TeamSPACE: Time Travelin’
By Matt D'Anna
Thus far in the experiment into Hunting Grounds and the concept of TeamSPACE, we’ve travelled back to last season — 30 times over — to see how each team’s most used lineup shaped up, literally. We learned that better teams tend to use precise areas, with only moderate amounts of overlap. Then, we dove into the starting lineups for every NBA champion since 1996-1997. Over those 18 years, some clear visual patterns emerged, including the influence of generational shifts, coaching philosophies, and the impact/dominance of a superstar player. It’s semi-reasonable to think we’re a bit more educated now about what a good vs. not-so-good offense typically looks like than we were before this offseason began. By now, we should be able to spot some warning signs, such as large swaths of overlap or emptiness. Also, we can recognize traits of strong lineups, including precision and uniqueness across the roles in a squad. We can even quantify some of these differences, and compare them from team to team, season to season. So with this relatively sound base of new information, let’s hop in the wayback machine and do some time travelin’… to the future.
The season is nearly upon us; season previews, prognostications and hot-takes abound. So, instead of previewing every team using this TeamSPACE methodology (am I but one man, really), let’s hone in on the teams most poised for change. Real change. But, selecting the right teams to analyze is actually an important, objective process, so how do we measure this alleged real change? Two important caveats:
First, I am not a fan of arbitrary lists; they drive me nuts. “Top 10” makes zero sense to my brain. Why would we make a completely arbitrary decision about the Top Anything – because 10 is a nice round number? In many cases, it’s really a Top 3 or Top 8 or Top 12, but those feel awkward despite being completely logical. Shouldn’t we really just let the data self-organize and let the Top x naturally surface to the top (this idea goes well beyond sports, but that’s the stuff books are written on, not blogs, I suppose). So we will abandon arbitrary lists here.
Second, the concept of “change” can be hard to define, and also arbitrary. What’s a Major Change vs a Moderate Change vs a Minor Change? The difference could (should!) be relative to each team, but be uniform enough to apply across the league. One big move obviously modifies a lineup, but it’s a singular shift that the other four players can adjust to. More than one move? That causes exponential modifications among the remaining players, as well as the new incoming teammates. It’s really pretty complicated. Case in point: if the Cavs only added Lebron, we could understand the adjustments of the other four players fairly simply, in an almost predictable manner. But then add Kevin Love, and the predictably gets muddy. The remaining three starters have to further refine their refinements, and so does Lebron. Further, despite its buzzword status, “anomalies” are not always what you want to be detecting. Maintaining what you already have may be the most ideal situation; so in some cases the status quo – not changing – is a good thing. Sadly, some things will never change, that’s just the way it is.
So, in order to identify the teams that have changed the most significantly in some non-arbitrary fashion, here are the rules we’ll work with:
- At least two external changes to last seasons’ most used lineup (this does not include shuffling the parts of the same roster; sorry Jazz fans).
- One of those changes is the acquisition or loss of a current All-Star caliber player
Based on these relatively simple criteria, six teams fit the bill: the Cavaliers, Bulls, Heat, Mavericks, Nets, and Timberwolves. That certainly feels more right (er, less wrong) than an arbitrary selection. Simple, logical, and repeatable. What’s interesting is that none of the other lineups in the league will really change that much, barring any other coaching changes (like the Pistons, Knicks, and Warriors), significant injuries (Thunder), or altering philosophies (Lakers, possibly Hornets). That’s an important point: most other teams – roughly 80% of the league – should theoretical not change significantly, when compared to last season.
Now that we know who we are going to study, how will we measure their changes? With TeamSPACE, naturally. First, based on offseason personnel changes, news reports, popular opinion, and some common sense we’ll project this season’s most used lineup. Second, we can calculate the actual changes – gains and losses – in Hunting Grounds. The result is a change detection shot chart. Third, based on overall and overlapping space, we can compare this season’s lineup to the 18 previous champs to determine their best potential match. A, E, I, O, U and sometimes Y.
One last thought before we begin: isn’t it a bit of a contradiction to claim to detect true change by using last years shot data? Doesn’t that fly in the face of all the intricacies and nuances of a team game? No. I say no because I have a relatively unsurprising working hypothesis that has held up with every team I have analyzed thus far: the Hunting Grounds for any given player do not change much over the course of a season, or career – regardless of teammates, coaches, and schemes. Sure, there will be minor variation, as well as potential growth and progression over time, but that analysis is for a future article. For now, we keep it movin’ under the guise that a player’s most recent season is a fairly strong barometer of their activity for the upcoming season.
And with that, let the changes begin:
Cleveland Cavaliers
Lost Jarrett Jack, Luol Deng & Spencer Hawes
Gained Dion Waiters, Lebron & Kevin Love
Caveats: None
Cleveland Cavaliers Last Season vs This Season
Most similar previous champ: 2007-2008 Boston Celtics, eerily similar
Cleveland Cavaliers Gains and Losses
No two charts look more different than the Cavs from then to now (which is funny, given the relative lack of change to their metrics). On paper, it’s a virtual wash: 35% lost space, 32% gained space. Interestingly, that drastic of a “wash” means 1/3 of all their activity is completely changing. The biggest gains come from Kevin Love from the arc and Dion Waiters from the midrange (on second unit minutes; subject to change this season). They do lose a bit on the corners from Deng departing, as well as some top of the key pick and roll shooting; my best guess would have Waiters moving down and out, and possibly a super-small variation of this lineup with Varejo or Matrix for Thompson.
Chicago Bulls
Lost Kirk Hinrich & Carlos Boozer
Gained Derrick Rose & Pau Gasol
Caveats: Small sample size for Derrick Rose
Chicago Bulls Last Season vs Next Season
Most similar previous champ: 2011-2012 Miami Heat, impressively
Chicago Bulls Gains and Losses
Based on Hunting Grounds and spatial tendencies, there may not be a better trade-off in the league. Yes, the Cavs’ changes are more drastic…but this Chicago lineup is spatially beautiful. It is a case study in moderation; nothing appears in excess, which is what a 6% reduction in overlapping space will do for a team. Balance and options, really, which is a healthy change from too much Hinrich and Boozer last season. This is obviously laced with assumptions, namely a healthy Rose and a productive Pau. And unlike the Cavs, the only thing this lineup loses is that pesky extra-long, worst-shot-in-basketball midrange activity.
Oh, darn.
Miami Heat
Lost Shane Battier & Lebron
Gained Loul Deng & Danny Granger
Caveats: Small(ish) sample size for Danny Granger
Miami Heat: Last Season vs Next Season
Most similar previous champ: 2012-2013 Miami Heat (but it’s a stretch)
Miami Heat Gains and Losses
Well this is…interesting. Once again, not much changes on paper – which I’m in the beginning stages of dubbing the Lebron Effect, where nothing looks different except nothing is actually the same anymore. The biggest losses come from behind the arc, which technically represents Battier and Lebron, but symbolically includes Ray Allen (and frankly, Mike Miller from two seasons ago). Luol Deng back fills some of the activity, but in a more traditional, highly precise corner 3-and-D role. There is a bit of speculation on my part that Danny Granger will be the fifth wheel in this lineup; it seems fairly safe if Miami wants to maintain some semblance of 3pt activity. Sure, maybe Josh McRoberts fills that role instead. If it is Granger, I’d expect more of the “Clippers Role Player” and less of “Pacers Go-To Guy,” making Granger and McRoberts potentially interchangeable. The other options (Norris Cole, Birdman??) do not seem realistic for a most used lineup.
Dallas Mavericks
Lost Jose Calderon, Shawn Marion & Samuel Dalembert
Gained Devin Harris (to the lineup), Chandler Parsons & Tyson Chandler
Caveats: None
Dallas Mavericks Last Season vs Next Season
Most similar previous champ: 2005-2006 Miami Heat
Dallas Mavericks Gains and Losses
The Mavs lost significant amounts of activity space; almost 37% of last year’s space, to be specific. Calderon overlapped just about everyone from behind the arc, and Marion nearly blanketed Monta Ellis last season. However, considering how much space they occupied, they gained some valuable precision and room to operate. Parsons was a sniper last season, while he may not operate with the same exactness in Dallas it should still resemble last year. He and Devin Harris are nearly perfectly complimentary. Frankly, this lineup is rather harmonious from deep, with clearly delineated activity. Ellis has more space in the midrange, and Dirk can just keep being Dirk, really.
Brooklyn Nets
Lost Shaun Livingston, Paul Pierce & Miles Plumlee (from the lineup)
Gained Jarrett Jack, Kevin Garnett & Brook Lopez
Caveats: Small sample size for Brook Lopez
Brooklyn Nets Last Season vs Next Season
Most similar previous champ: 2008-2009 Los Angeles Lakers…on a bit of a reach
Brooklyn Nets Gains and Losses
This one’s a bit of a wild card. Recent reporting indicates Lionel Hollins will start Bojan Bogdanovic, and sweet-shooting Mirza Teleovic is certainly in the mix as well; however, Hollins also has a history of loyally favoring veterans. So pending injuries, fatigue, and coach discretion, we’ll roll with this lineup. Realistically, the Nets were already on the wrong side of crowded last season…and now it’s projecting to be more cramped in Brooklyn. The Nets are the only team analyzed here that will increase the amount of court space they occupy. In a weird twist, KG basically replaces Paul Pierce this season, resulting in more room for D-Will and Joe “7-time All-Star” Johnson to shoot from long-range. What they gain in space from behind the arc, they lose in the midrange: Brook Lopez (healthily, hopefully) is a more diverse scorer than Plumlee.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Lost Corey Brewer & Kevin Love
Gained Andrew Wiggins & Thad Young
Caveats: Andrew Wiggins shot data based on freshman season at Kansas University
Minnesota Timberwolves Last Season vs Next Season
Most similar previous champ: I can’t. I’m sorry, it’s just not fair on this one.
Minnesota Timberwolves Gains and Losses
The Wolves promise to be fast-paced, young (literally and figuratively), and exciting this season. However, they are losing something every team seems to covet (except the Lakers, I suppose): 3pt shooting, from all the popular spots (corners, wings). Kevin Martin does covers one side of the court from midrange to the arc, but the other side is really full of…youthful optimism and opportunity?? Among other things, last season the Sixers had this weird affinity for top of the arc 3s (see Hawes, Spencer; Young, Thaddeus). So the Wolves are “gaining” that, FWIW. For now, it’s seemingly a team built for transition (again, literally and figuratively).
So What?
Well, a few things:
- I am not a Bulls fan, but it am legitimately excited to watch that lineup hum on both sides of the ball. It has the potential to be marvelous.
- Seemingly Dion Waiters, and to a lesser extent Kyrie Irving, will reduce his footprint…or will he? Very curious to see what the Cleveland most used lineup shakes out to be; lots of similar parts, all potentially successful.
- The Mavs could be absolutely deadly. Ironically, there initially look like a less-drastic version of…Houston. WITH Dirk. Wow.
- How will Miami look on Wade’s rest nights? Do they go with two PGs, and Granger/Deng step up?
Overall, there are some clear observables to watch for as the season begins. How change actually plays out for any of these six teams should result in some interesting plot lines over the next 82 games.
Data and photo support provided courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball-Reference.com, Austin Clemens, and Darryl Blackport.