Should you sell high on Dee Gordon?

Over the next week, we will be going over the buy low and sell high options for each position. We will follow the positions the way that the powers that be in baseball decided.  Since this is the fourth installment, we will focus on position 4, which is second base!

The starting pitchers are here.  The relief pitchers are here.  The catchers are here.  The first basemen are here.

As with each baseball season, there are plenty of players that are well over or well under their career averages. Finding the players that will either shed their horrid slumps, or cool off after hot starts can be the difference between winning and losing your league.

How does one go about finding the overachievers and underachievers? Season numbers vs. careeer numbers are a good place to start. But everyone has to have a breakout season sometime. What if a players is in the midst of one of those? Sometimes you just have to go with your gut…….and hope you are reading the right column!

Seattle Mariners second baseman Robinson Cano (22) rounds the bases after hitting a two-run homer. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

Buy low candidates:

Brandon Phillips, Reds: His .269 average is right around his career mark of .271, so I wouldn’t expect any fluctuation there.  Where Phillips has been consistent though is power.  He has 18 home runs in each of the last four seasons.  No more, no less.  I am suggesting you buy because he has just four home runs on the seaoson and 22 RBI.  That puts him on a pace for 10 homers and 58 RBI, which is well below where he has finished every full year of his career.  His days of double digit steals are probably over, but I expect his home run and RBI totals to pick up.  He should hit at least 15 homers and drive in at least 75 runs.  That means he could be in for a big second half.

Robinson Cano, Mariners: Is it really possible to buy low on a guy that is hitting .333?  Maybe not, but compared to his draft position, it may happen.  Cano has shown very little power in spacious Safeco Field, but I doubt that he stays on his pace to hit just six home runs all season.  Cano’s lowest total in a season is 14, in 2005 (his rookie year) and 2008.  He has not hit less than 25 since then.  Yankee Stadium likely had something to do with that, but for a guy in the prime of his career, I would be really surprised if his sets a new career low.  His average is excellent, and he is still driving in runs, so the power will likely come around sometime soon.  Don’t give up the farm for him, but find someone frustrated with his lack of power, and dangle someone with good power at the position, like a Brian Dozier or Brett Lawrie, in a package deal.

Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox: Pedroia’s power was down last year as well, but what surprises me is his low average (.267) and his low steals (just two in six attempts).  Pedroia has double digit steals in every year since 2007 except for 2010 (he had nine that year in only 75 games).  Is his speed gone at age 30?  Probably not, so this puts him in the buy low list.  His lowest batting average in a season is .288.  While he might not make that mark, I am better that he gets up to at least .280.  Pedroia’s numbers are low across the board, so find some frustrated owner and offer him someone from the lower section.

Minnesota Twins second baseman Brian Dozier (2) circles the bases after hitting a two-run home run Mandatory Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports

Sell high candidates:

Dee Gordon, Dodgers: Gordon is having a breakout season, but I seriously doubt he can keep up his .288 average.  And he is on pace to steal 87 bases.  Who was the last person to steal that many, you may ask?  You have to go all the way back to Rickey Henderson with the Yankees in 1988.  Which is the same year that Dee Gordon was born.  If you need steals, it might be wise to hang on to Gordon anyway.  He has 36 steals in 41 attempts so far, so I think he still ends up with 60 or so.  If you can spare the steals though, it makes sense to deal him.

Brian Dozier, Twins: Dozier is another young guy having a great season so far.  He has already matched last year’s total in stolen bases (14), and is almost there in home runs (he has 14 already).  That combination of power and speed is difficult to find, especially at a shallow position at second base.  So why am I skeptical?  Well, I’m a Twins fan, so it’s bred into you.  That and Dozier is still not bringing his batting average up with his other numbers.  He will still wind up with a breakout season, but I am guessing that he will have a hard time hitting that 20/20 plateau, and he won’t come near the 30/30 that he is on pace for.  If you can find someone willing to pay that price, I would let him go.

Emilio Bonifacio, Cubs: Bonifacio is flashing his greatest asset, which is his speed.  But none of his numbers jump off the page as unsustainable.  So why is here on here then?  Because someone will have to lose playing time to make room for Kris Bryant.  And that someone is likely Bonifacio with Luis Valbuena having a great season.  Valbuena will likely move to second base to make room for Bryant at third.  That means Bonifacio and Valbuena will have to battle for at-bats at second.  I want no part of that headache, so trade him while he still has value.  If you wait until he loses his job, you won’t get much.

Come back tomorrow for position 5, the third basemen!