There is only so much money to go around. Although the NFL does a great job of growing the so-called financial pie every season, it's not growing at a rate fast enough to keep all of its best players under contract with their current teams for the foreseeable future. It's why NFL free agency has become such a big deal over the past 30 years. Great players will occasionally get to market.
In most instances, the most business-savvy teams will find ways to get their best players extended well ahead of time. This usually applies to a team's franchise quarterback — smart front offices don't let anyone of note at that position go to market before their prime ends. As for other position groups, that is not always the case. This is the direct result of a league largely dictated by a hard salary cap.
Today, I'll look at 11 star performers who are currently slated to hit free agency next spring. Some will get extended before the season starts, while others will have to play out the final year of their contracts. We have not reached the nasty stage of negotiations for most of these players, but expect a few to be coming.
Tight ends on the bubble: Pitts, Andrews
Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons tight end
From a talent perspective, Kyle Pitts certainly belongs on this list. From a production standpoint, Pitts has been coming up short for years now as a No. 4 overall pick by the Atlanta Falcons. Pitts enters the 2025 NFL season on his fifth-year option. When he has a star quarterback throwing him the ball, he tends to thrive. When he does not, he disappears and ruins fantasy football players' lives.
To me, this comes down to one thing and one thing only. Will Pitts develop the necessary rapport he needs with starting quarterback Michael Penix Jr. by the end of the season to merit a new contract with Atlanta? If Pitts plays out of his mind, he may price his way out of Atlanta. If he has another down year, Atlanta will let him walk anyway. Should Pitts be better than average, he has a chance at staying. Because he is such a boom-or-bust player, I expect Atlanta will be comfortable letting him walk.
Verdict: Walk
Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens tight end
This is a bit more challenging. Mark Andrews was also a star tight end in college, but he has been a far more productive player in the NFL than Pitts. Andrews quickly developed a rapport with perennial NFL MVP candidate Lamar Jackson in the Baltimore Ravens offense. However, he will be looking for a third contract in the league, and does not have age on his side. I feel the Ravens could go either way here.
If it were up to Jackson, Andrews would definitely stay. That being said, Baltimore also has to find a way to pay its stars soon (Jackson, linebacker Roquan Smith, safety Kyle Hamilton and center Tyler Linderbaum). Since Baltimore is a well-run organization that regularly hits on its draft picks, I would not be surprised if they targeted Andrews' immediate successor next spring. He was a third-rounder, too. Baltimore probably wants to keep Andrews, but I have a feeling he is the last star to get paid there.
Verdict: Walk
Edge rushers and their futures: Hendrickson, Parsons, Watt
Trey Hendrickson, Cincinnati Bengals edge rusher
When I mentioned previously that some negotiating processes have started to get nasty, this was the one I was talking about. The Cincinnati Bengals always do things differently in their small market, mom-and-pop nature. It nearly cost them Tee Higgins before he and Ja'Marr Chase got extended on the same day. I'm afraid that this financial monkey business is going to cost them Trey Hendrickson.
So far this offseason, we have seen a pair of high-end pass-rushers get the extensions they deserve. It was getting tumultuous between Myles Garrett and the Cleveland Browns before he got extended. To a lesser degree, we saw that with Maxx Crosby and the new regime of the Las Vegas Raiders. One other player from this position group will likely get extended. I just do not think it will be Hendrickson. Look for Hendrickson to bite the bullet, put forth his best season to date, only to not get extended.
Verdict: Walk
Micah Parsons, Dallas Cowboys edge rusher
We may get there at some point this summer, but I am not being beaten on the head by perpetual, self-centered Jerry Jones-Dallas Cowboys contract drama when it comes to edge rusher Micah Parsons. While I mentioned one pass-rusher will get a new deal done like Maxx Crosby and Myles Garrett did earlier this offseason, Parsons is not the star edge rusher I am talking about.
However, we all know what Dallas is about from a team-building perspective. Nobody loves their own players more than the Cowboys do. This franchise does typically draft well, but where they get crushed is in the gross overpayment of their good, but not great players. Parsons is exceptional, so Dallas must make an exception for him and pay him early. They will not do this, but he will get paid. I have a feeling Parsons goes to market, but ends up resetting his position group with an extension.
Verdict: Extended
T.J. Watt, Pittsburgh Steelers edge rusher
We have finally arrived at the one pass-rusher I firmly believe will get his extension from the team he stars for. It comes down to one thing and one thing only with T.J. Watt and the Pittsburgh Steelers: Optics. How bad would the optics look for head coach Mike Tomlin, general manager Omar Khan and the entire Steelers operation if they were to let Watt walk away?
Even though he has never won a single playoff game since being drafted by the Steelers, I would be stunned to see him play anywhere else in his career, or before he exits his prime. Then again, his older brother J.J. Watt finished his hall-of-fame career with the Arizona Cardinals. He had some giddy-up left, but not much. It is why Pittsburgh will make it a point to extend Watt for the start of the season. Anything other than that will stand as even more proof that the walls are crumbling in Pittsburgh.
Verdict: Extended
O-line decisions: Smith, Miller, Slater
Trey Smith, Kansas City Chiefs guard
I cannot believe we are having this conversation. For so many reasons, the Kansas City Chiefs should extend guard Trey Smith already. I still cannot for the life of me understand why he fell to the Chiefs in the sixth round. He was an absolute stud at Tennessee. Why everybody passed on him multiple times is beyond me. That being said, there is a chance that the Chiefs could be outbid for him if he balls out.
Truth be told, Brett Veach is great at his job. He almost always finds a way. While star players do occasionally walk out of Kansas City, the bulk end up being lifelong Chiefs. I am not sure of that is 100 percent the destiny for Smith at the NFL level, but I do not think his time is done in Kansas City just yet. He is probably on the shortlist of candidates who I think will get extended before the season starts. When a team hits on a late-round pick, they should be rewarded for doing so, and not see him walk.
Verdict: Extended
Kolton Miller, Las Vegas Raiders offensive tackle
I had a difficult time figuring where I stand on Kolton Miller. When it comes to the Las Vegas Raiders, your guess is as good as mine. The new regime may be more competent than expected, but Miller has been a good soldier in utter dysfunction for a very long time. It is why I think he is more likely to leave.
The Raiders are in a very interesting spot this season. They are trying to rebuild on the fly, while also compete. They hired 70-something Pete Carroll to be their new head coach for a reason, we think... Given that he favors the other side of the ball, that may put too much stock into what polarizing offensive coordinator Chip Kelly wants to do. Miller will make money this offseason, but from who? A more well-run organization would have prioritized keeping Miller, and that is why they will lose him.
Verdict: Walk
Rashawn Slater, Los Angeles Chargers offensive tackle
Rashawn Slater feels like he is right where he belongs. The former Northwestern star has spent his entire pro career with the Los Angeles Chargers. While there have been coaching changes throughout his time with the Bolts, he has been the one responsible for keeping Justin Herbert upright. Since head coach Jim Harbaugh values offense, the chances he is extended are fairly high.
On the other side of the spectrum, Slater feels like such a Charger because he is a star player who is also injury-prone. That is the franchise's lot in life, so to speak. What I am eager to see is what kind of stamp general manager Joe Hortiz will put on this team. It still feels very Harbaugh to me. After all, Hortiz left Jim's older brother's team for a shot to run his own in Los Angeles. An extension feels safe. This may end up being a move the Chargers regret years later, but I would say extension.
Verdict: Extended
WR dilemmas: Sutton, Evans, McLaurin
Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos wide receiver
I had the hardest time figuring out what the Denver Broncos plan to do when it comes to veteran wide receiver Courtland Sutton. The former SMU star has endured so much nonsense throughout his days in Denver. Now that the team is finally getting good again, he is slated to get a new deal. Will it be from the Broncos or from somebody else? That remains to be seen. So much is riding on this season.
Ultimately, I came down to the same decision I did with Kyle Pitts in Atlanta. Sutton has always been able to get his, but will he be a necessary piece to grow forward with now that Bo Nix is entering year two out of Oregon? He is not a kid anymore, so that could be a factor. If he plays out of his mind, Denver may not be able to afford him. Should he struggle, the Denver is comfortable to let him walk. Sutton has one more contract left in him, but Denver will probably draft his replacement next spring.
Verdict: Walk
Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver
Are we really about to live in a world where Mike Evans does not spend his entire career as a member of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers? We might, but do not count on him leaving just yet. With how well the team has played in the back-half of his prime, Evans will go down as the greatest offensive player in franchise history. I understand Tom Brady did play here, but Evans is in a totally different category.
Since I trust general manager Jason Licht more than I do most front office executives, I am sure both parties will find a way to make it work for as long as it works out for both parties. Now in the second decade of his future hall-of-fame career, Evans probably needs to take a hometown discount to remain in Tampa Bay. I think he is a player who benefits tremendously from being a one-team player. This will be Evans' final contract, as he will walk away on his own accord after playing only in Tampa.
Verdict: Extended
Terry McLaurin, Washington Commanders wide receiver
Logic should prevail in the nation's capital, but we live in this world, and not one based on logic, reason, sanity or any of that other good stuff. Terry McLaurin has been the epitome of a pro's pro since coming to the Washington Commanders out of Ohio State. He has been through it all with this team. Now that Washington is on the verge of Super Bowl contention, the guy needs a new contract.
McLaurin may be a serious hold-out candidate until he strikes a new deal. That is why I believe in time, Washington will get him the multi-year deal he deserves. Adam Peters seems to know what he is doing in the front office. Dan Quinn's players love playing for him. With Kliff Kingsbury well on his way to being a retread NFL head coach again, all signs point to the Commanders extending McLaurin. The ultimate trump card has to be franchise quarterback Jayden Daniels, who will want him around.