Cavonometry Game 1: Up in Chalk!

Oct 30, 2014; Cleveland, OH, USA; LeBron James throw chalk in the air during his pregame ritual prior to the game against the New York Knicks at Quicken Loans Arena. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

There is no way around it, the Cleveland Cavaliers have become the center of the basketball universe. Throughout this season, Nylon Calculus’ resident box score whisperer, Jeff Fogle, will be checking in on them regularly, looking for patterns and trends. This is Cavonometry.

It began with the patented “chalk toss” of LeBron James, but ended with the Cleveland Cavaliers going down as 13-point home chalk (Vegas slang for favorites from back in the days when point-spreads were written on big chalkboards). Game One of the 2014-15 season was a 90-85 loss to the New York Knicks.

This was not the return that LeBron James, the city of Cleveland, or a slew of companies going all out on TV commercials like it was the Super Bowl, were expecting.

A strong start that saw the Cavs lead 21-12 about eight minutes into the game was followed by a couple hours of disjointed sluggish play on both sides of the court. Cleveland was outscored 78-64 after that hot start…by a visitor that may not be playoff caliber…who was on night two of a back-to-back…and was still trying to figure out where they were supposed to be on both offense and defense.

This wasn’t a 5-point loss to San Antonio! It was a loss to what might turn out to be a mediocre team in the lesser of the two NBA conferences. We’ll be studying the 2014-15 campaign for the Cavaliers from a boxscore perspective all season long here at Nylon Calculus. Let’s run the numbers from the opener…

New York 90, Cleveland 85

Two-Point Percentages: New York 54%, Cleveland 50%

Three-Pointers: New York 6/12, Cleveland 9/24

Free Throws: New York 15/18, Cleveland 17/20

Rebounds: New York 35, Cleveland 33

Turnovers: New York 15, Cleveland 19

So much to talk about. Best to use bullet points.

*Cleveland’s disjointedness on offense shows up most in the turnover category. They lost the ball 19 times in a slow game. This was basically a halfcourt battle the whole second half. They shot well when getting a shot off. But there were far too many possessions where ball-handlers ran into trouble, or tried to force passes when there weren’t clear passing lanes. LeBron James led the team with eight, but each starter had at least two.

*Kevin Love rebounded well, ending the night with 14 boards. But, the team as a whole was outrebounded by a couple. Anderson Varejao only had one defensive rebound in 27 minutes. If Love is just getting a lot of the rebounds Varejao would have been getting anyway when both are on the floor, this is going to be an area of concern for the forseeable future.

*Cleveland’s defense was a step slow all night long, letting a team that was exposed by Chicago the prior evening as a “work in progress” shoot 54% inside the arc. And, obviously the Knicks were getting many open looks from deep if they shot 50% from long range. It was widely assumed coming in that the Cavs would have defensive issues given the skill sets of their starting lineup. Playing this poorly was a surprise. Though, Cleveland did at least force a high number of turnovers in a low tempo game.

*The TNT announcers talked about bench scoring a lot. If this game is any indication, the Cavs could be in real trouble with its backups this season.

Bench Scoring: New York 41, Cleveland 12

That’s in only 51 bench minutes for the Cavs, compared to 120 for New York. The scoring ratio is much more dramatic than the minute ratio. Both LeBron James and Kyrie Irving played 43 minutes! On night one of a back-to-back! This is a horrible development for a team that wants to pace themselves for the long haul. Love played 38 minutes. They couldn’t beat New York with the studs staying on the floor most of the night.

A final boxscore note: Cleveland had some great fast breaks on outlet passes from Kevin Love…but fast break scoring only ended up in a 10-10 tie. New York took that threat away for the most part down the stretch. That suggests most quality opponents will be able to do the same. And, James and Irving may be less inclined to go deep if they have to play 43 minutes all the time.

It’s only one game. And, James in particular will rarely play this badly going forward. But, this result was so far away from expectations that a recalibration of the “getting to know each other” curve may be in order. We’ll learn more about that Friday night when the tired starting unit of the Cavs must play in a back-to-back on the road against the Chicago Bulls. There was growing sentiment in recent days from some in the media that the Bulls were the “true” #1 in the East to start the season (though betting markets projected 58.5 wins for Cleveland, 54.5 for Chicago). Early data points from a two-day tango with the Knicks are making that seem more likely.

Who will make a statement Friday? We’ll review the debate when Cavonometry returns early Saturday with numbers and notes.