Cavonometry Game 6: Arc de Trey-Oomph!

Nov 10, 2014; Cleveland, OH, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers forward Kevin Love (0) during the fourth quarter against the New Orleans Pelicans at Quicken Loans Arena. The Cavaliers beat the Pelicans 118-111. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

There is no way around it, the Cleveland Cavaliers have become the center of the basketball universe. Throughout this season, Nylon Calculus’ resident box score whisperer, Jeff Fogle, will be checking in on them regularly, looking for patterns and trends. This is Cavonometry.

The visitors from the French Quarter found themselves in a three-point shootout Monday Night, on the road, against the Cleveland Cavaliers. Even though the New Orleans Pelicans were an excellent 12-of-27 themselves from behind l’ arc, they failed to keep up with the Cavs from long range…while also getting overpowered inside.

Cleveland outscored and outshot New Orleans on treys, shot better on two-pointers, and earned more trips to the free throw line. A dynamic 67-55 second half statement led to a 118-111 Cavaliers victory.

Cleveland 118, New Orleans 111

Two-Point Percentages: New Orleans 44%, Cleveland 50%

Three-Pointers: New Orleans 12/27, Cleveland 13/27

Free Throws: New Orleans 17/20, Cleveland 25/30

Rebounds: New Orleans 40, Cleveland 45

Turnovers: New Orleans 5, Cleveland 9

Nothing adds more oomph to an offense than a big night on treys. Both offenses were rewarded, and both defenses took a big hit in defensive efficiency in a moderate tempo game that lit up the scoreboard like a track meet. The difference between the teams was that LeBron James kept flying at the basket to create additional offense. He was 8-of-14 on two-point shots and 13-of-17 from the free throw line while dishing out 10 assists on his way to a triple double. He donned his superhero cape in similar fashion to the overtime win at Chicago. Most NBA teams don’t have the antidote to that version of LeBron.

New Orleans was led by Ryan Anderson, who scored only nine of his 32 points in the second half but finished 8-of-12 for the night on treys. Anderson and Anthony Davis were a combined 23-of-40 from the floor. All other Pelicans were 18-of-53. Given the offensive and defensive form of “all other Pelicans,” cracking the playoff brackets in the Western Conference looks like it’s going to be quite a chore.

Important to note that Dion Waiters didn’t play (!). Huge offensive night for the Cavs, and the guy with the questionable shot-taking ethic wasn’t allowed off the bench. It was listed as a coach’s decision in the final boxscore rather than a reported injury. With Shawn Marion playing 30 minutes as a starter, and veteran Mike Miller getting 19 minutes as a sub…you get the sense that James prefers having veteran role players on the floor with him rather than somebody who isn’t fully embracing the team concept.

Let’s update some of our running storylines…

Assists/Made Baskets by Game

22 assists on 32 baskets vs. New York (69%)

18 assists on 41 baskets at Chicago (44%)

18 assists on 31 baskets at Portland (58%)

6 assists on 30 baskets at Utah (20%)

25 assists on 40 baskets at Denver (63%)

27 assists on 40 baskets vs. New Orleans (68%)

The two low outliers both came on night two of a back-to-back. Can’t argue too much with what’s been happening in the other games.

Deja’ View: Cavs of 2014-15 vs. Heat of 2010-11 (thru 6 games)

Miami 4-2 (+13.3 margin average)

Cleveland 3-3 (-0.7 margin average)

Cleveland definitely now looks like a team that can reach or surpass that well-publicized 9-8 start for the 2010 Heat. Margin average is going to be an issue because the defense is soft and the bench is thin. Hard to win runaway blowouts that way. They can win runaway halves when LeBron takes over.

Market Report (thru 6 games)

Cleveland (-13) lost to New York 95-90 (missed by 18)

Cleveland (+4) won at Chicago 114-108 (covered by 4 in regulation, 10 on the night)

Cleveland (-2.5) lost at Portland 101-82 (missed by 21.5)

Cleveland (-5.5) lost at Utah 102-100 (missed by 7.5)

Cleveland (-6.5) won at Denver 110-101 (covered by 2.5)

Cleveland (-5.5) won vs. New Orleans 118-111 (covered by 1.5)

That’s a 3-3 record against the spread. At the end of regulation, market expectations have been too high by 39 points through 6 games. Telling that Cleveland isn’t covering by much when they play well. The market is still treating them like a league power…though pricing and reality are approaching each other at breakneck pace.

If you’d like to monitor pace factor plus offensive and defensive efficiency for the Cavs (or any other team) through the season, please visit our “Team Possession Stats” pages. Cleveland is now the default page on the link. Use the scroll option to check on any other of the 29 pro teams. Nylon Calculus is the only source presenting ACTUAL possession counts, rather than estimates. That means our offensive and defensive efficiency marks are as close to true form as you’re going to get. Spread the word about this advance in analytics! Many thanks to all of you who have already been doing that. It’s greatly appreciated.

Our next edition of Cavonometry will go up midday Sunday after Cleveland finishes a back-to-back at Boston (Game 7) and at home vs. Atlanta (Game 8). This small break in the schedule means the media now has three days to stop talking about Kevin Love leaving…and to start talking about Dion Waiters not playing! See you Sunday.