Are the Rockets Contenders, Or Just Bullies?

Nov 4, 2014; Miami, FL, USA; Houston Rockets guard James Harden (left) talks with center Dwight Howard (right) during the second half against the Miami Heat at American Airlines Arena. The Rockets won 108-91. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

The Houston Rockets are off to one of the more impressive starts in the NBA. 5-0, with a +15.2 net rating, an offense humming along with the third best overall efficiency paired with a, thus far, stifling defense—there’s a lot to like. Trevor Ariza has (substantially) more than matched the level of production Houston would have expected from the departed Chandler Parsons. Dwight Howard appears back to his best, and James Harden’s free throw pop-a-shot game is in full effect.[1. Interestingly, Harden’s FT drawing “stuff” does seem to continue to work in the playoffs. His per 36 free throw attempts decline only very slightly during his two playoff runs with Houston from his regular season attempts averages, though he has shot the ball extremely poorly from the floor in both of Houston’s first round exits during his tenure.]

So why am I not sold? Essentially, they are unlikely to duplicate their offensive success against teams which make fewer mistakes.

The Morey Ball philosophy of threes and rim attacks is great, so far as it goes. Those are the most efficient shots in the game, so on and so forth. This is not exactly new information, and the fact that it is well-known and extensively discussed has important implications: the defense knows these things as well. As Charles Barkley likes to say (and I really like to repeat) “them guys getting paid too.”

Still, on a nightly basis, against the full gamut of NBA teams, the Rockets’ strategy can work wonders. Last season overall, Houston finished third in effective field goal percentage, trailing only the two conference champions in Miami and San Antonio. They did this by shooting by far the fewest “Non-MoreyBall” shots in the league — just over 27 percent of their shots came from the donut of despair between the restricted area and the three point arc.

However, the operative word is “overall.” Championships are not won by taking advantage of the poor individual defenders of the Los Angeles Lakers or the nonsensical schemes of the Detroit Pistons and so forth. When facing the defensive cream of the NBA, the Rockets struggled last season. An offense designed to take advantage of errors but less well-equipped to force defensive breakdowns was less effective against those teams which were less gaffe-prone.

Of course, all teams do worse when being better guarded, that’s what makes high ranking defensive teams rank highly. But Houston’s rate of drop off in some key areas was greater, by a large margin in some cases, than the average squad’s drop in production.

To examine this effect, I looked at a team’s overall performance in terms of both shot distribution and effectiveness. By comparing teams season-long stats with the numbers accumulated in games against Indiana, Chicago, San Antonio, Golden State, Charlotte, Oklahoma City, Washington, Memphis, the Clippers and Toronto (the ten best defenses by DRTG in that order)[2. None of whom Houston has played so far, it is worth noting], Houston’s performance saw the drops among the largest of any team on a number of measures:

When compared to the top contenders last season, (and to playoff teams in general), Houston performed poorly even relative the expected declines when facing top defenses. In terms of overall shooting, taking a proportion of shots from the midrange, three point percentage, both proportion of shots taken at them rim and accuracy on those shots, Houston showed large declines. All told, these deficiencies amalgamated into the extremely steep decline “Morey” efficiency from the Rockets, the very shots the team is designed (some would say engineered) to maximize.

With all due respect to Ariza and his hot start, there is nothing about his game which suggests he can reverse this trend. Until Houston shows the ability to beat up on a championship caliber defense, it is probably safe to remain skeptical of their status as legitimate contenders.