ShotCaller: An Introduction
By Matt D'Anna
Well, hello there.
Welcome to a new feature we’ve launched for the 2014-2015 NBA season, a little something called ShotCaller. Throughout the season you’ll find posts on the predictability of shot activity for a specific player, for a specific game.
Curious? Allow me to rattle off a brief Q&A:
Wait…what? Pretty cool idea, right? This is based on over 10 years of similar work in completely different fields; most notably crime analysis. Similar to the work on Hunting Grounds and shooting behaviors, event predictions and game forecasts on a specific player is new here, but not new in general.
How exactly are you doing this? Don’t worry, we will get into the nuts and bolts of things as the season progresses. It’s a marathon, not a sprint. For now, know this: the past is usually the best indicator of future behavior.
What player(s) will this involve? For starters, this will focus on Carmelo Anthony, but may increase to other players as the season progresses.
How often will there be new information? Realistically about once per week, roughly (I am still but one, tired man).
What will they look like? Outputs will take on a couple forms: forecasts and predictions. A forecast will usually be released ahead of time on game day, like this one:
Eventually, there will be some real-time tweet-a-thons, featuring shot-by-shot predictions. When that time comes, you’ll be able to follow the action on Twitter at #CalledShot throughout the season. Also, it’s worth noting there’s a notable difference between a forecast and a prediction. In short, it’s the specificity; part of this project is to identify which one, if any, works better over time.
How we will know if it’s actually right? My promise to you: every prediction will be evaluated for accuracy (how close) and precision (how narrow). The results will be available as soon as possible each time. Anyone can make a prediction, but rarely do people evaluate and learn from them, at least publicly.
Um, what about sample size, you nerd? An important thing to remember: this is tactical prediction. The goal is to be less wrong; not necessarily exactly right. Given a set of constrained resources and a limited scope of time in a dynamic environment, we’ll try to be as ‘not wrong’ as possible. The real world isn’t based on 30 cases, and neither is basketball. So you may have to leave some of your statistical biases at the door.
Was that your first forecast a few questions ago? Yes, in fact it was. Here it is again, with some accompanying words:
During the 1st quarter of the New York Knicks season opener against the Chicago Bulls, Carmelo Anthony is expected to take 5 shots; those shots are expected to occur within each of the red ovals.
What? Why? How? Briefly: This is based on a fairly in-depth examination of Carmelo Anthony’s…
- Career shooting during the first quarter of season-openers (green areas)
- Last season’s Hunting Grounds (purple areas)
- Last season’s shooting vs. the Bulls (light blue dots)
Remember this: calling a shot is hard; I mean, it does involve the future. Stay tuned for more. Welcome to ShotCaller, enjoy the ride.
Data and photo support provided courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball-Reference.com, and Darryl Blackport.