The Value of the Drawn Shot Foul

Nov 1, 2014; Houston, TX, USA; Boston Celtics guard Evan Turner (11) and Houston Rockets guard James Harden (13) during the game at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

In recent seasons, defenses have allowed less free throws and for good reason: They’re the most efficient outcome in basketball. A pair of free throws last season generated an average of 1.51 points, about 0.43 points more than the average three-point attempt.

But while any free throw is valuable, the return of a drawn shot foul is even larger. That’s by default since points per shot foul takes not only free throws into account but the possibility of an and-1 opportunity that gives the scorer an automatic two or three points plus one free throw. And-1s happened on 21.9 percent of drawn shot fouls last season, so compared to the 1.51-point average on two free throws a drawn shot foul led to an estimated 1.80 points[1. I say estimated because some players shoot better or worse when given one FTA.].

Below is a look at the average return on two-point and three-point shot fouls compared to two and three free throw attempts since 2001:

Every line is consistent save for points per fouled three-pointer, which had a significantly smaller sample size[2. Since 2001, fouled threes make up anywhere from 0.9-3.2 percent of all shot fouls, though the highest rate was last season with 755 threes and 23,342 total shot fouls.]. There’s also a larger gap between three free throws and a foul on a three-pointer than two free throws and fouled two-point shots[3. For the average FT% on three free throws, I just took the average FT%*3 even though shooters from that area of the floor usually have an above-average FT%.]. This is because three-point shooters not named Josh Smith are generally above-average from the free throw line. History also says fouled threes normally have a higher chance of an and-1 opportunity than twos:

Percentages from beyond the arc may have dipped in 2011 because of the rip through move changing to a non-shooting foul in 2012. The percentages since then make sense when taking into account what kinds of shot fouls are often committed around the arc: Either after the shot itself or a foul mid-release softer than one committed around the rim. No shooter is deadly enough from three and/or struggles so badly from the line to where a defense would prefer three free throws to the actual field goal attempt.

So it might make sense that players who are strictly jump shooters often lead the league in points per shot foul, though free throw percentage obviously plays an important part. Below are two charts since 2001 looking at that stat with points per shot foul foul, each chart with a labeled player explained further blow where finishing shot fouls made them outliers, or at the very least intriguing. Each chart also had an R^2 just over .80 (click to enlarge).

Labeled in the left chart is Kyle Korver last season, a specific example of why it’s bad news to foul a player who is strictly a jump shooter. He ran quite hot over a small sample, 11-for-21 on shot fouls according to Basketball-Reference and eight four-point plays. Combined with a free throw percentage of 92.6, Korver averaged 3.10 points per shot foul, 0.49 points higher than second-place Anthony Morrow in 2012, minimum 20 shot fouls. Korver was an outlier, but of all players it’s not too surprising to that he’s the only player in the chart to record an average over 3.00[4. 2001 Steve Kerr and 2012 Steve Novak would’ve had higher averages if they drew more shooting fouls. Kerr drew 0, Novak only 3.].

The red dots on the right chart are of a player very different from Korver: Shaquille O’Neal, from 2001 to 2011. While O’Neal was a poor free throw shooter, he was such a force that his and-1 percentage was sometimes nearly twice the league average. It brought his points per shot foul to marks that sometimes resembled that of a 70-75% free throw shooter. Below are O’Neal’s numbers from 2001 to 2006 specifically:

To O’Neals benefit, his success against shot fouls in those six seasons cost him nearly 700 free throws and helped him net an estimated 1,050 points[5. To clarify, this is if Shaq never made any of his drawn shot fouls for and-1 opportunities.]. Being in and around the paint probably helped his and-1 percentage, but there are a ton of bigs over the last 14 seasons who struggled with scoring when fouled. O’Neal could absorb the punishment he took from sometimes multiple defenders at a time, and 2002, 2004, and 2006 are especially ridiculous. O’Neal’s and-1 percentage in 2006 is the second highest mark among players to draw 100 or more shooting fouls in a season, second to none other than 2006 Boris Diaw at 46.73 percent.

Any free throws are hugely valuable, though, and in a lot of cases the swings in points per shot foul and and-1 percentage make it hard to tell how much of it’s because of the scorer. The variety of ways a defender can foul whether soft or strong, the situation that leads to the drawn foul, the continuation rule, and even some luck all play a factor. Players routinely miss fouled layups while other times make miraculous shots. Officials also aren’t perfect, sometimes whistling a shooting foul when a play might’ve just been well-defended and vice versa. It happens. Sometimes it also looks like a success for a player just to receive two free throws on a play, like after drawing contact with a defender falling for a pump fake just as the shot clock was winding down.

Overall, though, exact numbers for points per shot foul further shows how it not only helps scoring, but also how much it can penalize teams for over-fouling. Sure, there are situations when a shooting foul is profitable for a defense like letting an opposing team know that scoring in the paint isn’t going to be pretty, but for the most part great defenses take away the most efficient form of scoring by not fouling.

All statistics are from Basketball-Reference. Special thanks to Darryl Blackport for the help with this post.