The Square Root of Meh: 2014-2015 Real Plus-Minus Based Win Projections

May 1, 2014; Oakland, CA, USA; Golden State Warriors forward Andre Iguodala (9) is congratulated by forward Draymond Green (23, right) after making a three-point basket while being fouled by Los Angeles Clippers forward Blake Griffin (32, not pictured) during the fourth quarter in game six of the first round of the 2014 NBA Playoffs at Oracle Arena. The Warriors defeated the Clippers 100-99. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

[Ed Note: A version of this article also appears in the Hardwood Paroxysm Season Preview]

Here’s an explanation/glossary, followed by the table you’ve all been waiting for, my Win Projections for the 2014-2015 NBA season.

Projected (Adjusted) Net Rating: Expected team point differential per 100 possessions. This is based on RPM projections (derived from prior seasons RPM, age, and other statistical factors), diminishing returns (combining tons of offensive players has a limit to its efficacy), lack of offense (a bunch of screeners who rate well in RPM don’t help your team as much) and other small details. Also the minutes each player gets are projected based on prior seasons, expected rotations, and injuries.

Projected Wins: This is the number of games I expect each team to win, based on Adjusted Net Rating and Schedule.

Starters* per-100: Per-100 point differential expected by the players I project to be in the top 5 of minutes played. Varejao, for example, projects less minutes than 5 other Cavs, so he is not included in this figure.

Starters* (Total): This is the above statistic, multiplied by percentage of the game that they will play in total. Effectively, it’ is their season-long contribution to the adjusted Net Rating.

Bench (Total): This is all other players’ projected season long contribution to the Adjusted Net Rating.

Playoff Odds: I set up a simple simulation that just counts what percentage of the time we expect a team to make it into the top-8 of their respective conference standings. Tiebreakers, etc were ignored.

Playoff Rating: This is mainly Net Rating, adjusted for shortened rotations. some coaches will do this better than others, which I did not measure. Also, it assumes that most currently injured players (i.e. KD) will play normal minutes when the Second Season rolls around.

Click to enlarge

Here I answer your PAQs (Probably-Asked-Questions):

Q: How the crap is Indiana 7th in the East? And with an 80% chance of making the playoffs? Lol u jokin bro.

A: It’s true that this differs significantly from common wisdom and Vegas’s projections. But RPM thinks that Indiana’s non- Paul-George players are exceptional. George Hill (projected +2.4 RPM) and David West (projected +3.2 RPM) expect to at least serviceably fill Paul George’s +3.1 (projected) real-plus-minus absence. Furthermore, almost *all* of Indiana’s bench is above replacement level. With the exception of near-worst-in-the-league Donald Sloan, Indiana’s bench is a mere “meh”, which is far better than the league average (the square root of “meh” ***). In math terms, Indiana’s bench figures to subtract 4.8 points per 100 from their starting five’s +3.5. In the East, you can be slightly below zero and make the playoffs. You’ll also note that their win total is higher than Atlanta’s despite a worse rating – Indiana’s schedule is easier than their middle-of-the-road Eastern conference counterparts. (Edit: not true anymore since I posted this in the Preview! But Indiana does have a slightly higher home-court advantage which is one reason why their win total is slightly better than their Rating suggests).

Q: Golden State is The Best in the West? Better than DAJ/CP3/Blake, better than the reigning champs, and better than the reigning MVP’s insanely over-talented team? Do you have brain cells?

A: Rude. But yes, by my projections, Golden State is hot fire. In my computer’s brain (which has many Excel cells by the way), The Dubs have:

• a criminally underrated Iguodala
• a somehow-still-underrated Steph Curry (6th-best player according to pure RPM last season)
• a probably healthier Bogut
• a significantly improved Harrison Barnes
• an INSANELY underrated Draymond Green (who led all SFs in defensive RPM last season)
• a slightly revamped bench that RPM likes slightly more this season

I would like to add that projecting players with great “intangibles” (i.e. very good plus-minus numbers and not necessarily the box-score stats to back it up) is quite difficult. But my projections are very conservative in scenarios like this, which is why a player like Iguodala drops from 6.6 to 5.4. I think Golden State is the real deal, so long as Iggy starts over Barnes.

To address the other teams you mention, San Antonio figures to regress only slightly, OKC lost the benefit of the doubt with Durant’s injury. But all four of the hyper-contenders in the West (Warriors/Clippers/Spurs/Thunder) are very very close. My margin of error is obviously much larger than the differences here, so honestly it’s a wash.

Q: Okay, fine. But there is no way on God’s orange basketball-earth that the MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES in a post- Kevin-Love era should in any way be better than the LOS ANGELES LAKERS. You know, the team with Kobe Bryant and Jeremy Lin?

A: Okay. It’s pretty fair to be unsettled by this result. We’re all human. Well, except RPM isn’t human. See, RPM looks at this roster and chuckles ferociously:

Steve Nash and Kobe Bryant have not strung together a season of significant minutes since back when Steve played in Phoenix (*sheds a single tear*). Steve Nash is

40 years old

probably out of the league (Please forgive the flippant nature of that sentence. But I do understand its weight.). Kobe is 36 years old. None of the other Lakers except maybe Lin would be considered for a starting gig on a Western Conference playoff team. Sorry Lakers fans. Time to let someone else win for a change.

And as for the Timberwolves…they have: the player who averages the most steals per possession (Rubio), plus-minus darling Thad Young, and a very respectable Corey Brewer and Nikola Pekovic. Wiggins does not project very high as a rookie, but he will be servicable. To be quite honest, the main reason my projections like the Wolves is because RPM famously thinks Ricky Rubio is FAR better at making his team better than his FG% suggests.

Q: Chicago’s bench is bad.

A: Yes.

*** – Yes, I realize that this number is imaginary.