Nov 7, 2014; Brooklyn, NY, USA; New York Knicks small forward Carmelo Anthony (7) is defended by Brooklyn Nets small forward Joe Johnson (7) during the third quarter at Barclays Center. The Nets defeated the Knicks 110-99. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
I’ll admit it: I was a little high on the New York Knicks this coming season. Yeah, I didn’t know if the “Triangle” would work in 2014 or if Derek Fisher could coach much. But I felt with regression to the mean and hopefully fewer minutes for Andrea Bargnani (see this), that the Knicks could maybe contend for the lowly East’s No. 8 seed.
Then, in their second game against the Cavs. The Knicks looked fairly decent a night after being blown out in Chicago, while the Cleveland All-Stars suffered through their first of many hiccups. If New York could win at The Q, could they perhaps be better than advertised? And with teams like Indiana, Brooklyn and more hobbling, could this playoff shot be more and more realistic?
Nine days later and the Knicks are now 2-4 after an 11-point loss in Brooklyn last night. They narrowly beat Charlotte, and now have lost three straight to the Wizards, Pistons and Nets. Analytically, they have the No. 19 offense (103.8 ORTG, per our team efficiencies using actual possession counts) and the No. 28 defense (112.1 DRTG). They haven’t been good, as the record would indicate. And it’s a second straight year of a disappointing offense, particularly.
This tweet, from Podium Game’s Bryan Gibberman, had me particularly intrigued about how their offense has worked exactly:
As I did with the Houston Rockets on Wednesday, let’s take a look at the distribution of shot attempts for the Knicks so far:
So yes, the Knicks are practically the anti-Houston. They’re have a fairly sizable lead for the NBA’s most frequent mid-range shot-takers. They’re even out-pacing Byron Scott’s Lakers (second at 52.5 percent), Flip Saunders’ Timberwolves (third at 51.4) and Randy Wittman’s Wizards (fourth at 51.2).
Using the principles of Ian Levy’s Expected Points Per Shot model, the NBA average is 0.985 expected points per shot currently. Based only on this given shot distribution, the Knicks are at 0.936. On shot selection alone, they’re costing themselves an expected 4.9 points per 100 shots taken. (New Orleans is a surprise first at 1.038, adding 5.3 expecting points per 100 shots taken based on shot selection because of so many restricted area attempts.)
So Carmelo Anthony’s team could easily lead the league in three-point shooting efficiency, but they’d have to already make up such a gap in overall efficiency because of the team’s entire shot-taking tendencies. Combine that with the league’s second-lowest free throw rate (perhaps related based on proximity to the rim) and you have a recipe for a mediocre offense, at best.
No, Anthony won’t continue to shoot just 38 percent for the season (and maybe he won’t be so predictable). No, hopefully Jason Smith won’t continue to take 90 percent of his shots from mid-range. But the defense still could be pretty bad as well. All things considered, it’s been a rough start to the year for the Knicks. And questions might start be legitimate over whether they’ve got any shot at making a playoff run. Is it time to just start the Marc Gasol free agency chants?