Oct 20, 2014; Columbus, OH, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers forward LeBron James (23) spins past Chicago Bulls forward Tony Snell (20) at Value City Arena. Cleveland won the game 107-98. Mandatory Credit: Greg Bartram-USA TODAY Sports
With the Opening Night just around the corner, Nylon Calculus is previewing the upcoming season by taking you through some of the most important numbers to know, numbers that help tell stories about players, teams and league-wide trends.
That’s the target for the most talked about team, in what’s becoming one of the most talked about NBA seasons in recent memory. The legal betting markets have posted 58.5 regular season wins on the board for LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers. Take your shot! Over or under?
The number sat at 58 for much of the summer. News of Kevin Durant’s injury looks to have pushed the market projection up half a win because Cleveland visits Oklahoma City on December 11. Early estimates were that Durant wouldn’t be back in uniform by that date. That means Cleveland moves from being a small road underdog to something near pick-em (as a far range estimate).
At publication time, that 58.5 is the highest projected win total in the league. That doesn’t mean that the market necessarily sees Cleveland as the single best team in the league. They’re the best team in the weaker Eastern conference, where it’s easier to stockpile victories. San Antonio is currently sitting on the board at 57 wins in the tougher Western Conference. It’s assumed right now that San Antonio would be a neutral court favorite over the Cavs, and possibly a championship series favorite even if the Cavs earned home court advantage with the best record.
Stick Cleveland in the West, and San Antonio in the East, and the Spurs would scoot past the Cavs in estimated wins.
On their heels at the top of the ledger are the LA Clippers with a total betting line of 55.5, the Chicago Bulls at 54.5, and the now depleted Oklahoma City Thunder at 54. Cleveland and Chicago are the only Eastern Conference teams projected to break 50 victories. In the West, Golden State currently sits at 51. Dallas is right at at 50 (49.5 in some spots). Memphis and Portland are knocking at the door at 49.
Amongst the many storylines we’ll be covering here at Nylon Calculus through the new season, we’ll be taking a game-by-game approach to see what’s happening with the Cavaliers. There are so many questions entering the new season…
*Can the three ball magnets (James, Kevin Love, Kyrie Irving) find offensive harmony?
*Can the defense deny opposition scoring in a manner befitting a serious contender?
*Will the team run like crazy to exploit its scoring talent, or pace themselves for the playoffs?
*Can a head coach from international basketball (David Blatt) thrive in the NBA?
Either after every game, or after a set of games in an intense schedule hunk, we’ll study the boxscores on these pages to see what we can uncover regarding those questions and any more that make themselves apparent as the season progresses. We’re not going to assume that greatness will be imminent or immediate. But, we want to cover it if it happens. Or better understand what derailed the projected juggernaut.
Everyone will learn a lot about the transition toward the second Lebron era in Cleveland in the first five games of the new season.
Thursday October 30: vs. New York (40.5 projected wins)
Friday October 31: at Chicago (54.5 projected wins, Eastern Finals preview?)
Tuesday November 4: at Portland (49 projected wins)
Wednesday November 5: at Utah (only 24.5 projected wins, but a back-to-back spot)
Friday November 7: at Denver (42 projected wins)
That’s five games in nine days…four of which are on the road…two of which are back-to-backs……one of which is against their biggest Eastern Conference threat. The last two road games are being played at sites where altitude is known to increase home court advantage. Four of the five opponents are currently expected to top 40 wins this season.
GREAT TEST!
There are a lot of reasons to be excited about the new season. That opening gauntlet for Cleveland is certainly high on the list.
Let the games begin!