Oct 29, 2014; Salt Lake City, UT, USA; Utah Jazz guard Alec Burks (10) dribbles the ball during the second half against the Houston Rockets at EnergySolutions Arena. The Rockets won 104-93. Mandatory Credit: Russ Isabella-USA TODAY Sports
On Friday, it was announced that Alec Burks and the Utah Jazz had agreed to a four-year, $42 million dollar extension. Ben Dowsett broke down the actual value of the contract for BBallBreakdown, finding that Burks’ statistics through three seasons compared favorably to players like DeMar DeRozan and that, although the cost seems steep now, his probable development and future increases in the salary cap could make this deal a great value in the long run.
I tend to agree with Dowsett and for anyone who has questions about this deal, it’s important to understand exactly what kind of player Burks is and what he gives the Jazz.
Burks’ per 36 minute numbers last season—17.9 points, 4.2 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 1.1 steals—are strong and, having come in 28.1 minutes per game, feel like a reasonable facsimile of what he could put up in starter’s minutes. His Offensive Real-Plus Minus, of +1.43, estimated him as the 19th most-impactful shooting guard in the league last season (although ESPN has him classified as a point guard). You can see from his shot chart that most of his offensive activity is centered around the basket. Burks has some hot spots around the three-point line, particularly in the left corner, and is very efficient as a finisher.
That activity around the basket is especially important in understanding Burks’ offensive impact, because many of those shots are self-generated. Last season about 45 percent of Burks’ shot attempts came within five feet of the basket, and only 35 percent of his made shots inside of five feet were assisted on. That ability to get himself to the basket and collapse the defense is what really separates him from many of his peers.
Last season Burks averaged 7.1 drives[1. Defined as any touch that starts at least 20 feet from the basket and is dribbled to within 10 feet] per 36 minutes and, as a team[1. Including points scored by Burks as well as assists and secondary assists resulting from his drives], the Jazz scored an average of 1.24 points per drive on those plays. Both of those numbers ranked in the 87th percentile among the 256 players who played at least 500 minutes last season, with at least 30 total drives. The graph below illustrates where he sits among his peers in both quantity and quality of his drives.
That penetration ability is extremely important to the Jazz, especially with the way their roster is currently constructed. Gordon Hayward struggled playing the role of primary creator last season. The team is hoping Dante Exum will be an asset in this area, but not many other players on the roster count dribble penetration as a strength. Of the team’s other backcourt players we can see a few who got into the teeth of the defense semi-regularly, but none who generated as much efficient offense from those drives as Burks did.
The Jazz are a team without a transcendent offensive talent. There is plenty of skill on the roster but it is divided among several players. Becoming a top-tier offense over the next few seasons will require blending those different skills in complementary ways. Burks may never develop into the kind of player who can singlehandedly carry their offense, but his penetration abilities can help elevate the shooting of Hayward and Burke, the rolling and cutting games of Derrick Favors and Trevor Booker and give space for Exum to learn the nuances of attacking an NBA defense.
The other end of the court is another story for Burks at this point. His Defensive Real Plus-Minus was -1.68, an estimate that says his shortcomings as a defender more than negated his strengths on offense. He generates a fair number of steals but has a tendency to get lost off the ball and doesn’t consistently contain penetration. Making himself into a better outside shooter would raise his offensive ceiling, but making himself into a capable defender is what sets his overall ceiling.
In the end, the Jazz evaluated the market, both now and for the future, deciding to lock down a productive young player, with room for growth and one elite skill that happens to be in short supply on their roster. Alec Burks’ ability to get to the basket and make good things happen is what makes him valuable to the Jazz.
Statistical support for this story from NBA.com/stats