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ShotCaller is back 1nce again. This time around the analysis covers Friday night’s showdown at Madison Square Garden – Knicks vs. Jazz. And here are the shots that I’m callin’:
During the 1st quarter of the New York Knicks tenth game of the year, against the Utah Jazz on November 14th, Carmelo Anthony is expected to take 7 shots. During the 2nd quarter, Melo is expected to take 3 shots. These shots are expected to occur within each of the orange (1st quarter) and blue (2nd quarter) ovals.
But, why?
Regarding the 1st quarter, here’s a few things to consider:
- Of 799 career regular season games, Melo has taken exactly two 1st quarter shots on 21 occasions (including his most recent game Wednesday night vs. Magic); he averages a 4-5 shot increase his next game.
- Melo rarely ever (like, 2% ever) increases his game-to-game 1st quarter shot count by more than five.
- In his two games vs. Jazz last season, Melo took seven and nine shots.
- Important: Melo never leaps more than 2 levels between games… Remember what a ‘level’ is? This:
- Last game was a Level 1; don’t expect him to exceed Level 3.
Given these rules, he’s taking 7 shots in the 1st quarter against the Jazz.
As for the – new feature! – 2nd quarter, the most obvious relationship to test is 1st quarter shot counts vs. 2nd quarter shot counts. Over Melo’s career, there’s nothing significant cooking; a -0.016 correlation, which is a big dud of relationship. However, there’s a new administration in the Big Apple, and yes we are only nine game into this season, but there is a -0.69 correlation between these two quarters thus far. This value – tentatively called the Fisher Effect – indicates that as one quarter goes up, the other goes down. With a fairly substantial increase expected for the 1st quarter, we should expect a lower 2nd quarter.
Want more evidence? In those same 799 career regular season games, Melo has taken four 2nd quarter shots 159 times (including the Orlando game this week). The next game? Usually the exact same, or a little less (as in one shot less).
More you say? Melo’s 1st half average shot count is 10.
An inverse relationship with 1st quarter shot counts, normally 3-4 shots following a 4-shot 2nd quarter in the last, a 1st half average of 10 shots… we’re looking at a 3-shot 2nd quarter on Friday night.
But where?
Briefly, this analysis fused three datasets: shots from this season, shots from last season vs. Jazz, and career shots. Each was controlled for the 1st and 2nd quarters, respectively, which initially looks like this:
And there you have it.
One more time – here’s what going to happen Friday night at MSG:
Tell your friends, enjoy the game – I’ll be a mess wondering how ‘less wrong’ this turns out.
Data and photo support provided courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball-Reference.com, and data extraordinaire Darryl Blackport.