Today’s NBA is different from the NBA almost all of us grew up with. Yes, we will continue to honor the past for necessary reasons, but it is also important to acknowledge the changing nature of the game of basketball on the brink of a new season.
Today’s basketball has evolved. There’s no doubt about it. One could argue it is better or worse. That’s not the point of this post. I think the game is clearly more scientific and played by more incredible athletic specimens. The game could be said to be less brutal and more space-obsessive. To some, but certainly not for all, these are the new glory days of the sport.
That on-court evolution can be displayed within the clear-cut trade-off between two offensive statistics: Three-point attempt rate (Tm3PA/TmFGA) and offensive rebound rate (TmORB/(TmORB+OppDRB)) [1. To note, there also has been a mildly related trade-off between Effective Field Goal Percentage ((2*2PM+3*3PM)/FGA) and Free Throw Rate (FTA/FGA). The correlation is not as strong in this relationship, however, and these changes appear to be more dependent on the base statistics that were picked.]. These can be charted against each other since the NBA’s introduction of the three-point shot for the 1979-80 season.
From this chart alone [2. Twitter hat tip to Adam Mares, the creator of the must-read NBA PhD program Twitter list on Reddit.], and no further information, one should be mightily intrigued by the development of the NBA’s average offense. For 35 years, the league has been steadily trading offensive rebounds for threes [3. Which, one could argue, makes Kirk Goldsberry’s adamant stance that Kevin Love sacrifice threes for inside play a bit out-dated.]. The jump was especially notable for 2013-14, which set a record for most threes and a modern era record for fewest offensive rebounds.
As it turns out, however, the trade-off hasn’t made any significant impact on overall Offensive Rating (Points/100 Possessions). Besides a relatively down blip in the late ‘90s/early ‘00s, league offense has actually been remarkably consistent. The chart below is from Basketball-Reference data [4. I’ll note later when I use a different source for Offensive Rating. The calculations do vary greatly.]:
One will notice quickly that the lockout 2011-12 season precipitated a massive drop in league offense. It was one of the largest year-to-year changes, positive or negative, in league history. But since that odd down production, offense is back on the rise again – from 104.6 to 105.9 to 106.7 last season.
That increase, coupled with the trade-off chart above and several other league-wide trends, presents the following question: Could we see a new record for league Offensive Rating this year?
The record of 108.3 has been set three times previously, 1986-87, 1994-95 and 2008-09. There have been several other seasons in the high 107s/low 108s. A jump of 1.6 or more isn’t that outrageous of a consideration – it has happened four times in 35 years since the institution of the three-point line. And there are several ongoing disruptions that might make this possible:
Teams seem to be developing on offense. This could go hand-in-hand with the fall of the archetypal dominant low-post center. But generally, only one young team (Orlando) could be said to be emphasizing defense first in its roster construction. In contrast, several other young teams (Sacramento, LA Lakers, Milwaukee, Utah, to name a few) are horrendous defensively and feature some intriguing offensive prospects. This is just a brief observation. But it could be starting to make a meaningful difference.
Indiana’s defense won’t be the best. Indiana had a league-best 99.3 Defensive Rating last season. With the loss of Paul George and Roy Hibbert’s near-inexplicable decline, they could fall out of the top five or perhaps top 10 this season. This sudden development alone will could boost league-wide offense by half a point. That’s how dominant they were defensively.
San Antonio’s championship cemented the league’s offensive style revolution. Teams noticed how the Spurs shot the lights out in the postseason. They noticed how everyone on the court was a threat from deep. They picked up on the value of European-based cuts and offensive creativity. This isn’t new by any means, as we saw earlier. But we’ll likely see a new record in three-point attempts and a renewed interest in funky sets.
Other summer transactions could influence offense. Kevin Love, LeBron James, Kyrie Irving and Mike Miller on one Cavaliers team? Derrick Rose being the necessary creator for the Bulls? Full seasons from Ryan Anderson and Brook Lopez? Stan Van Gundy back? There was a ton of movement this past summer yet again. Overall, I think these many moves, including ones I didn’t mention, will lead to a very slight net uptick in offense as well.
Offensive Rating climbed substantially down the stretch last season. Now, this is the big one. Take a look below at the table from NBA.com/stats [6. Note: Different source than the Basketball-Reference date used previously. It’s not easy to find month-by-month league data on B-Ref, so that’s why I was forced to use NBA.com/stats. It’s pretty obvious to note the difference: league-wide ORtg was 104.1 on NBA.com/Stats and 106.7 on B-Ref. Someone way smarter than me could explain exactly why that is the case. Most likely, it’s a difference in how possessions are estimated or counted.] on how offense changed month-by-month:
Anecdotally, I do believe that offense does improve as most seasons continue [7. Randall Cooper (@laughingcavs) had a neat chart on 2012-13 data a while back, but I’d have to more thoroughly look to really give a concrete answer on this topic.]. Last season’s change appears to be quite drastic, though, and especially so in March and April. Effective field goal percentages and three-point rates were way higher. If that trend continues, then we could be in for a wild, wild ride.
All of these narratives contribute to an overall excitement for the season ahead. Yes, there are tons and tons of player and team storylines to explore. But from a meta perspective, we also could be on the brink of some history in the NBA.