Oct 22, 2014; Memphis, TN, USA; Memphis Grizzlies center Marc Gasol (33) reacts to a call during the game against the Cleveland Cavaliers at FedExForum. Memphis defeated Cleveland 96-92. Mandatory Credit: Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports
With the Opening Night just around the corner, Nylon Calculus is previewing the upcoming season by taking you through some of the most important numbers to know, numbers that help tell stories about players, teams and league-wide trends.
Heading into next season, with the possible rise of a healthy Denver Nuggets or New Orleans Pelicans team, many people are asking what playoff team from the West last season would be most likely to fall out. Many people are answering with the Memphis Grizzlies.
It makes some sense to peg the Grizz as a team likely to fall out. They were the seventh seed last season and only missed falling out of the playoffs by two games. They’re about as small market as teams get and aren’t particularly fun to watch for the casual man, making them vaguely unpopular. Wanting them to be the team that falls out in favor of what’s sure to be a fun Nuggets or Pelicans squad is probably natural for a lot of people.
It’s also easy to forget, however, that the Grizzlies still made the playoffs with a cushion of two wins despite not having their best player with the team for over two months. It’s also easy to forget that the Grizzlies were the best team in the NBA for the month after Marc Gasol returned from injury.
In the three or so weeks after Gasol’s return from injury, the Grizzlies had a net rating of 8.2, meaning that the Grizzlies outscored opponents by an average of 8.2 points per 100 possessions. That’s a mark that led the league very comfortably for that stretch of time.
In fairness, Memphis did regress a bit from that league-leading mark, but that winning stretch wasn’t exactly a fluke either. Memphis is a borderline elite team in the West. There’s a reason that Memphis took the Oklahoma City Thunder to seven games, and might have won, were it not for a controversial Game 7 suspension of Zach Randolph.
Memphis is a particular interesting case, though, in that their potential elite status is much more tenuous than most teams. Memphis’ success is predicated on being the best defensive team in the league, and having an offense that is just good enough to grind out wins[1. Memphis was 3rd in defensive efficiency for most of last season, behind the Bulls and Pacers, but if you compensate for the difference in average offensive efficiency in the West versus in the East, the Grizzlies were actually the best defense in the NBA]. Given the difficulty of the West, and the particular construction of the team, if just one player drops off, either of those conceits could immediately fail, setting the Grizzlies up for some trouble.
The Grizzlies are (potentially) the best defense in the league because they have the best defensive backcourt in the league backed up by pick-and-roll defender extraordinaire Marc Gasol. If either of Mike Conley or Tony Allen is hurt for an extended period, suddenly that backcourt is just “really good,” defensively, not “elite.” Similarly, if Gasol goes down, the Grizz have to rely on the backcourt much more than is healthy.
Consider:
On the other hand, every single one of those players went out for extended stretches last season, and the Grizzlies still were the third best defense in the league for last season.
But the same thing is true of the offense. The Grizzlies construct wins by leveraging a tough offensive setup into something with acceptable efficiency. Without the right roster, that system could fall apart.
The Grizzlies had the league’s least efficient shot selection by location, per Nylon Calculus’ and Ian Levy’s XPPS , with a paltry 1.022 expected points per shot. However, they ended the season with a very average “actual” efficiency of 1.057 PPS.
The result is an offense that is very good at generating good looks out of typically inefficient attempts.
A lot of that hinges on the fact that the Grizzlies shot the fewest three’s in the league last season, but were 15th in the league in 3PT% thanks to the off-ball and off-the-dribble strengths of both Courtney Lee and Mike Miller, as well as Randolph’s low-post proficiency and Mike Conley’s capacity for hitting difficult floaters. Relying on being “better than expected” to have a passable offense is, perhaps, not a winning strategy.
All of that said, if the Grizzlies can maintain a top defense and can at least be top 15 in offensive efficiency, this is a team that could absolutely return to that 8.2 net points per 100 possessions mark.
And expecting them to keep it together is not unrealistic, either. The Grizzlies have replaced Mike Miller with Vince Carter, and for all of Miller’s success on the roster last season, he’s a defensive disaster, and is not much — if at all — better than Vince Carter on offense. Their shotcharts are remarkably similar, Miller’s strength at the basket aside, though Vince is a much better passer, foul drawer, and off-the-dribble shooter:
That Vince will probably be able to play far more minutes than Miller bodes well for the Grizzlies maintaining both the offense and defense. It bodes well, too, for the possibility of not playing Tayshaun Prince extended minutes, which would be a godsend for Memphis.
Quincy Pondexter’s return from injury, too, buys this team a lot of flexibility on both ends.
For all the apparent precariousness of the roster, this is a team whose ability to dominate defensively is a near guarantee, and whose tenuousness offensively is being increasingly mitigated over time.
That the Grizzlies had a stretch as the best team in the league last season was not just a fluke, perhaps, but maybe a bit of a warning of things to come. Not to say that the Grizzlies will be the best, by any means, but they will be very, very good, and absolutely should not be taken lightly.