The NBA regular season is hurtling toward its conclusion, and not a moment too soon for so many teams that are limping to the finish line. The Los Angeles Lakers are one of those teams, brought low in recent weeks by a rash of injuries that have sent them from their peak as the No. 2 team in the West down to a tie for fourth.
Even after LeBron James' eighth career game-winning buzzer-beater to beat the Pacers last night, if the Lakers could snap their fingers and get to the playoffs without sustaining any more bumps and bruises, they would probably do it, regardless of what seed they ended up with. Outside of avoiding the play-in, all of the Western teams between second and sixth would likely say the same. The standings have been ever-shifting, so it's been just as likely to see the Lakers with home-court advantage against the Grizzlies in the 4-5 matchup as it has been to see Memphis with the edge over L.A. in the 3-6 series.
Home-court advantage is nice, but getting to the playoffs with a roster that is rested and ready to go is paramount. Still, as we reach the final 10 games of the season, teams will begin to maneuver in the direction of their desired first-round matchup, if they can help it.
When fully healthy, the Lakers should fear no one. Luka Doncic helped carry the Mavericks to the Finals last year. LeBron has been through the crucible of the playoffs more than anyone, and he's having what we rated as his second-best season as a Laker. The rest of the team has stepped up in a big way after Anthony Davis was traded away, or at least they had until the recent run of injuries upended things. Additionally, JJ Redick has proven that he's up to the task in his first season as a head coach.
Even though a full-strength Lakers squad should feel confident about their postseason chances, there are still easier paths than others in the quest for the Larry O'Brien trophy. If they had a choice in the matter, who would they want to play in Round 1, and who would they want to avoid?
This feels like the year that the Lakers finally take down the Nuggets
The best way to beat a bully is to give him a taste of his own medicine, and though it's sad to say about one of the NBA's proudest franchises, the Lakers have been noogied, swirlied and stuffed into a locker the past couple of postseasons by Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets. The only way to feel like this really is a new era of Lakers basketball is to take them down.
Beating the Nuggets isn't just wishful thinking. The Lakers, this version of the Lakers, knows they can do it. They stomped Denver by 23 on their home court in late February, just two weeks after Luka first suited up. He put up 30 points, 10 rebounds and seven assists in that game, while L.A.'s defense held Jokic to only 12 points.
That win snapped a five-game regular season head-to-head winning streak for the Nuggets, which was actually nine out of 10 if you include their 4-1 first-round playoff win from last spring.
When the Lakers have LeBron, Luka and Austin Reaves on the court together, they're nearly impossible to stop for even the best defenses. Denver, to put it lightly, is not one of the best defenses, especially lately. This is a matchup the Lakers could win, and the confidence boost they'd receive from slaying their tormentor could propel them to new heights.
The Rockets are hot right now, but they don't have the playoff experience to hang with LeBron and Luka
NBA history is pretty consistent in telling us that a team needs to pay its dues and experience playoff heartbreak before they can break through and really make a run. The Celtics finally broke through last season after years of falling short, and many expect the Thunder to do the same this year after they were unexpectedly knocked out in the second round by Luka and his Mavs last year.
The Rockets haven't experienced any of that. They haven't even made the playoffs since 2020, so they've never had to deal with the pain of being knocked out after a great season.
On paper, Houston is really good. Ime Udoka is a great coach, and the roster is deep and versatile. Jalen Green continues to improve as a scorer, and Alperen Sengun is one of the most underrated big men in the league. Amen Thompson is on the path to stardom, while Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks bring veteran toughness.
Only OKC and Orlando rank higher than the Rockets in team defensive rating, but the playoffs are a different deal. Luka and LeBron know how to hunt favorable matchups, and they each have the playoff experience to get this done. LeBron might be annoyed to death by up to seven games of Dillon Brooks, but the Lakers have to like their chances in this matchup.
The Timberwolves are the one team that nobody wants to face
If there's one team the Lakers would rather avoid, it's probably the Timberwolves. As of right now, Minnesota is currently a play-in team, but they're knocking on the door of being the No. 6 seed. The Lakers are one night's results from the No. 3 seed, so this matchup is extremely plausible.
The Wolves have hit a bit of a rough patch by losing three of four after winning eight straight, but they've come a long way from the team that was just 17-17 in early January. Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle have begun to find their groove together, and anchored by Rudy Gobert, Minny is ranked sixth in the league in team defensive rating.
The Wolves are dangerous for the same reason we believe the Rockets aren't. They went through the heartbreak of falling just short of the Finals last year, and that was after winning a Game 7 at the defending champion Nuggets. Yes they look different with Randle and Donte DiVincenzo in place of Karl-Anthony Towns, but Ant is a killer. It's only a matter of time until he breaks through. He won't be afraid of the moment.
These two teams have met just once since Luka arrived, but although the Lakers won that matchup, we can't draw many conclusions from it since the Wolves were without Randle and Gobert. This series would be a war, and even if the Lakers did emerge victorious, they might be too battered to handle three more series after that.