The Houston Rockets are Shooting Threes at an Absurd Pace

Nov 4, 2014; Miami, FL, USA; Houston Rockets guard James Harden (13) takes a half court shot as Miami Heat forward Chris Bosh (1) defends during the first half at American Airlines Arena. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Last we left the Houston Rockets this offseason, they were at a crossroads in their franchise development. They had unloaded Omer Asik and Jeremy Lin to clear cap space, then were spurned by Chris Bosh in free agency. Chandler Parsons also left for rival Dallas and they ended up signing a major deal with Trevor Ariza … for a second time.

The common narrative – and yes, it was a much-stated narrative – was that perhaps stats wizard Daryl Morey had over-thought matters. He had made his team worse out of a fanciful dream of adding a third star to the core of Dwight Howard and James Harden. He had sabotaged his short-term for some unknown long-term.

Well, all that talking only means so much. Let’s ask Twitter to see how things are going for the Rockets through five games:

Oh. OK. That’s neat.

Sounds about normal. Proceed.

Good god almighty.

Yes, you read that correctly. The Rockets, those poor sad Rockets that missed out on a superstar and lost three key rotation players, are currently the NBA’s best team. It’s very, very early, but they’re not just beating opponents, they’re destroying them. And they’re doing it in uber-Morey fashion.

Thus far, they’re taking an earth-shattering number of three pointers. In five games, 10 percent more of their field goal attempts are occurring beyond the arc. And they already led the league in this category last season!

This three-point attempt increase is not coming entirely from fewer inefficient two-point dead zone shots. Instead, the Rockets are currently only at a league average pace in attempting shots inside the restricted area. They’re now focusing the aspects of “Morey Ball” as merely a relationship between fewer bad twos and more threes, not necessarily also including more good twos in the conversation. What could be the cause of this?

To a certain extent, it is possible Morey and Houston learned this from their D-League Rio Grande Valley Vipers. As Grantland’s Jason Schwartz and Kirk Goldsberry shared in February, this squad was very much used for experimental purposes. They shot a staggering 47 percent (!) of their attempts from three last year. Yes, they also took 38 percent from the restricted area – thus, only 15 percent from other twos – but the three rate was the most astounding number.

On another hand, maybe coach Kevin McHale just realized the inefficiency of dumping the ball into the post to Dwight Howard so frequently. Synergy Sports Technologies might not be public anymore, but those possessions certainly weren’t as efficient as a three-point shot or a Harden drive. You’ll just have to trust me there, sans easy-to-pull data.

And finally, the swap from Parsons to Ariza might also have led to a strategy change for more threes. Ariza was way more efficient – perhaps thanks to John Wall’s corner three passing – as a long-range shooter in Washington. He’s been scorching hot so far and is taking 70 percent of his shots from three. Could he just be getting better and better?

To top it all off, Harden is currently averaging 12.8 free throw attempts per game, too. That number would rank ninth-highest in NBA history, let alone for 25-year-old 6-foot-6 shooting guards. And perhaps most impressive of all is Houston’s defense, currently ranking fifth in the defensive rating category at 95.5. Last year’s 103.2 mark wasn’t terrible, but at 12th in the league, it wasn’t going to be good enough to be for true contender status.

While we’ll see if that defense and free throw rates can hold, it’ll be most fascinating to keep an eye on Houston’s shot distribution long term. They’re trading short attempts for more and more long attempts. Morey Ball is evolving and the early results are certainly exhilarating.