Oct 14, 2014; Cleveland, OH, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers forward Kevin Love (0) is congratulated by forward Mike Miller (18) and guard Joe Harris (12) in the first quarter against the Milwaukee Bucks at Quicken Loans Arena. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports
With the Opening Night just around the corner, Nylon Calculus is previewing the upcoming season by taking you through some of the most important numbers to know, numbers that help tell stories about players, teams and league-wide trends.
Since 2000, the West has been the NBA’s superior conference. Their teams have finished a combined 0.500 or worse in non-conference play only once, but last season felt like a tipping point in how good or bad one conference could possibly be. The 2014 West finished 284-166 against the East with a win percentage of 0.630, but those numbers should’ve been even better.
Enter Pythagorean wins, losses, and win percentage. They’re often used to measure single teams and tend to point out lucky or unlucky teams over the course of a season. The 2014 Minnesota Timberwolves are one of the best examples, their actual record (40-42) straying eight games from their Pythagorean one (48-34).
Since the formula involves points scored and allowed, I used it to see how the 2014 West and nine other dominant conferences since 1951[1. Shameless plug, but a couple weeks ago I posted all non-conference records and point differentials since 1951.] compared with how they were expected to. The table below is sorted by Pythagorean win percentage:
With the help of a rare +4 point differential or higher, the 2014 West’s Pythagorean win percentage of 63.85% was the highest mark in over 40 years. Back in 1972, the NBA had only 17 teams and the West’s non-conference numbers were aided by the Milwaukee Bucks re-alignment the season before. Even with a little bad luck on the scoreboard and the 2004 West making a significant impact of their own, 2014’s version has a case as the most dominant conference of the modern era.
For those curious, below is a chart of the West’s actual and Pythagorean win percentage since 1951 (click to enlarge):
It looks like the West was better in the ‘60s and ‘70s and worse in the ‘90s than actual non-conference records indicate. The ‘50s and ‘80s were the least swingy decades while the last 15 years, though up and down, don’t heavily favor one conference over another overall.
The chart also shows that while the West remains loaded, it’s difficult for either conference to sustain a Pythagorean or actual win percentage better than 60 for consecutive seasons. The East looks improved anyway thanks to a title threat in Cleveland, hopefully another healthy one in the Chicago Bulls, and an arguably more appealing middle of the pack overall. The top 10 teams still don’t measure up to the playoff hopefuls out West, but the 2015 East should be pretty bad instead of historically bad.
Given the last 15 seasons, that’s all we can ask for.
All statistics were from Basketball-Reference and NBA.com.