Cavonometry Game 5: Rocky Mountain High

Nov 7, 2014; Denver, CO, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers forward Tristan Thompson (13) watches as guard Dion Waiters (3) takes a shot against Denver Nuggets forward Danilo Gallinari (8) and center JaVale McGee (34) and forward Kenneth Faried (35) in the first quarter at the Pepsi Center. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

There is no way around it, the Cleveland Cavaliers have become the center of the basketball universe. Throughout this season, Nylon Calculus’ resident box score whisperer, Jeff Fogle, will be checking in on them regularly, looking for patterns and trends. This is Cavonometry.

The Cleveland Cavaliers offense went a mile high Friday night and might have learned how to soar in a 110-101 victory over the Denver Nuggets.

A harmonic convergence helped create Cleveland’s most impressive performance of the young season. They clearly came ready to play, focused on bringing energy on both sides of the floor. Denver star Ty Lawson was a late scratch because of soreness in his tender left ankle. And, Denver’s been awful this year!

The Cavaliers led 38-20 after the first quarter. They had 9 assists on 13 baskets (compared to 6 on 30 last time out in Utah). They led fast break scoring 12-0 against the team that was supposed to try and run them out of the gym. Two-point shooting after a quarter was 71 percent for Cleveland (12 of 17), 31 percent for Denver (5 of 16).

That was mostly the ball game right there…though Denver did get as close as six in the fourth quarter when the Cavs started running out of gas. Dunks and layups refueled the tank in the final minutes and Cleveland celebrated their first 48-minute win in its new era.

Level heads must still prevail though, because Denver has been surprisingly horrible thus far in 2014-15. The Nuggets’ prior’s three games had been an inexplicably helpless loss to the shorthanded Oklahoma City Thunder, a five-point home loss to Sacramento, and then a 22-point road loss to the Kings in the quick revenge spot. Any team that no-shows a revenge spot like that and can’t hang with the current OKC roster is playing at a lottery level. A poor result here for Cleveland would have been a disaster.

Maybe it was just taking candy from a baby. This baby crawled by at just the right time to get Cleveland back on track. The final numbers…

Cleveland 110, Denver 101

Two-Point Percentages: Cleveland 56%, Denver 52%

Three-Pointers: Cleveland 6/23, Denver 11/29

Free Throws: Cleveland 24/33, Denver 10/15

Rebounds: Cleveland 42, Denver 42

Turnovers: Cleveland 8, Denver 13

Clearly Cleveland peaked in the first quarter, which has been a recurring theme for them this season. Check out the scores by quarter in the three games the Cavs played that weren’t night two of a back-to-back. When having at least a day to prepare for a game, they’ve started strong before fading.

25-19-20-26 vs. New York (25, then an average of 21.7 after)

34-16-19-13 at Portland (34, then an average of 18.0 after)

38-20-27-25 at Denver (38, then an average of 24.0 after)

It’s only three games. But, it’s at least worth pondering the likelihood that the team prepares well when there’s time for preparation, but has trouble dealing in-game with opposition adjustments, fatigue, and bench deficiencies.

Improving their assist count was a big story in terms of media coverage, so let’s update that…

Assists/Made Baskets by Game

22 assists on 32 baskets vs. New York

18 assists on 41 baskets at Chicago

18 assists on 31 baskets at Portland

6 assists on 30 baskets at Utah

25 assists on 40 baskets at Denver

63 percent was their assisted basket rate for the game, as a relatively selfish fourth quarter (compared to the earlier stages of the game) dropped the assisted basket percentage below the season high of 69 percent from the opener against the Knicks. Still, it’s a lot better than 20 percent against Utah!

Cleveland ended with an offensive efficiency mark of 114.6 (points scored per 100 offensive possessions, using ACTUAL possessions from play-by-play logs). That’s technically below the 116.3 they posted two nights earlier in Utah. Was this game actually a step backward even though it was prettier to the eye because of all the passing? Did that great first quarter create a temporary illusion of a step forward? Not really. You must factor in the caliber of opposing defense:

Cleveland reached 116.3 at Utah, who allows 116.3 for the season

Cleveland reached 114.6 at Denver, who allows 109.3 for the season

Cleveland topped their opponent’s average by 5.3 points per 100 possessions Friday night in Denver, but only matched what the horrible Utah defense allows to everyone Wednesday.

Deja’ View: Cavs of 2014-15 vs. Heat of 2010-11 (thru 5 games)

Miami 4-1 (+16.6 margin average)

Cleveland 2-3 (-2.2 margin average)

It’s been prominently reported recently that the Miami Heat were only 9-8 in their first 17 games after “The Decision.” Thought it might be fun to monitor the comparison on the fly up to that point over the next few weeks. The 2010-11 Heat were actually fantastic at first before slowing way down. You can see they averaged +16.6 even with a loss in their first quintet. Cleveland had no chance to match that given initial woes. But, 9-8 is sure within reach. Can they also get to Miami’s +6.5 margin edge after game #17? We’ll spend a little time on that in each report. Note that Miami in 2010-11 ignited 9-8 up to 30-9 with an amazing 21-1 run after the mini-slump.

Market Report (thru 5 games)

Cleveland (-13) lost to New York 95-90 (missed by 18)

Cleveland (+4) won at Chicago 114-108 (covered by 4 in regulation, 10 on the night)

Cleveland (-2.5) lost at Portland 101-82 (missed by 21.5)

Cleveland (-5.5) lost at Utah 102-100 (missed by 7.5)

Cleveland (-6.5) won at Denver 110-101 (covered by 2.5)

That’s a 2-3 record against the spread. At the end of regulation, market expectations have been too high by 40.5 points through 5 games.

If you’d like to monitor the pace elements plus offensive and defensive efficiency for the Cavs (or any other team) through the season, please visit our “Team Possession Stats” pages. We’ve made Cleveland the default page on the link. So, you’ll go right to their team log that you can study at your leisure. Use the scroll option to check on your favorite team, or as a tool for analytical purposes across the 30-team playscape. Again, these are based on ACTUAL possession counts, rather than estimates based on varying formulas used by the NBA, ESPN, and Basketball-Reference. Nylon Calculus is tabulating the actual possession counts for increased accuracy.

Our next edition of Cavonometry will go up Tuesday morning after Game 6 is played Monday Night in Cleveland against Anthony Davis and the New Orleans Pelicans.