Numbers to Know: 7%

Oct 6, 2014; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Bulls forward Pau Gasol (16) dribbles the ball against Washington Wizards center Marcin Gortat (4) during the second half at the United Center. The Washington Wizards defeat the Chicago Bulls 85-81. Mandatory Credit: Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports

With the Opening Night just around the corner, Nylon Calculus is going to be previewing the upcoming season by taking you through some of the most important numbers to know, numbers that help tell stories about players, teams and league-wide trends.

Pau Gasol’s February 2008 trade to the Los Angeles Lakers was a pivotal move for the franchise. A team that had struggled by its own lofty standards following the Shaq-Kobe divorce a few years earlier found their stride with their new All-Star addition, putting up a Finals appearance that very season and consecutive titles in the next two.

Gasol’s individual numbers were stellar during this period, his usage lowering slightly from his alpha dog days in Memphis, while his efficiency continued to improve. For his first three full seasons in a Lakers uniform (the two title seasons plus a somewhat-surprising second-round sweep at the hands of eventual champ Dallas in 2011), Pau posted a stellar 18.7 points, 10.3 boards, and 3.4 assists while maintaining a True Shooting Percentage of 59.9 percent.

But over the following three years, Gasol’s game and numbers fell almost across the board. Some of this can be explained by age, most notably a decline in rebounding and free-throw rate, understandable developments for a seven-footer crossing the 30-year threshold with so many miles already on his body. But perhaps most noticeable was this worrisome trend: Gasol’s three-year TS% from the 08-09 season until 10-11 fell a full seven percentage points over the next three years (from the above 59.9 to 52.9), a precipitous drop that can’t be accounted for only by the aging process.

A number of factors likely contributed to Pau’s decreasing effectiveness, but chief among them was his supporting cast in LA’s frontcourt. In that first three-year segment, the top of the Lakers’ big rotation featured Gasol, Lamar Odom and Andrew Bynum. All three could provide rim protection, Bynum was the (admittedly volatile) interior bull, Odom could stretch the floor and contribute everywhere, and Gasol was the elbow anchor for the last truly elite triangle offense the league has seen.

Over the next three years, including last season, things changed. Even with one more year of Bynum plus the Dwight Howard experiment in 12-13, LA’s frontcourt was a shell of its championship form. Names like Troy Murphy, Robert Sacre and Ryan Kelly all logged rotation minutes, often directly alongside the big Spaniard. In total, despite Bynum and Howard skewing the figures upward (both produced efficiency numbers that overrate their true on-court performances, especially when factoring in elements like maturity and leadership), the next two names on the frontcourt depth chart produced an average PER of nearly 8 points less than the Odom-Bynum combo from the title years.

Gasol will be a member of a different frontcourt this year. And while there’s no apples-to-apples comparison to be had due to differing playing styles, there’s every reason to think a Gasol-Joakim Noah-Taj Gibson rotation could signal a return to Pau’s glory days.

Noah might be the best individual big man Gasol has played next to and, as the reigning DPOY, is certainly the best defender (considering the back injury Howard was struggling with during his one season in L.A.). He’s also become easily the best passer – Noah’s per-minute assist numbers last year were nearly identical to the combined figure for Odom and Bynum over their careers. This must be a welcome sight to a player in Gasol, who has badly lacked the space he needs to operate in recent years, likely a large factor in his declining shooting numbers.

And then there’s Gibson, consistently in the hunt for Sixth Man of the Year with his stellar play off the bench. He lacks Odom’s ability to stretch the defense out beyond the arc, but is similar in many ways as a utility man capable of making an impact in various areas; from solid, workmanlike defense to an offensive game that has diversified over the last couple years. He’ll be a smart and non-invasive frontcourt partner for Gasol when the two share the court, while shouldering just enough offensive burden to keep Pau fresh.

Seven percentage points is a big shooting drop – can a change of scenery, and more importantly teammates, get Gasol back on an upward trajectory here? Don’t rule it out. His burden will be eased on both ends of the court, and while Chicago may not be the LeBron Heat as far as offensive spacing goes, the undeniable upgrade in talent around him surely lends itself to a resurgence. Expect some scary things from a talented and experienced Bulls front line this year.