Oct 6, 2014; San Diego, CA, USA; Los Angeles Lakers head coach Byron Scott during the first half against the Denver Nuggets at Valley View Casino Center. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports
With Opening Night just around the corner, Nylon Calculus is going to be previewing the upcoming season by taking you through some of the most important numbers to know, numbers that help tell stories about players, teams and league-wide trends.
The expression “MoreyBall” referrs to an offensive philosophy associated with Houston Rockets GM Daryl Morey, which seeks to minimize if not eliminate the mid-range two-point shot from a team’s arsenal. As threes and layups are, on average, the most efficient shots in the game, shooting only threes and layups should make for the most efficient offense, or so the theory goes. There is something to this theory. Simple math dictates that large numbers of shots from an area where the league as a whole shot 39.4% last season aren’t a good thing. But the relationship isn’t that straightforward, as the mix of talent on a given team has as much if not more of an effect on the teams shooting as simply the shot locations. Across all thirty teams, there was a positive correlation between Morey-friendly shots and Effective Field Goal % (EFG):
As the graph shows, Memphis had the lowest “MoreyBall percentage” in the NBA last year, as their general aversion to shooting threes and reliance on the midpost games of Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph meant that only 50.54% of their shots came from the area at the rim or from 3. To put it another way, Memphis “led” the league with 49.46% of their shots coming from NOT these areas. Which brings us to today’s topic, the Los Angeles Lakers.
Many people have had a little fun with Byron Scott’s claims that three pointers don’t win championships[1. San Antonio, the 2012/13 Miami Heat and Dallas would all disagree as only the 2011/12 Heat of the last 4 champions has taken significantly fewer than league 3s than league average. Last year’s Spurs were very slightly below average while the 2nd Heat title team and the Mavs were 6th and 5th in long-range attempts respectively.], and that the Lakers are going to attempt only 10-15 per game in order to better, in his words, “attack the basket.”
In preseason the Lakers have certainly taken his words to heart, shooting only 8.4 threes per game.
So how well does this strategy work in the real world? Can a team really attack the basket more simply by limiting threes? Signs point to no. Consider that since 1997, the proportion of shots taken at the rim has remained relatively constant, even as the use of the three pointer skyrocketed:
The slight dip between 1998 and 2004 probably had far less to do with the relatively minor elevation in three-point attempt rates (less than a 2% change) and more to do with the degree of physical contact allowed on the perimeter. It’s not a coincidence that every year since the NBA reinforced the prohibition on hand checking in 2004 has seen a higher rate of attempts at the rim than the years immediately prior.
In fact, three-pointers are largely coming at the expense of the aforementioned inefficient mid-rangers:
Essentially, since 2000, three-point attempts have risen in tandem with the proportion of two point shots which are in fact “attacking the basket.”
So in general it appears that “three pointers” and “attacking the rim” is not an either/or decision, but a yes/and one.
And the Lakers? Well, it’s only preseason, but remember that 49.56% of shots which came from “Anti-Morey” zones, well here’s a comparison with the Lakers’ through six preseason contests and the most mid-range happy teams from 2013/14:
Only 7 teams have recorded higher percentages of non-rim, non-three-point shot attempts since the NBA started tracking detailed locations in 1996. Five of those were Flip Saunders-coached Minnesota Timberwolves teams in the late 90s and early 2000s, as well as the 2001/02 and 2002/03 Wizards.[2. Featuring a post-athleticism 38 and 39 year-old Michael Jordan. Not that that’s a fact reminiscent of anything about this Lakers squad.] No team has hit 60% of shots from those locations in the past 10 seasons. And while the NBA is certainly a follow-the-trend sort of league, LA’s putrid 35.63% from midrange this preseason suggests Scott isn’t at the forefront of a new way of thinking, but simply a decade behind the times.