More 2014-2015 NBA Season Win Projections!
Oct 24, 2014; St. Louis, MO, USA; Chicago Bulls guard Derrick Rose (1) looks on during the fourth quarter against the Minnesota Timberwolves at Scottrade Center. The Timberwolves won 113-112. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports
Like Andrew Johnson, I did some season projectin’ for the season starting tonight. The basic method was to take ESPN’s Real Plus-Minus (RPM) numbers and run them through a simple aging curve and then to project out the season minutes. For rookies, I used my own rookie RPM projections[1. based on a regression against each player’s college stats], which I tweeted out earlier this summer:
After establishing each team’s strength using the RPM and minutes projections, I ran them through the schedule to determine projected records for each team. I was not able to account for back-to-backs or anything of that nature. Also, the team strength is relatively static, which is obviously not a realistic assumption, as teams will be weaker or stronger depending on who is injured or available on a given night and the minutes played will vary for a given game correspondingly. Still, these projections are probably a pretty good look at things, if not terribly different than the general consensus. Here are the results:
Some observations:
– Brace yourself, Laker fans. The loss of Steve Nash made an already bad roster even worse. Kobe’s +2 projected RPM is actually pretty good, but the Lakers just get way too many minutes from really awful players. Throwing that lot up against the brutal Western Conference results in the worst projected record in the league. Yes, even worse than the Sixers.[2. It should be noted, however, that the Lakers and the Sixers are basically equivalent in terms of strength, the Sixers just benefit from playing in the East.]
– Subjectively, I expect the Nets and Pacers to be worse than their projections. The Nets are very old and they might fall off worse than even the aging curve suggests. The Pacers have basically no shot creation and lost two of their very best wing defenders. There’s a good chance Frank Vogel, Roy Hibbert, and David West is enough to cobble together a top 10 defense, but their offense is going to stink to high heaven. On the other hand, I’d expect Detroit and Charlotte to over-perform their projections. I’m a very big believer in Stan Van Gundy and Steve Clifford. Clifford has a tough job, though, as the bench talent in Charlotte is very weak. SVG’s Pistons have talent, he just has to maximize it, and I believe he can do that.
– The Bulls come in at 53 wins, as I boosted Derrick Rose’s projection from the roughly 0 RPM I had it at for a long time, to a rosier[3. I’ll show myself out.] +1.5 on the heels of his strong performances to close out pre-season. Yes, Rose had an even better[4. Statistically speaking, at least.] pre-season last year before struggling for 10 games and then tearing his MCL. On the other hand, last year’s pre-season was heavily reliant on trips to the free throw line relative to this year’s strong showing. Last year, Rose got to the line for 9.43 free throw attempts a game against 12 shot attempts for a free throw rate[5. Free throw rate is just free throws attempted divided by shot attempts.] of .785, while this year Rose registered just 4 free throw attempts a game against 11.88 shot attempts for a free throw rate of .337, much more in line with his free throw rates in his last two healthy seasons. [6. Those rates were .348 in 2010-11 and .344 in 2011-12.] Also, I’m a Bulls fan delighted to see Rose back, so sue me[7. Don’t actually sue me, you’d have no cause of action and would waste your money on court filings. LAWYERED!] for trying to be a little optimistic.
– The West is absolutely insane. Literally any of the top 8 teams could win the conference and you shouldn’t be surprised. The projections also don’t figure on any teams rising or falling into or out of the playoff picture, which I basically agree with, all of the basketball cognoscenti’s predictions about Anthony Davis’s world-destroying rise notwithstanding.