TeamSPACE: Ring Ring Ring

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| Artoyz Paris

Welcome back.

In theory, you know the drill by now. You’ve seen these charts before — for every team last season.

But wait! This time around, the data is slightly different than previous. Using the sheer wizardry of Darryl Blackport (go follow him on Twitter right now; I’ll wait) and the cleanliness that is Basketball-Reference.com, the most used starting lineup (not most used lineup) was identified for every NBA Champion since 1996-1997. From there, the combined shot activity for those five players was compiled and analyzed, establishing Hunting Grounds. My working hypothesis was that we would observe the gradual shift towards the dynamics of a successful lineup in 2013-2014 and beyond. Theoretically, each season’s Champ serves as a proxy for ‘success’ that season; ideally we are tracking success since the mid-90s. This also offers the unique opportunity to track some powerhouses/budding dynasties over the past 18 seasons.

Did I mention “since 1996?!” But that would include prime Duncan, Shaq, prime Dirk, The Admiral, prime Kobe, and… Jordan.

Yes, Michael Jordan and the Bulls. It’s about time.

First, the three “one-time offenders” of this time period:

Detroit Pistons, 2003-2004

2003-2004 Detroit Pistons

If something doesn’t look quite right here, it’s probably at the Power Forward spot. Where’s Sheed? Technically, Mehmet Okur started more games than Wallace that season. So in the interest of consistency (even though it didn’t feel quite right), we’re here.

This team was never known as a offensive powerhouse. Aside from the Power Forward, this chart is a bit of a chaotic blend of generations. Tayshaun Prince and Chauncey Billups are active long-range bombers, but Prince is a bit too scattered to be a pure 3-and-D player. Rip Hamilton resembles characteristics of the 90s prototype 2-guard, foreshadowing Dwyane Wade. Unexpectedly, Ben Wallace is not a Tyson  Chandler-type of rim-only presence; Big Ben was active near the foul line and top of the key, as well as cluttering Rip and Okur’s baseline Hunting Grounds.

Boston Celtics, 2007-2008

2007-2008 Boston Celtics

This Celtics team was incredibly balanced, which is completely unsurprising. Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett are nearly symmetrical: every Allen Hunting Ground from deep is mirrored by a Garnett equivalent from the midrange. The pairing was a deadly combination by this stage of their careers.

So deadly, in fact, that little room is really left for Paul Pierce to operate. Pierce, essentially a hybrid of Allen and Garnett, is active in a variety of distinct areas, with unsurprising precision. However, he occupies less overall space than Rajon Rondo, which is surprising.

This is nitpicking though, as this season’s Celtics were well-spaced and deadly from multiple spots on the court.

Dallas Mavericks, 2010-2011

2010-2011 Dallas Mavericks

If you haven’t noticed by now, I’ll point out the obvious: each of this one-time champs are distinctly different. This configuration of Mavs really isn’t much different than the 2013-2014 version, with a few notable exceptions:

• ’10-’11 Kidd, despite being very active from long range, still isn’t the assassin that Calderon was last season.
• ’10-’11 DeShawn Stephenson doesn’t have the precision, nor the midrange of Monta Ellis. Said differently, Ellis is relegated to the corner 3-pointer, the elbow, and the paint; Stephenson freely roamed the 3-point line.
• Dirk owns the midrange, regardless of the season. However, from 3-point land ’10-’11 Dirk is much more precise, to include the corners, than last season’s model. No area is safe in the midrange.

Compared to the other one-timers, the Mavs had a consistent, almost intentional, amount of overlap. The 3-point line had four consistent shooters, and almost all of Caron Butler’s Hunting Grounds overlap with Dirk.

And now, the “recidivists”…

Miami Heat (3)
2005-2006

2005-2006 Miami Heat

2011-2012

2011-2012 Miami Heat

2012-2013

2012-2013 Miami Heat

Interesting. Obviously major components changed over the three seasons (with the exception of Dwyane Wade and Udonis Haslem), but the system remained eerily similar. If anything the precision of each role’s activity increases drastically over time, a testament to their high-functioning power. Jason Williams and Mario Chalmers are nearly identical. D-Wade’s Hunting Grounds shrink over time, but stay in the same spots: the paint, the elbows, and a bit on the baseline. Haslem stays active along the baseline and top of the key.

The biggest changes are James Posey and Shaq swapped for Lebron James and Chris Bosh. Both changes are fairly easy to understand. Bosh, on paper/computer screen, resembles ’07-’08 Garnett for the first ring, and some Tim Duncan-with-a-corner-3 for the second one. Bosh picks up (and exceeds) some of the midrange activity from a declining Haslem and non-threat Joel Anthony. I’m tabling my comments on Shaq until we go back to Cali.

Posey was the 3-and-D gunner in ’05-’06; Lebron is a study in efficiency. Initially in the midrange for ’11-’12 and moving to the 3-point line the following season, Lebron is a surgeon when he shoots. When Hunting Grounds develop like this it is indicative of small, tight pockets of high activity; think of it as taking 100 shots within one footstep of each other, compared to 100 shots taken within 10 feet of each other. When normalized across the league, the best scorers (Lebron, KD, Dirk, Shaq, Kobe…Jordan) exhibit these same patterns. Lebron was precise in ’11-’12, but even more so the year after. Also worth noting: Lebron a monster at the rim, which can be hard to see in these charts, with virtually every lineup in most lineups having a Hunting Ground at the rim.

The ’12-’13 Heat is how we should remember the Big Three; in their prime they were a fine-tuned machine – consistent, precise, and efficient.

Los Angeles Lakers (5)
1999-2000

1999-2000 Los Angeles Lakers

2000-2001

2000-2001 Los Angeles Lakers

2001-2002

2001-2002 Los Angeles Lakers

2008-2009

2008-2009 Los Angeles Lakers

2009-2010

2009-2010 Los Angeles Lakers

In general, these championship TeamSPACE charts are an opportunity to appreciate the different types of dominance from superstars operating in unique systems. As previously evidenced by Dirk and Lebron, these Lakers teams reiterate the greatness of Kobe and Shaq. O’Neal is amazing, quite frankly: he has the precise Hunting Grounds akin to a high volume scorer (Dirk, KD, Melo) in such a confined space. The average Center from this generation is a blob of gray at the rim, with nothing extending to the blocks (unless you’re Spencer Hawes and you bomb atomically). Shaq operates like KD in a shrunken space. Too often his offense is remembered for vicious dunks instead of his scoring prowess.

And this, among other factors, is what makes The Curious Case of Andrew Bynum so, well, curious. His Hunting Grounds are less precise versions of Shaq’s – he was trending in the right direction! He was active from both blocks to the foul line. Yes, those areas are a bit cluttered for the Bynum Years, but the signs were there; we were robbed of his maturation.

Beyond The Diesel, there’s some significant similarities across all five teams:

• Midrange shooting 4s. From A.C. Green to Horace Grant to (a lesser extent, but still) Samaki Walker to eventually Pau Gasol, L.A. featured a consistent elbow/baseline-shooting PF presence.
• 3-point gunners at the Point and Wing. Ron Harper, Lindsay Hunter and Derek Fisher all had freedom of movement from Shaq+Kobe, and only occasionally appeared in the midrange. The same was true for Glen Rice, Rick Fox, Luke Walton and ‘The Metta Ron Panda’s World Artest Peace Friend’ – primarily active from deep, with just a bit in midrange.

What’s different is Bryant; really, the Two Shades of Kobe. During the O’Neal years it’s ‘kobe,’ but for the final two rings it’s ‘KOBE.’ Major upticks in active areas, to no one’s surprise.

San Antonio Spurs (5)
1998-1999

1998-1999 San Antonio Spurs

2002-2003

2002-2003 San Antonio Spurs

2004-2005

2004-2005 San Antonio Spurs

2006-2007

2006-2007 San Antonio Spurs

2013-2014

2013-2014 San Antonio Spurs

Consistency. Literally some of the exact same Hunting Grounds for Tony Parker and Tim Duncan ring after ring after ring after ring. Like clockwork, Parker is active from the elbows and the paint, occasionally dabbling from beyond the arc. Parker took Avery Johnson’s activity and reduced the footprint – more precise, reducing some of the midrange – and perfected it.

Meanwhile, Duncan does not change. Literally. It’s the paint, spilling across the baseline, and the top of the key, with splotches towards the elbows. On each chart, the green and yellow rarely, if ever, overlap – Parker and Duncan compliment each other unsurprisingly well. They cover all the areas from inside the arc a team would want to – key locations indicative of opportunities sprung from consistent and effective play calling.

As the formula goes, three pieces remain:

• A relatively uninspiring big man that stays attached to the rim (hello there Tiago Splitter, Francisco Elson, Rasto Nesterovic, and late-career David Robinson)
• An almost exclusive 3-point shooting 2-guard (from Mario Elie to Stephen Jackson to Manu Ginboli to Danny Green)
• An original 3-and-D prototype. While there are hints Ron Harper in its origin, Harper had too much midrange activity still. Really, based on this data, it starts with Sean Elliot. Compare Elliot to last season’s Kawhi Leonard… Identical. Painfully identical. In between Elliot and Leonard was Bruce Bowen, one of the best known 3-and-D’ers.

Frankly, there is not much difference between the ’02-’03 Spurs and the ’13-’14 Spurs… Except for 11 years. We hear a lot about how the Spurs have evolved our time, in the face of a changing game. While this is undoubtedly true, this appears to speak to how they get their shots. Where they get their shots has remained consistent for more than a decade. I suppose this is the result of an All-Time great forward, Hall of Fame point guard, and legendary coach.

Chicago Bulls (2)
1996-1997

1996-1997 Chicago Bulls

1997-1998

1997-1998 Chicago Bulls

To list the Bulls with only two rings is completely arbitrary and purely a function of the data cutoff. Obviously the Bulls also won the year prior to the data (1995-1996), as well as three other championships earlier in the 90s. So that “2” should really be a “6,” hence listing them last, out of respect (from a Knicks fan, no less!). To be honest, it’s slightly surreal to even look at Jordan this way: these two Bulls teams showcase the beginning of Jordan’s transition to the fadeaway/post-up/midrange jumper phase of his career. This is merely a glimpse of the Later Airness. Comparing to just the other Champs described here, he’s a more active Kobe, more precise Dirk, and more dominant everyone. Part of what is so interesting about Jordan is what you don’t see: almost no activity from behind the arc or in the paint. Clearly, he would never cut it on the Rio Grande Vipers.

Quick side note: Ron Harper started for 4 of 5 champs from 1996-2000 (Bulls, Lakers). Huh.

This is also a friendly reminder that Scottie Pippen was hurt for a non-trivial amount of games in ’97-’98, and the Bulls still won… with Toni Kukoc, Ron Harper, Dennis Rodman, and Luc Longley accompanying His Airness. Wow.

So What?

Fair question: do these charts tell us anything new? While yes, over time there has been a shift towards today’s current shots of preference, it hasn’t necessarily been systematic and intentional. If anything, the shot locations of the Spurs are not much different than they were in 1998-1999. To an extent the same is true of the Heat. This is more indicative of prevailing systems (Spurs, Heat) and superstar dominance (Bulls, Lakers), which may actually tie back to the coaching philosophies of Gregg Popovich, Pat Riley->Erik Spoelstra, and Phil Jackson combined with the right personnel. If any of that is true, next season becomes even more interesting with all three still very active. Oh, and the one-offs during this time period occurred once every 3-4 years, with the next one due… next season.

We’re not done with these teams quite yet, though. In the near future I’ll be introducing some new metrics associated with these charts.

Data and photo support provided courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball-Reference.com, and Darryl Blackport.