goes a long way toward shortening the gap between Indiana and OKC.
Lu Dort, Oklahoma City Thunder, Guard
Primary defender on Haliburton. Open shooter when the Pacers collapse. Pre-switches onto Siakam and Myles Turner, much bigger guys.
The Pacers’ model for winning is to limit turnovers and make this a shot variance game. Dort has been terrific at home, knocking down open 3s and rough on the road. If he has a good shooting series, it’s curtains for the Pacers.
As I mentioned above, he largely neutralized Haliburton. That was before Haliburton got healthier and better. Still, it’s not just about defending him on-ball, it’s about denying Haliburton the ball back when he gives it up by chasing both over and under on dribble hand-offs and off-screen actions.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder, Guard
Yes, Shai is the MVP, and yes, Shai is great. This ranking is not about how good Shai is; he’s the best player in the series when factoring defense.
But Shai can score 35, and you can beat OKC. You are not going to shut him down because that requires a level of physicality that will generate free throws. The Pacers are likely to take concepts from Minnesota’s Game 4 win by corralling SGA into a tight pen in high drop coverage.
Minnesota’s problem is (they turned the ball over and) they allowed SGA to set up teammates and score. If the Pacers can be disciplined in their weakside coverage, and SGA is scoring 35 per game but less than seven assists, they have an opportunity to outscore the Thunder.
SGA will also take time guarding Andrew Nembhard. SGA is a good defender, a plus defender, and excellent at steals. If he can handle the Nembhard assignment, that takes away the Pacers’ second backcourt shot creator, and that will strangle the Pacers’ offense.
Chet Holmgren, Oklahoma City Thunder, Big
Holmgren has been quietly really effective driving against centers and getting dunks. If he attacks Myles Turner this way and either draws fouls or forces Turner out, that makes the Thunder’s two-big lineup more viable.
His rim protection is less important here because the Pacers don’t force the issue at the rim and are comfortable on floaters and pull-ups (which he can still block). But his rebounding is also hugely valuable.
If he has a great series on his perimeter shots, he’s going to at least be in the Finals MVP discussion.
Aaron Nesmith, Indiana Pacers, Wing
Nesmith has been terrific in the playoffs. He only guarded Shai for six possessions in one game in the regular season, and his success against him across seasons has been solid. If he can just deny the easy stuff from Shai without fouling, that takes a lot of stress off the Pacers in dealing with the first and biggest problem.
His 3-point attempts will be massive because as I’ve mentioned, the Pacers need this to be a shot variance series and Nesmith is a crack shooter.
Alex Caruso, Oklahoma City Thunder, Guard
An absolute demon. He’ll shut down Myles Turner on switches to take away easy inside scoring. He’ll disrupt and bother Haliburton especially by getting in front of screens and denying switches which takes time off the clock and works against the Pacers’ game script.
His offense is almost entirely just a nice bonus, but if the Pacers reach a point where they can’t deal with SGA on-ball and try blitzing him, the Thunder will screen with Caruso rolling to the middle and hitting floaters.
Andrew Nemhard, Indiana Pacers, Guard
If Nembhard has a great series, if we look back and go “he was the second most important player” then things have gone right. Nembhard was terrific in last year’s playoff run and has had huge moments in this postseason.
This is a nightmare matchup. The Thunder will pressure him and take the ball away. He’s small compared to their wings. They contest pull-up jumpers better than anyone. I don’t know how Nembhard can be helpful here.
Even defensively, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander tore him to pieces in the regular season matchup, and he’s more foul-prone. This is not a Nembhard series.
Myles Turner, Indiana Pacers, Big
Same with Nembhard, if Turner beats the fronting defense on switches, adds second-chance points on putbacks, hits open 3s in the corner when the bigs help, and provides good drop coverage without fouling, then that’s a huge swing in Indiana’s favor.
But the likelihood is that he has a frustrated, foul-laden, low-efficiency series that might see him being played off the floor.