Numbers to Know: 243.3

October 21, 2014; Oakland, CA, USA; Golden State Warriors center Festus Ezeli (31) is congratulated by guard Andre Iguodala (9) and guard Stephen Curry (30) for recording a block against the Los Angeles Clippers during the first quarter at Oracle Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

With the Opening Night just around the corner, Nylon Calculus is previewing the upcoming season by taking you through some of the most important numbers to know, numbers that help tell stories about players, teams and league-wide trends.

The Golden State Warriors were the worst passing team in the NBA last season.

That’s of course complete nonsense, but the 243.3 passes per game thrown by the Dubs in 2013/14 were the fewest in the league by a decent margin. With four of their five starters being regarded as excellent passers, along with the heady Draymond Green and the addition of point-whatever Shaun Livingston, not taking advantage of the team’s passing acumen seems a silly way to run a railroad. The lack of emphasis on ball movement probably contributed both to the Warriors finishing only 12th in offensive efficiency in 2013-2014 and Mark Jackson ultimately being dismissed from the club.

Of course not all “passing” is created equal. Simply tossing the ball around the perimeter more wouldn’t help the team.  In terms of what might be termed “productive” passing, the Warriors fared slightly better. Their “potential[2. Potential assists includes actual assists and plays where an assist would have been recorded if the shot had been made] assist percentage”[1. Simply the ratio of assist chances to field goal attempts] (PA%) was 22nd last year, even with the team’s low number of total passes. Still, PA% tracks somewhat with passes per game:

Why is this important? Well, across the NBA, there was an 18.9 percentage point gap in eFG% between potentially assisted and unassisted shots, the former converted at a studly 59 percent while unassisted shots dropped at 40.1 percent clip. The exact split varied enough from team to team that PA% wasn’t much of a determinant in differences in EFG between teams:

Still, assuming shots were made at a fairly constant rate, every team in the NBA would improve their percentage if they could move shots from the unassisted bucket to the potentially assisted. This was more true for Golden State than for most teams. The Warriors were second in the league in eFG% on potentially assisted shots, while boasting the third largest gap between assisted and unassisted eFG shooting%. To put it in simpler terms, a team with players like the Splash Brothers setting teammates up for shots is a Really Good Thing:

All else being equal, if Golden State improved merely to an NBA average portion of their shots being potentially assisted[2. 53%, up from 51.1%], it would have been worth about 2.3 points per game in improved offense. This “bonus” would have put Golden State roughly equal to Oklahoma City for the seventh ranked offense in the league and left them with a Net Rating equivalent to the Clippers runner-up spot. In other words, the it could have been the difference between being merely a very good team and an elite one.[3. There are a lot of minor simplifications and assumptions built into this calculation. It is meant to be illustrative rather than an exact reckoning.]

To this end, by observation and all reports, Golden State has largely moved away from the plodding isolation and static post-up heavy half court sets favored by Jackson. In their place is a greater emphasis on ball and player movement.  If this increased movement does in fact translate to Golden State coming closer to matching their offensive potential, the Warriors might indeed be legitimate threats to win the stacked West.