Apr 29, 2014; Chicago, IL, USA Chicago Bulls guard Jimmy Butler (21), center Joakim Noah (13), guard D.J. Augustin (14) and forward Mike Dunleavy (34) huddle against the Washington Wizards in game five in the first round of the 2014 NBA Playoffs at United Center. Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports
Freelance Friday is a project that lets us share our platform with the multitude of talented writers and basketball analysts who aren’t part of our regular staff of contributors. As part of that series we’re proud to present this guest post from Jeff Feyerer. Jeff is a school financial administrator during the day, but on the side he fulfills his love of basketball through coaching and copious amounts of basketball writing and research. He currently is NBA Editor in Chief at RosterResource.com and is starting up a College Basketball analytics site this fall at thetransitiongame.com. Follow him on Twitter at @jfey5 and@NBARosters.
In my introduction to playing time efficiency posted on the last Freelance Friday, I touched on the creation of the statistic (PTE) and its role in understanding team dynamics based on playing times and individual players’ development within the role on their particular NBA squad. To review:
PTE = Playing Time Efficiency = (Player Net Efficiency-Team Net Efficiency)* Playing Time Percentage
The four examples I gave in that article (Joakim Noah, Josh Smith, Kevin Love and Reggie Jackson) varied enough that you can see how PTE measures role changes based on injuries or a player’s natural basketball evolution. While showing the metric on an individual level does provide some context to playing time efficiency, the true value of the metric results when viewing the data relative to performance by the entire team. It is only then you can see the effect of playing time distribution and change in usage that ultimately effects the efficiency of the team.
To best illustrate playing time efficiency withing the scope of the team, I wanted to choose an example with the following components:
- A team with a marginal shift in personnel over a two-year period: It’s easy to show why a team got better when acquiring LeBron James, but why did a team get better OR worse when maintaining much of the same personnel.
- A team that outperformed or underperformed expectations: To see the non-surface level reasons for the performance.
- A team with young talent that may have been asked to switch roles based on circumstances: To show development, ability to adapt or lack thereof.
It was convenient than that the Chicago Bulls, the team I watch most based on proximity and the fact Tom Thibodeau’s voice carries from the United Center to my house, fit all of these points. They saw little turnover with personnel (6 of 9 players that played at least 20% of the available minutes in 2012-2013 hit that mark in 2013-2014), they outperformed expectations each year (making the playoffs in both without contributions from their best player) and have players like Jimmy Butler, Joakim Noah and Taj Gibson who were tasked with picking up the slack for their missing superstar. And for covering Carlos Boozer’s defense.
To compare the team’s performance over two seasons, the data I have will be presented in two formats:
- A data table for each of the two seasons – to summarize each season and capture the performance of each player
- A scatter plot with each season on the same graph – to compare/contrast the two seasons
With this data, we will try to find reasons why the Bulls record improved by three games, why their net efficiency went from 0.3 to 2.0 and what it means for the Bulls going forward.
Similar to the individual player tables I put together, the data presented includes the following:
Age: To evidence player development
PT%: Threshold was 20% of the available minutes for one player during the season
USG%: To show a player’s role on offense (based on field goal attempts, free throw attempts, turnovers)
ORtg: Offensive Rating based on points produced
DRtg: Defensive Rating based on points allowed
PTE: (Player Net Efficiency-Team Net Efficiency)*PT%
PTOE: PTE based solely on offensve
PTDE: PTE based solely on defense
To see each both seasons together, I’ve created a scatter plot with playing time % on the x-axis and PTE on the y-axis. Simply, any players above the x-axis, regardless of playing time, had a positive impact on the team’s performance with the converse true to those residing below.
*Although there is not a true linear relationship between playing time and PTE, a line of best fit is shown to approximate the point of the average player on the team at that amount of playing time.
SUMMARY POINTS:
- Luol Deng – For all of the complaining that his trade signaled the Bulls giving up on the 2013-2014 season, he actually had a negative effect on the ’12-13 season. His shot selection dependency on long-twos brought inefficient offense and his defensive efficiency was declining based on minutes played and age.
- Joakim Noah – Noah pulled off the rare trifecta of increased playing time, increased usage and increased efficiency. His usage and PT will most likely decline with the return of Rose and the additions of Gasol, McDermott and Mirotic, but his PTE should remain high.
- Carlos Boozer – He is who we thought he was. His positive defensive efficiency in each season is more a product of playing next to Noah or Gibson than it is his own skills (Defensive efficiency tends to have a smaller variance from the team average than offense) and in the grand scheme of things, his high usage and negative value on offense sucked away any value he might have resulting in a PTE drop from 0.45 to -2.72.
- Jimmy Butler – Butler saw almost a 10% increase in playing time in 13-14 and was able to maintain a positive PTE despite a 2% increase in usage. His basic shooting percentages dropped drastically in 13-14, but with the return of Rose and his continued development, Butler should take another step forward in 14-15.
- Taj Gibson – Gibson’s PTE decreased slightly in 13-14 due to increased playing time (healthier, Boozer benched during 4th quarters) and a higher usage %. Gibson’s true value is as the first big off the bench, one he will revert back to in 14-15. This will most likely lead to an uptick in his efficiency numbers and a potential increase in PTE despite the decrease in playing time.
- Kirk Hinrich – As one would expect from an aging guard who saw an increase in minutes and usage, his PTE dropped from -1.03 to -2.15. It’s clear at this point in his career, Hinrich should be nowhere near the starting lineup, as he was so often in 13-14, but with Rose back (and hopefully staying healthy), Hinrich will revert back to a more appropriate role.
- Ball Dominant PG (Nate Robinson/DJ Augustin) – Each of these guys were life savers for the Bulls. At a time when the only guy on the Bulls roster who could create offense was on the sideline, Robinson and Augustin made the most of their opportunity. Both played about 50% of the available minutes and drastically outpaced the team offensive efficiency numbers. In fact, their offense was so good relative to the rest of the Bulls that their horrid defense didn’t matter and resulted in a positive PTE for both players. But Augustin was the better overall player because he decided not to be as big of a chucker as Robinson. Augustin knew when to shoot and when not to, while Robinson has never operated like that.
- Insert Wing Shooter Here (Belinelli/Dunleavy) – There’s no question who the better player is in this situation and the PTE numbers back it up. Belinelli’s defense was awful, while Dunleavy’s was just bad. Belinelli tended to force the issue too much (at one point out of a fit of desperation, Thibodeau used Belinelli as the main ball handler), but Dunleavy could play off the ball and clearly had a better idea of when to shoot and when not to shoot even if the options around him weren’t that great. Going from Belinelli’s -1.58 PTE to Dunleavy’s 2.63 was a reason for the Bulls uptick in record and team efficiency.
- Negligible Wing Man (Hamilton/Snell) – Both had negative value to the team, but the difference is Snell’s performance can be attributed to growing pains in his development while Hamilton’s is due to the pains of old age. Snell should continue to improve and was able to show some of that in this year’s Summer League (take that for what you will).
The Bulls performance, in spite of offensive deficiencies in both 12-13 and 13-14, can be attributed to an outstanding coach who’s willing to adapt, but also to an otherworldly performance from Joakim Noah, an improvement from Belinelli to Dunleavy, and a more efficient offensive performance from the PG position.
What does this all mean for the 2014-2015 season in regards to PTE?
Getting Derrick Rose back is obviously a key, but Rose at 50% can probably outpace what they were getting from Hinrich as a starter. The true key is the depth and the increased flexibility of the roster. They now have two of the best passing big men in the league, improved three-point shooting, and improved shot creating which means offense should be easier to come by allowing more effort to be exerted on the defensive end and a more efficient brand of basketball, which I guarantee you Tom Thibodeau will like.
In the third part of the series, I’ll expand more on playing time efficiency and how PTE can be expanded and adapted to measure a player’s true value against every other player in the league.
*All statistics from Basketball-Reference.com