Jun 15, 2014; San Antonio, TX, USA; Miami Heat forward LeBron James (6) sits on the bench at the end of the game against the San Antonio Spurs in game five of the 2014 NBA Finals at AT&T Center. The Spurs defeated the Heat 104-87 to win the NBA Finals. Mandatory Credit: Brendan Maloney-USA TODAY Sports
Freelance Friday is a project that lets us share our platform with the multitude of talented writers and basketball analysts who aren’t part of our regular staff of contributors. As part of that series we’re proud to present this guest post from Blake Golom (@BlakeGolom). Blake lives in Philadelphia is a fantasy basketball aficionado, a huge fan of the current Sixers, and thinks sports writers, especially those working for multi-billion dollar corporations, should have to cite their sources.
Every year one team is crowned NBA Champion, but is every champion created equal? Typically, when a team achieves some level of greatness, the ensuing debate is figuring out where that team matches up among the all-time greats. Where do the Heat’s four consecutive trips to the NBA Finals rank among the dynasties? Just how impressive are Kobe’s Lakers and Duncan’s Spurs over the past eighteen years? Should we be using Jordan’s Bulls as the measuring stick for all dynasties post-2000?
Over the past decade it has been difficult to look at the Eastern Conference’s #8 seed as a legitimate playoff team. Essentially, the Eastern Conference’s #1 seed has had a bye in the first round while the Western Conference #8 seed would often have had home court advantage in the first round if they were in the Eastern Conference. Consider, if the Indiana Pacers (the Heat’s toughest test in the past two playoffs) were in the Western Conference the past two years, would they win any playoff series, or would they even make the playoffs? The idea that the first round of the Eastern Conference playoffs has been a gimme for the top seed led to researching each conference champion’s path to the NBA Finals. If the first round for the Eastern Conference top seed is a gimme, is the second round a gimme as well? Does the Western Conference give their champions any easy roads to the Finals? Do both conference champions fight the same fight to get to the Finals?
In an attempt to answer these questions, or at a minimum provide some statistical analysis that can overcome a person’s bias to their generation, the following article analyzes the difficulty, or ease, of the Eastern and Western Conference champions’ path to the Finals, going back to 1990. In order to do this, I will look at the number of games above 0.500 of each team that the eventual Eastern and Western Conference Champions beat in the playoffs. The more games above 0.500 that a conference champion defeats, the harder the road to the Finals.
Data Dump: Cumulative Games Above 0.500 of Teams Beaten by Conference Champions Since 1990
The middle two columns on the chart below show the cumulative number of games above 0.500 of the three teams beaten by the eventual Eastern Conference and Western Conference Champions in a given year. The higher the number of games above 0.500, the tougher the road to the NBA Finals. The lower the number of games above 0.500 the easier the road to the NBA Finals. For simplicity, the green colors indicate easy roads to the Finals and the red colors indicate difficult roads to the Finals. The data collected begins when the NBA expanded to 27 teams in the 1989-90 season and provides a sample set of 50 conference champions over 25 years.
This chart is fairly intense and has a lot of numbers and information, but remember the color coding is meant to simplify the data. The Western Conference doesn’t have much green (or easy roads to the Finals), and most of it is back in the 90’s. Conversely, the Eastern Conference is predominantly green, aside from a couple of red years. It is interesting to see the variation between paths to the Finals as the numbers range from a low of 19 to a high of 116 games above 0.500. If you find the chart overwhelming, focus on the middle columns and then expand your focus to the other columns if interested.
The 15 Easiest Paths to the Finals and Lebron’s Heat
The chart below shows the 15 easiest roads to the NBA Finals, or the 15 lowest cumulative games above 0.500 of teams beaten by the Eastern and Western Conference champions. Interestingly, the Western Conference only represents three of the easiest paths to the Finals. One of them was the strike shortened 1999 season and the others occurred in 1993 and 1996. In other words, the last time the Western Conference Champions had an easy road to the Finals in a full season was 18 years ago. Another interesting highlight of this chart is that the Miami Heat’s last three trips to the Finals have been three of the top 15 easiest roads to the NBA Finals since 1990. The Miami Heat’s road to the NBA Finals in 2013 was the easiest of the past 25 years, with the three teams they played in the Eastern Conference Playoffs (Bucks, Bulls, Pacers) combining for a mere 19 games over 0.500. The Miami Heat are the most represented team in this chart.
How history remembers the Miami Heat’s four consecutive appearances to the NBA Finals will be influenced by a number of things. However, to measure the “greatness” of the Miami Heat in the Big 3 era and put it in context, the strength of their road to the NBA Finals should be heavily weighted. History rarely recalls the New Jersey Nets teams that made the NBA Finals in 2002 and 2003, and it is with good reason since they benefitted from two of the six easiest roads to the Finals. Similarly, are the Heat’s four consecutive trips to the NBA Finals really that much of an accomplishment when they have benefitted from the 1st, 9th, and 14th easiest roads to the Finals?
The 5 Toughest Roads to the Finals
This research is not meant to bash the Heat or Lebron (even though his other Finals appearance with the 2007 Cavaliers was the 4th easiest road to the Finals). Rather, it is meant to highlight teams like the 1995 Rockets that had to beat teams who were a combined 116 games over 0.500 to play in the Finals. Or the 2009 Magic, 2002 Lakers, 2006 Mavericks, and 2008 Celtics, who rounded out the top 5 most difficult roads to the Finals since 1990 (Chart 3 below). If history is going to remember making the NBA Finals a consecutive number of times as a great achievement, or anything that doesn’t include winning a championship, then history should start recognizing the teams that had the toughest road to the Finals, even if they didn’t win anything.
Evaluating LeBron’s Free Agency Decision
The NBA is finishing up another wild free agency where organizations continue the quest to assemble “super teams” or provide themselves the financial flexibility to super-fy their teams in the next free agency period. This year, the NBA’s free agent class was highlighted by Lebron James, who returned to the Cleveland Cavaliers. There was wild speculation about where Lebron would sign, but it is difficult to see Lebron ever leaving the Eastern Conference that has afforded him the paths of least resistance to play for NBA Championships. Considering Lebron’s legacy will ultimately be defined by the number of titles, I would bet that he stays in the Eastern Conference again when he becomes a free agent in two years.
Final Takeaways
Overall, I was shocked at how “easy” the Eastern Conference has been over the past 25 years. I figured the East wasn’t as good as the West, but I never thought the disparity would be this great. The five biggest takeaways I had from this research were:
1. Love ‘em or hate ‘em, Kobe Bryant and Tim Duncan never shied away from competition.
2. Jordan’s second three-peat (‘96-’98) makes up for the relative ease of his first three-peat (‘91-’93).
3. If you are chasing a title, go East (someone should have told Gary Payton and Karl Malone).
4. Don’t support NBA expansion until the Eastern Conference’s #8 seed is regularly over 0.500.