2 reasons Bill Belichick could be genius for UNC, 2 why he’ll fail the Tar Heels

When word first broke that Bill Belichick had spoken to North Carolina about its vacant head coaching position, most people chalked it up as just more grist for the rumor mill, something to look back and laugh at in a few weeks. But then more details started to emerge, suggesting that Belichick really was interested in heading to the college ranks for the first time in his career. And now, it's all too real: According to ESPN's Adam Schefter, Belichick and the Tar Heels are finalizing an agreement for the six-time Super Bowl champion to lead its football program.

It's hard to overstate just how shocking a move this is, arguably the greatest football coach of all-time agreeing to take on a challenge he's never faced before — and doing so at a program without a ton of tradition or institutional backing, historically speaking. So: Will it work? It's hard to remember a hire that put as disparate an array of outcomes on the table; you can make the case for Belichick as a home run just as easily as you can make the case for him as a disaster waiting to happen.

Two reasons why Bill Belichick will be a home-run hire for UNC

His name still carries plenty of weight

Sure, it's been a little while now since Belichick was on top of the NFL. But his last Super Bowl win was just six years ago, recent enough for most top recruits to remember watching it on television. And more importantly. Belichick remains a presence; he's on television weekly, and he coached and has formed friendships with some of the very biggest names in the sport.

You'd have to think that when Belichick walks into a recruit's living room, they and their parents are going to listen to what he has to say. No one can more convincingly claim that they know what it takes to get to and excel in the NFL, and no one has a deeper Rolex of football celebrities to call on. This move puts UNC football on the map nationally, and gives blue-chippers a reason to take the Tar Heels' call that they simply didn't have before.

He'll force the Tar Heels to pay up

Belichick is a serious man, and he's going to demand a serious operation. That's long been a problem for this program: UNC has been considered a sleeping giant for years now due to its location, its resources and the advantage of the Jordan brand, but the school has never managed to give it the backing it needed to take off and contend on a regular basis in the ACC.

But you don't decide to hire Belichick, and you certainly don't convince him to uproot his life and take the job, unless you're finally ready to put your money where your mouth is. Recent reports suggest that Belichick's arrival has precipitated a five-fold increase in the Heels' NIL budget, from $4 million to $20 million. That number should allow UNC to throw its weight around in the South with the likes of bigger SEC programs, the sort of recruiting battles they'll need to win if they want to make themselves a nationally relevant program. If Belichick is what the powers that be needed to get its act together and act like a serious outfit, that alone might be worth it.

Two reasons why Bill Belichick will fail as UNC head coach

This might just be a ploy to get his son a job

This is, by far, the most concerning aspect of the Belichick hire. From pretty much the moment he started being connected to the job, rumors began to swirl that the former Patriots legend was only interested if he could ensure that his son Stephen, who spent the 2024 season as the defensive coordinator at Washington, would be installed as head coach-in-waiting.

Which should set of all kinds of alarm bells for Tar Heel fans. For starters, what will this mean about Belichick the elder's commitment to the job? A 400-page manifesto is all well and good, but how committed to a long-term vision can you really be if you plan on handing things off in the foreseeable future? How will the uncertainty surrounding Belichick's future, and his dedication to the job, affect recruiting? Is he going to sink his entire life into building this program, or is he keeping the seat warm?

And if Belichick does indeed want Stephen to succeed him, there's very little evidence to suggest that his son is qualified to be a big-time college coach. The younger Belichick spent his entire coaching career on his dad's staff with the Patriots before taking the Washington job this year, where he's overseen a thoroughly mediocre unit under Jedd Fisch. Granted, the Huskies were replacing a whole lot from last year's College Football Playoff team, but nothing about Belichick's performance or his resume overall would put him on an athletic director's radar if it weren't for his last name. If UNC gets stuck with Stephen at the helm in three or four years, that's a nightmare scenario.

Are we sure the game hasn't passed Belichick by?

Belichick was unemployed this season for a reason, and it's not because he chose to be. Patriots owner Robert Kraft was as close to Belichick as anyone on a daily basis, and he decided it was time to move on. And for good reason: Belichick's Pats went just 4-13 in his final year at the helm; his draft record got worse and worse; and most concerningly, his coaching staffs were more and more full of retreads and old friends.

Belichick hasn't forgotten how football works. New England's defenses remained rock solid even at the end, and it's clear that the six-time champ has done the work to stay on the cutting edge schematically. But are we sure that his player evaluation is where it needs to be? Are we sure that he's capable of filling out a coaching staff, much less any entire Power 4 program, with the best hires? If the theory of Belichick as a successful college coach hinges on him being a CEO who delegates to people below him, the fact that he had Joe Judge and Matt Patricia calling offensive plays for him as recently as two years ago doesn't bode well.